MLBTR Chat with Steve Adams 12-29-15
Apologies for the slightly late start. I blame Eric Young, Jr. for making me write a brief note on his minor league deal. Inconsiderate, is what it is. Let's get underway with what I assume will be the final chat of 2015. (Though maybe Jeff has a New Years Eve chat in him!)
Is there any chance the Mets sign Yoenis Cespedes?
There's never really been much of a chance of that -- not back in August, nor in November, nor now. They're just not going to spend that type of money on a free agent, I don't think, and they don't have a great spot for him anyway. He's not a very good center fielder. He's a damn good left fielder though.
Think Reddick gets traded? This offseason or closer to the deadline?
Not this offseason, no. Maybe in July if things go south in Oakland, but I do believe that Beane and Forst want to extend him. Doesn't mean he'll bite; Reddick is young and looking at a very weak free-agent class next winter, so he may want to test the market. Back to the actual question: Deadline for me, if he's traded at all.
Do you think the White Sox would be better off with Cespedes or Gordon? Do you think they will be able to land one of them?
I like Gordon as a better fit there, personally, because I'm more sold on his consistency than Cespedes' big 2015. Not that Yo was bad before that, but he has some OBP concerns, and if his bat slows down in his mid-30s, that's an ugly looking contract for a guy that doesn't walk and by that point is probably more above-average than great in left field. Plus, a lefty bat seems like a little better fit there, and he'll be cheaper.
What was the point of getting cespedes (mets) if ur not going to resign him?
Trying to win the 2015 World Series? Teams rent players every year.
O's fan in MT
Jay Bruce a fit for Baltimore? Left handed corner outfielder
Yeah there's a match there. You could make the case for one of Colorado's outfielders or Alex Gordon, too, and I'd like that better just because I think they're all better players than what Bruce is at this point.
Will the Cardinals trade for an outfielder or sign a free agent or do they stick with Holliday, Grichuk and Piscotty?
It seems like Heyward was a special case for them, and they're more or less content with the alignment you mentioned in the outfield. If they add an outfielder, I'm not expecting it to be anything more than a backup at this point.
How come no one knows about Ketel Matte yet? #StudOnTheRise
I think plenty of people who follow the game with any reasonable level of closeness know Ketel Marte. "Stud" might be taking it a bit far as there's not much power there, but I like him well enough as a guy who can provide average-ish offense and play a passable shortstop (even though he might be better suited to play second base). He's a nice regular player, but I don't foresee him hitting superstardom.
What are the chances Alex Gordon stays in KC?
If they're really sticking to offering him barely north of Nick Markakis money, zero.
What would the Twins have to give up to land Andrew Miller?
A significant amount -- more than Terry Ryan has shown a willingness to part with and more than they reasonably should part with, honestly. Yankees would want a controllable starting pitcher, so I don't see anything getting done without including Berrios, May, Duffey or Gibson as a starting point and then adding some further pieces around that pitcher.
due to his advanced age is Bartolo Colon a good signing for the mets?
He hasn't shown many signs of falling apart just yet, and at $7MM it's not like they have him a huge, detrimental sum anyway. I thought the deal was fine, though admittedly a little expensive for a guy who isn't even going to spend the year in the rotation.
Do you think the Blue Jays are the best fit for Chris Davis
Orioles, Padres or Cardinals are a better fit, in my estimation. Pirates would've been the best fit I could think of, but they obviously were never going to spend like that. I don't see first base as a huge need in Toronto. I'd be more focused on the bullpen right now.
Imagine this 3 team deal:
Tampa gets: Javier Baez(from CHC), Chase Dejong(from LAD) and Trayce Thompson(from LAD)
Dodgers get: Jake Odorizzi(from TB), Eric Joksich(from CHC)
Cubs get: Jake Mcgee(from TB), Brandon Guyer(from TB) and Zack Lee(from LAD)
Deal or no deal?
You have the Rays getting Baez, DeJong and Thompson for Odorizzi, McGee AND Guyer (who, while not a star, is a fine complementary outfield piece). Not enough for me, and it's not close.
Should I buy a starter or trade for one? Or maybe stick with what I have.
I think the Yankees should be in on someone like Kazmir, personally, but I don't expect them to do anything more than add a veteran on a minor league deal. Roll the dice on Chad Billingsley or something, perhaps.
