MLBTR Live Chat with Jeff Todd 1-21-16
It's a crisp and sunny day here in Denver ... spring training not so far off ... let's talk some baseball!
Will the mets add another bat?
Well, aside from some bench piece, perhaps.
What are odds nationals sign cespedes?
Trending up, it would seem.
If I had an extra $50 to burn right now would the smart money be to put it on Cespedes to the Nationals or just another rumor du jour?
Usually don't see these kinds of more involved rumors if there isn't some real action. As things stand right at this moment, reading the tea leaves of how rumors come out and shift and grow (as I do all day, every day), my money would go on the Nats.
Dexter Fowler a good fall back option for the White Sox?
Absolutely - could be a CF or corner option. I get the feeling they are waiting for a deal to come to them on a player, rather than trying to identify the "right guy" and pushing for him.
If I manage to sign cespedes, what is my next move? What do I do to clear up the outfield? What will my outfield look on opening day?
Well, you'll want to listen to today's podcast for a bunch of talk on that. Actually, we tackled the Nats first.
Fact is, a Werth trade makes the most sense, BUT his value is obviously down, he's quite expensive, and most of all he has a NT clause.
It's certainly plausible enough to simply bump Taylor down to Triple-A to start the year and then more or less platoon Revere and Werth. Or, he could be dealt for a starter if they really want to get after it this year.
Which of the veteran starters that Miami's looking for has the best odds of ending there?
Maybe Lincecum? They seem to have been on him from the get-go, there doesn't appear to be much other interest, Loria has a seeming fascination with former high profile players, etc. Maybe they'd say the 5th starter job is his to lose this spring, and give him some incentives on a tiny guarantee.
What are the Padres doing. They are below a projected 120M payroll but are not active on the Cespedes front, what's the plan for a LF?
Not sure that was ever a projected payroll amount so much as their stated ceiling. Obviously, it doesn't make sense to fill it just to fill it. They have clearly made some moves with the intention of clearing/maintaining some present/future payroll, and taken advantage of their open jobs (starting SS/closer) to draw veterans on minimal guarantees. That makes a big salary addition plausible, but hardly necessary.
All that being said, what are they doing? Seems in some ways that they are going back to a more typically small market way of operating and are going to push hard on getting promising amateur talent and developing it.
Nats package Taylor and co for Lucroy after signing Cespedes.
Plausible. But I mean, they could get Lucroy if they wanted, regardless of whether Taylor is available, because they have some really appealing pitching prospects.
Anything happening with the Giants?
Steve Adams said on today's podcast that they are his dark horse to add a significant outfielder.
But as for news/rumors, not really, no.
How could the Mets let Cespedes walk to the division rival
What is Sandy waiting for?
Who gets me at the end of the day?
Will Dickerson see opening day in Denver?
I expect yes, because I'm not sure they could get enough out of him right now for it to make sense. For me, sending out CarGo makes the most sense, but there have been some hints (in the way the Parra signing went down) that it won't be him.
My money right now is on Blackmon being traded.
Will the Angels make any more moves before Spring Training?
Absolutely. Expect them to be very active trying to cash in a SP and add an infielder and an outfielder.
CJ Wilson to Marlins for...?
Marlins won't take enough cash to make that work for LAA.
Jack (g'day from Sydney)
Any input on the market for Doug Fister? Seems like a good bet for a number of teams...
He's a very appealing guy, because he's had a long history of good results and really wasn't all that bad on the whole last year. He seems to have come through the arm issues okay.
I mean, there's a decent chance he gives you 190 innings of 3.65 ERA pitching. How many guys can you say that about and sign for one or two years? There'll be plenty of competition for him.
What do you expect out of Corey Seager?
There's just no way to tell, really. We all know what the prospect hounds think of him, and what he did last year. But there isn't enough big league track record to say he's going to put up a 125 wRC+ and play an above-average SS. There's some downside in the near term to plugging him in everyday, of course, but then again -- what are you going to do? He obviously seems ready for a shot and you're better off betting on talent.
