MLBTR Chat with Steve Adams 2-2-16
Let us chat about all of the things that one would typically discuss in a chat, for this is, indeed, a chat.
Do the mets bring back Clippard? Sign Hunter?
Doubt it. Can't see either signing a minor league deal and I don't know that the Mets have too much cause to go beyond that level at this point.
Thoughts on Nats signing Brendan Ryan after already getting drew and murphy?
Depth is a good thing. No harm in it for them. Probably not an ideal landing spot for Ryan, but he could land a bench job perhaps. Doubt he'd be used much though.
Wheres Lazarito destination going to be
Depends on when he signs. If he signs during the current period, Dodgers are the easy call. If he waits until after July 2 (when the Dodgers are restricted from signing players for more than $300K), I'd pick the Braves.
How big of a gift basket do I send Dave Stewart?
That trade was so weird. I just don't understand virtually anything the current or former iteration of the D-backs' front office does. I know Anderson didn't have a spot in that rotation, but I wouldn't even trade him straight up for Segura, let alone Segura and a reasonably well-regarded middle infield prospect. Shedding Hill's deal has some value, but not enough to balance out the fact that they've downgraded at shortstop by replacing a no-hit brilliant defender with a no-hit, no-glove defender at the position. I loved the point that was made (I believe at Fangraphs) that this, apparently, was deemed less valuable than the No. 39 pick they didn't want to give up for Kendrick. Chase Anderson has considerably more value than the No. 39 pick, and Diaz may have comparable value. It didn't make a shred of sense to me, but that's my expectation for most things D-back related at this point.
And having said all that -- I still think the D-backs will have a good team this season. I just shudder when thinking about their long-term outlook since they've already depleted the farm and I don't think the current decision-makers' valuation of current assets bodes well for them turning said assets into future value if and when the time comes.
Is there a chance that Wilson Contreras starts the year in MLB? If not, what's the earliest you think we will see him?
Nah I don't see why they would. They have a perfectly competent catcher in Miguel Montero and Contreras hasn't even played at Triple-A. 2017's more realistic.
Do you see Josh Johnson ever going back to his old form? Who do you think he'll sign with?
At this point there's no reason to expect he'll ever be able to throw 180 innings in a season again, let alone of the quality of which he was capable back in 2010ish.
Will I remain a Cub?
Nah I think you're signing elsewhere. At some point, I don't know how the White Sox continue passing when he's such an obvious upgrade for them over Avisail Garcia. And not just a slight upgrade -- like 3-4 wins better.
Whose outlook for 2016 and beyond looks brighter, Orioles or DBacks?
Diamondbacks -- Greinke will still be awesome in 2017 most likely, Corbin is better than any pitcher in Baltimore's rotation, and Miller probably is as well. Plus, Goldschmidt and Pollock in their prime years. D-backs have a window for a few years here, but I can't help questioning virtually every move made by that front office. Orioles are just older and have less talent in the Majors or Minors at present.
Do you think the Yankees are waiting out their biggest contracts to sign FAs?
I don't think they're planning on signing anyone to a Major League contract really, because they upgraded at second and in the outfield via trade. There aren't many names left out there that are a clear fit and upgrade for the Yankees.
Will I go back to the old me or will my knees finally give out?
I can see him being better than in 2015 but I wouldn't bank on V-Mart returning to 2014 form. I was amazed at the contract he got as a 36-year-old DH with knee problems and it doesn't look any better now than it sounded on paper at the time.
When will someone point out that the only people really being hurt by the qualifying offer system are the agents? It just seems a little tough for me to garner much sympathy for guys who are turning down a guaranteed 8 figure salary for 1 season.
Yes, how dare they turn down a total guarantee that is only a fraction of their market value (in a vacuum) in order to seek out their full market value and a long-term pact to afford stability and certainty for their families.
These are people with wives, kids, etc. Free agents, more often than not, want a stable, long-term landing spot because of that. The notion that they're greedy for turning down a nice one-year deal that doesn't represent their full market value -- at least a market that isn't limited by arbitrary restrictions that are entirely out of the player's control -- is bizarre to me. If your employer offered you a $70K salary for one year but you felt you could go find a job with a different company that would pay you $100K over four years, wouldn't you pursue that? Of course it's not apples to apples since we're talking millions of dollars for the players, but there's no reason to fault them for looking to get paid market value and offering some peace of mind for their families.
People who hate on agents should be amateur sports fans.