FA market at 3B seems quiet. Is Freese the best available option, and where do you think he might land?
Yeah, he is. I can still see him back with the Halos, with Yunel sliding over to second base. Padres make some sense as a team with a need at 3B. Otherwise, there aren't a ton of contending clubs with big needs at third base. If he ends up getting to the point where he'd take a one-year deal, I'd say Houston and Cleveland make some sense, too. Maybe Pittsburgh, since they could put Kang back at SS over Mercer, who I just don't like all that much as a starter.
Why hasn't some AL team snatched up Pedro Alvarez?
He's a pure DH that can't hit lefties and doesn't even post great OBP marks against right-handed pitching. He's just not that exciting a player outside the homers
How far can Lewis go for the Rangers!
He threw 200 innings in 2015 -- seems like they'll keep bringing him back on one-year deals until he's not able to continue. As far as a reasonably successful innings eater goes, Texas could do a lot worse, especially at his price.
Steve, its my birthday! Any chance my diamondbacks give me one final present and sign/trade for one more starter to complete their rotation?
You already got Greinke and Shelby Miller -- stop being greedy! I don't think they're adding another starter. At this point, Greinke-Corbin-Miller-Ray and a fourth option, maybe Chase Anderson, is a solid rotation. They'll probably give Rubby De La Rosa another look in the rotation, which is fine, but I'd really like to see him dropped to a high-leverage relief spot where he can unleash all of his velocity and not have to worry as much about the fact that he doesn't have a good enough third pitch to retire lefties as a starter.
Who gives Dom Brown a shot in a platoon situation?
Don't see the harm in it for the Reds. They don't have a ton of guys they'd be blocking, though they apparently like Scott Schebler for that role. Can't blame a team for not falling over to grab Brown... he's had plenty of chances and looked entirely lost for some 90% of his Major League tenure.
Did the Reds get enough for Chapman?
Not even close, but the domestic violence allegations submarined his value. But, if that's really all you're going to get, I'd just as soon hold onto him to see if offers in July are better, and it not, take the comp pick, honestly.
I really can't understand why they didn't trade him -- and Frazier, for that matter -- in July. Sure there's some hindsight in the mix now, but it was obvious back then that they were going to end up trading both eventually anyway, and we discussed and even advocated for as much on the MLBTR Podcast in early June.
They didn't get nearly enough for either player, and the returns in July would've been enormous. I don't get it.
Any suitors for Nova? If so what could he bring in terms of talent?
I'm sure there are clubs that wouldn't mind him at $4-5MM for one year, but they're not going to give up anything of real note to get him.
Do you think the Giants wish they had picked up Aoki's 4.5 million option at this tiime?
I think the plan there all along was to pursue a fairly large-scale upgrade, and I think they're going to come away with one of the top-tier outfielders still. If not one of Upton, Cespedes or Gordon then someone like Fowler.
I did think they could've picked up the option and traded him though. Considering the fact that Seattle paid him the same as what he'd have made in San Francisco, it's easy to see them throwing some kind of quasi-useful minor leaguer their way in a trade.
Jeff in Akron
Answer an Indians question please
Truthfully: There haven't been many good ones asked -- or many at all.
Are the Rockies' outfielders overrated?
I tend to think so. Gaudy numbers, to be sure, but their park-adjusted offensive numbers aren't as impressive, and Blackmon/Dickerson have huge home/road splits and platoon splits. Not saying they aren't useful, but I don't think they'd look as enticing had they come up with another org.
What type of players can you see Cargo bringing back? Carrasco maybe?
I'm not giving up five cheap years of Carrasco for two expensive years of CarGo.
Steven St Croix
Lets say Baltimore signs one of the outfielders for $150 mil and that takes him out of the Chris David market, if he were to sign a 1 year deal, what would it look like?
Chris Davis isn't signing a one-year deal.
What do the Nats do in CF after missing out on Heyward?
Will Venable to platoon with Michael A. Taylor? I'm sure Rizzo likes Parra -- Arizona connection -- but there seem to be genuine concerns about the notion of him playing center field. Honestly, I'd add a corner bat like Upton and just play Bryce in center for a couple of years until Werth is off the books.