Any chance the Nats preparing to trade Harper if they get Cespedes? They'r get a ton.
Do you see a scenario where Sanchez and Hutchison start the year in AAA?
Not sure why that'd make sense. Barring a calamity this spring, Hutchison probably just needs to get a rotation spot to see how things go. If it blows up, you have Chavez and other options.
Sanchez will probably be stretched out this spring and then they can wait and see how things go. But I have to imagine he'll be on the 25-man to start the year, whether in the rotation, as a late-inning one-inning guy, or (as some have suggested) as some kind of super-long-man.
significance of nats taking away 2 of 3 offensive weapons that the mets had last season
None, in the way it's posed. I don't really buy into that way of looking at things.
IF this happens (Yo to DC) ...
The Mets rented Cespedes, pure and simple. They were always probably going to lose him -- actually, at one point, it was a certainty they would (remember that they re-negotiated that contract clause). Did they "replace" him (yet, at least)? No, certainly not. They decided to add De Aza and give Conforto a major role.
In the IF, it's a more direct proposition: add Walker in for Murphy. I thought that made eminent sense for the Mets as a redistribution of their resources.
Have you read Jeff Sullivan's (Fangraphs) idea that the Ian Desmond is a better fit for the D-backs than Kendrick? If so, thoughts?
I haven't, but now I'm going to, and will recommend it to everyone even without having read it.
Does Pearce signing with rays mean Cubs trade is imminent?
If anything, the opposite, no? The whole reported thrust of talks were Tampa Bay pitching for a young Cubs bat. I guess a guy like Desmond Jennings could go to CHC, but I'm not sure there's any direct connection.
Any chance this is just a smokescreen by ROC Nation to drive up the price on the Mets?
Eh ... reports have said there's an offer out from DC and a "push" to sign him. That goes beyond some vague interest.
If anything, I feel like some of the stuff on the Mets interest has been designed to try to ratchet up pressure on Sandy/Wilpons to get heavily involved.
Anyway for the podcast audio quality to be improved?
A lot of that is the limitations of the home studio I currently have. (I also refer to it as "my bedroom.")
But hopefully in the not-so-distant future I will have a sweet little podcast-centric setup that will allow us to really ramp it up. Thanks for hanging in there for the time being.
Will I even get the 7/$107 I turned down now?
Where do I get my inside information?
I don't purport to have inside information! (Well, usually.)
Does Howie Kendrick even have a market outside of Ariz?
LAA, CWS, OAK, ATL, STL, SDP could all make some sense to me.
At this point in the offseason, who is currently the most overrated team?
I guess I'm not sold on the Rangers just because they had the nice run last year. And certainly I am not buying into the DBacks, though I'm not sure others necessarily really are either.
Which Padres catcher is most likely to get traded? What would they fetch?
Seems like Norris, but there isn't a ton of pressing demand. I'd hate to give him up without getting a piece that can really help somewhere else.
But since we're on the topic ... how about sending him to TEX for Mitch Moreland and putting Myers back in the outfield?
I'm not done... right?
I already told y'all Steve's dark horse for outfielders ... I guess Boston is mine. Don't see why they couldn't still pull off something big.
Is Mookie Betts one of the most valuable assets in baseball?
Who would you most love to watch play baseball from a different era?
Easy: Jackie Robinson.
That's even easier because it would mean I was also watching players like Duke Snider, Willie Mays, etc, etc, etc.
Jeff... what do you think the Orioles are going to do with their openings in the outfield and starting pitcher position?
I don't really have specific predictions, but the time to stop spending is not the moment after bringing back most of your significant free agents and giving a huge, club-record contract to a slugger who might not age well. I think they need to keep pushing.
Will you answer one of my questions about markakis to the bluejays or angles?
Hadn't seen them ... let's do this one.