It's such a genuinely weird phenomenon to me. "These guys are ruining the sport by taking money out of the owners' pockets and putting into the pockets of the players!" Will never understand it ever.
will adding Logan Morrison,Steve Pearce and Corey Dickerson where does that leave Richie Shaffer
Triple-A most likely. Morrison, Loney and Pearce are all gone next year though so he'll have a chance soon enough. Plus, they still desperately want to trade Loney, it seems, and they could move an outfielder (Jennings) to get Dickerson into left field and free up some time that way as well. It's not ideal for him, but he's still in the plans.
Can the chat be inverted, and jotcast at fg is decent
We're looking at some new software options again -- Jotcast included.
Will I ever be back in the show?
The closer we get to the season the less I think so. If he sits out for a year is he really going to jump back into the picture entering his age-38 season? Perhaps, but he's already being picky about his potential landing spot. I don't imagine a year off, which will reduce the amount teams are willing to pay him probably, makes it any likelier that he finds that perfect fit his agent said he's seeking.
Do i see Dansby on uniform by the end of the season?
Nah I think more mid-2017 is a better expectation.
Does anybody the Reds got for Frazier or Chapman start for them early on (or even make the opening day roster)???
Peraza should start for them in the near future, yes, but I can also see him opening the season at Triple-A since they want him getting everyday ABs, and Phillips invoking his no-trade protection really messed that up for them. Schebler could make the Opening Day roster in the outfield mix.
Donald Zachary Greinke
Am I worth the money I received?
I doubt he'll provide $205MMish worth of value over the life of the deal, but free agency is an auction and the winning team has to overpay -- especially for the top-end free agents.
Is Mat Latos going to get an MLB offer?
Yeah I think he'll get a big league deal. Might only be for $5M or so with tons of incentives, but I'd be surprised if he settled for a Minor League pact -- even one with a healthy MLB base.
In your opinion is fowler worth giving up my 28th pick?
Easily. White Sox are trying to win right now, and Fowler makes them an easy three wins better over Garcia. Maybe more.
Can the Orioles compete without one more legit SP and legit OF?
I think they're more than one SP shy, unless Gausman breaks out in a big way. That rotation doesn't do much of anything for me. Unfortunately, there isn't much in the way of a difference-maker left in free agency, and they don't have a good enough farm system to trade for the type of upgrade I think they need. The biggest possible upgrade they could make might just be Fowler in right field, then hoping for a Gausman breakout, Tillman rebound and Ubaldo to turn back the clock to 2013 or something. I don't like their outlook even after re-signing O'Day, Wieters and Davis.
What do you think of the Kendrick 2 yr deal? lack of confidence on Kike, Johnson?
More just about seeing a value that was too good to pass up. Kendrick on 2/20 is a really nice deal. Hernandez can play all over now, and Johnson can get some more time at the Triple-A level, although he might not necessarily need that time. I still like the signing from a value standpoint, and they can always make a trade later in the year to clear some of the logjam if injuries haven't already done that.
Thoughts on the Fister deal?
At that price, I like the risk, but I'm not optimistic on Fister at all after he as throwing 86mph last year and dealing with forearm issues. For that price, though, why not roll the dice? If his arm doesn't bounce back, you can cut ties without it being a huge sunk cost.
If Stearns asks, will I waive my no-trade clause to the Nats or demand an extension?
I'm sure he'd ask for an extension. His contract is Sal Perez levels of team-friendly. A trade would be a good means of getting closer to his market value in 2017 and possibly beyond.
Why does the media always throw Jorge Soler's name out there every time they speculate the Cubs making a trade? This dude has HUGE potential and he needs to stay where he is. If you want to trade a Cub ,start throwing Travis Wood's name around instead .
Jorge Soler has tons of trade value. Travis Wood does not.
I read an article that suggested Yankees trade Gardner and Gary Sanchez for White Sox Quintana, with White Sox then pursuing Gallardo or other arms to fill the void. What are your thoughts?
I don't think the Sox would give up Quintana for Gardner and Sanchez.
Any Chance Aroldo Chapman becomes a starter?
I think he's in the 'pen for his career now.
So anymore Rockies outfielders going to be traded?
I doubt it, but I love the idea of them trading Blackmon for pitching and signing Austin Jackson as a stopgap to David Dahl.
If I sign a one-year pillow contract, where should I go?
U.S. Cellular Field (White Sox) is about as good a park as any for a hitter to try to rebuild some value and get some confidence back. I don't think it should have to come to that for Desmond, myself, but the market seems to be pushing him that way.