I don't see why anyone would give anything of value for Markakis, really. He is what he is. There's no excess value on that deal, IMO.
Compare to, say, Andrew Miller, who would get a much bigger contract on this year's open market just one year into his FA deal.
That being said, I don't see TOR adding that kind of cash to pick up a sturdy and unexciting corner OF after just shipping one out of town. And the Halos don't have space under the luxury line; if they are going to break it (or do some major finagling to shed $), it'll be for someone better, I think.
Big hypothetical late winter trade, like last year's Kimbrel trade. Go!
Votto to Red Sox?!!! (I just made that up, obviously, no suggestion at all anything like that is going to happen.)
Oh, and Billy Joel is performing at Nationals Park on July 9. They got the Piano Man, too.
If nats do indeed sign cespedes who's your favorite in the nl east???
If that happens, it will still be the Nationals. : )
Why isn't Gallardo signed and why not the White Sox as a suitor?
It isn't surprising at all to me that he's the last significant starter (guy who turned down a QO and has $10MM+ AAV/multi-year expectations) left on the market. His peripherals have been tanking rather forcefully of late despite the good results. And he's just not an exciting pitcher. We've seen guys like Lohse, Garza, Ubaldo push into January/February in recent years.
I don't think that's the area that the Sox need to be focused. If he fell in their lap and they had missed on some other opportunities, then sure. I guess you could advocate to sign him and trade Quintana for a nice position player + some other young talent, though.
Is there any trade market for Bret Gardner or Carlos Beltran?
Gardner, I'm sure, still has his suitors. But they might have already passed on that chance, by and large. Could still imagine a match with the Angels, Indians, maybe White Sox depending upon how things proceed in other areas, but I'm not sure a Gardner deal is going to drive other decisions at this point.
Assuming Jose Reyes is suspended will Adames, Story or Descalso get first shot ?
Is Desmond a possible short-term replacement ?
Spring training battle!
Hey, I love the idea of the Rockies signing Desmond, though. Just so I can go down the street and watch him hit lasers out at Coors.
Do you have any predictions on a Cashner trade or playing the full 2016 with Padres?
Nah, his value just isn't that high. I'd rather let him pitch for me and then consider a deadline trade or QO after the year depending on how it all goes.
I'm going to guess and say your team is the Redsox. Am I right?
Which NL West team are you putting money on?
LAD for me.
Panic At The DisCoors
No way Rockies break camp with all four LH OFs.... right?
No, I don't think so. Have to make a trade unless they have some serious plan to put Dickerson at first or something (which doesn't appear likely).
BTW, on that last question, SFG certainly has some killer upside, too. If their breakout infielders can repeat their '15 seasons and they get the Cueto/Shark they paid for, look out. But I like the Dodgers overall.
How do you think the Dodgers will handle Alex Guerrero? Is he true MLB ready power bat?
Trade him for a minimal return to someone that will give him a chance at some actual playing time. He had a nice start last year but faded hard -- just no evidence he's more than a reserve (or maybe second-division regular) at this point.
Do you see a way the braves exceed expectations this year?
What are your expecations? I have a hard time seeing them ending up over .500, I guess, but bear in mind that any team has a wide variety of possible outcomes surrounding their true talent level. That's both due to variations in performance (which can line up for one team) and outcomes (sequencing, scheduling, etc).
Why do teams like the dbacks think throwing $30+million at 1 pitcher will make them go from a 79 win team to a 90 win team? Just like the Padres last year, picking up all the potential offensive talent with bad defense isn't the solution. Stay small market and stop driving up free agent prices.
I don't know, but I really, really dislike the Greinke/Miller moves. I think they could have done more to improve their outlook for 2016 at a much lower outlay of resources.
They still have some work to do, I think, but it's not clear how much more they have to post up to get it done.
Where is Mat Latos pitching next season?
Think the O's & Pirates make some sense.