Latos or Lee a good sign for Atlanta? Small contracts with heavy incentives.
I'd be stunned if either one of those happened at this point. I wouldn't get your hopes up.
Loney for non-top15 prospect?
Loney for salary relief would be fine from the Rays' standpoint probably. Take $4-6MM of his contract and send a warm body back and you probably have a deal.
Kolten Wong batting leadoff so Matt Carpenter can hit 3/4. No?
Wong's not exactly an OBP machine for the top of the lineup, but he's OK in that department. And, I don't mind moving Carpenter down a spot or two, so sure.
Davis in right, Trumbo at first, Alvarez a nice platoon DH.
If you feel that Davis can play an average-ish right field for a season, that's fine, although you're forfeiting some defense at first base, where Davis is really good.
Have all rumors for a Javier Baez trade died? Are the rays out on a potential deal after their recent trade?
I've seen some say that it's tougher to see the Rays moving pitching now, but they didn't really deal from their rotation depth, so I don't see why that should be the case. I think a Baez/Rays fit is as plausible as it was before the Dickerson swap.
Think Jaso will be fine defensively at 1b? I mean he cant be worse than pedro, right?
It'd be tough to be a downgrade over Alvarez, and he's an affordable guy to stuff in a strict platoon. I like the move well enough, though I can't imagine it was Pittsburgh's preferred option. A Mitch Moreland or Adam Lind trade made more sense, but they may have just balked at the asking price.
Best young rookie pitcher to make an impact in 2016? Giolito leading the way?
Depends how quickly he gets to the Majors. If he spends a good portion of the season there, then sure. Jose Berrios is another. Glasnow, Stephenson, Gray as well. Blake Snell, depending on whether the Rays trade an arm before the year starts.
Sean Manaea: #1, #2, or #3 starter?
I'll take C.
Will I accrue service time this year despite being injured?
If they put you on the MLB 60-day DL to open a 40-man roster spot, yeah.
Is Jay Bruce still on the block? Where do you see a fit with him?
Still on the block, but his terrible finish didn't help his value much. He makes sense for the White Sox, Orioles, Indians, Rangers (sort of)
With Greg Bird out the entire year, what are the chances that the Phillies can convince the Yankees to take Ryan Howard. The Phillies will be happy to eat 85%-90% of the contract. if so, what type of return can I expect?
Bird wasn't projected to be on the 25-man roster, so his injury doesn't give the Yankees any reason to go out and add a replacement of that type. Maybe they'll sign Chris Parmelee or something to give them another first base option at Triple-A that can serve as depth in the event of a Tex injury, but adding Howard doesn't make sense here.
Where would Philips accept a trade?
If he wouldn't accept one to reunite with Dusty Baker, it's tough to find a fit. It'd have to be a team willing to give him an extension, apparently, and I can't see anyone doing that.
Giants still in the market for another OFer?
I think they should be, but there's no indication that's the case. I like them for Jackson and Fowler though.
Gallardo to Baltimore? No more than 3 years, right?
I don't even think he's a big upgrade over what they have, and I believe Duquette when he says he doesn't want to give up the pick. I don't know where Gallardo is going to go, but I'm surprised by his lack of a market. I thought he'd get something like 3/39 or 3/42 without too much difficulty. Clearly, that isn't the case.
Steve, you forgot another impact rookie arm. Steven Matz is still Rookie eligible.
Sure, there's another one.
Do i start the year in center field for the Twins
That's their hope but I can them sending Danny Santana out there to start the year if Buxton really struggles in spring. Ryan Sweeney probably has at least a chance to make the club as well, should he perform well and Buxton struggle.
Billy Hamilton for Hector Santiago and Cam Bedrosian, who hangs up first?
Santiago doesn't make sense as a centerpiece for the Reds since he only has two years of control remaining, and at this point, Hamilton hasn't done anything to show he can hit in the Majors. I don't like that trade all that much for either team, honestly.
I go cheap enough you think ARZ gets involved?
They wouldn't punt the pick for Kendrick and saw fit to trade Chase Anderson for, well, not much. Gallardo might be better than Anderson, but not by a ton, honestly. I don't think they'd do it.
Will Heyward earn that big contract roaming CF between Soler and Schwarber?
Even if his defense isn't as good in center, his offensive contributions relative to other center fielders around the league will be greater than they would've been relative to other right fielders, so yeah, he should be fine.