Who will be the next team to completeley rebuild and fire sale the team
Rockies? I think they should already be shopping their bats more aggressively. I can see the Orioles getting to that point eventually.
Does Brandon Phillips have a full NTC?
He has 10-and-5 rights, which is 10 years of MLB service time with the five most recent coming on one team. Once a player reaches that point, the team has to get his approval on any trade.
Any chance the Rangers get cespedes?
Sure there's a chance, but it doesn't seem like something that's going to be high on their list of things to do. More like something they'll do if his price falls to a certain point where they feel it's too good an opportunity to pass up.
Which team is the best fit for Kenta Maeda?
Dodgers make the most sense -- boring answer, I know, but they have a huge need and the money won't be a huge deterrent for them.
Why no Cliff Lee rumors?
His agent isn't feeling overly chatty with the media? He'll probably need to do some kind of open workout or at least throw privately for a number of clubs before his market picks up, and I'd imagine a lot of clubs are looking at him as a fourth or fifth option in the event that Plans A through D don't work out.
Would a Omar Infante for Matt Garza trade make sense for Royals?
Yeah I think we've tossed that out in one of these chats and on the podcast before. They'd do well to free up second base for a more viable alternative, and they could use some additional rotation options.
Twins gave my number to Byung Ho Park so I guess I'm a goner...any interest?
Probably a minor league deal somewhere, sure. Duensing is serviceable against lefties and terrible against righties. Someone will give him a look, and I can see him making a club in Spring Training.
Do you see Andrew Miller getting shipped out of town now that Chapman is in NY?
Nah, I just see a really intimidating bullpen for a year in New York (or, most of a year, depending on a Chapman suspension)
Hypothetically, who would you want, 2 years of me at a higher price or 2 years of Cargo with his current contract?
Cespedes at two more expensive years, probably, but there's no way he's taking a two-year deal if you're insinuating that.
BIG MIKE RIZZO
Nationals sign Chen 5yr $90M and trade Gio, Paps, and Storen for Blackmon
I don't think Nats are going to pay top dollar for a starting pitcher -- more looking to be opportunistic. And Gio/Papelbon/Storen probably doesn't get Blackmon. Papelbon has negative value, Storen is a free agent after one season, and Gio would be gone after 2018. Rox would want more controllable assets for Blackmon.
I do think Chen ultimately costs around 5/90 though.
Haven't heard much of the market for Guillermo Heredia. Seems like a solid CF
More like a fourth outfielder from a couple of scouts/team employees I've spoken to. That's not to say he isn't useful and can't get paid, but I don't think he's going to land some big Rusney Castillo/Yasmany Tomas style contract or anything.
Does Miami hold on to Ozuna?
I still think they end up trading him at some point this winter.
Are the Mariners a contender now, or what else would they need to do?
I think they have a chance in the AL West, yeah, but it's a pretty deep division. I'd look harder at adding to the bullpen. I still think trading Carson Smith was weird, even though I've generally been behind a large portion of Dipoto's moves this winter.
Could Grichuk be the real deal...He looked good before injury.
Define "Real deal." He can probably play a passable CF and hit for power, but he also got extremely lucky on balls in play (.365 BABIP) and K'ed in nearly a third of his plate appearances. Without correcting the K's, he could end up hitting .220ish once his BABIP inevitably regresses.
Don't the Cubs have to get a CF? What's the point of signing a guy who made bones on D then switching his position?
The threshold for passable offense in center field is considerably lower than it is in right field. Heyward's bat is considerably better than the league-average CF, and if he can play above-average or even competent defense there for a few seasons, he'll still be plenty valuable.
Is J Upton damaged goods at this point? Bad club house guy? Why is he still out there?
There are tons of notable free agents still on the market... don't see why we need to single out Upton like he's some kind of pariah just because he's yet to sign.
Gardner and Refsnyder for Heaney or Skaggs, who hangs up first?
Doubt the Angels are big on moving young pitching for a 32-year-old coming off an injury and a second base prospect that can't play second base all that well.
Jose Fernandez for Trevor May, Max Kepler, Tyler Duffey, Kennys Vargas, Kyle Gibson...who says no?
The Marlins reportedly asked for Corey Seager, Julio Urias and Joc Pederson plus two others -- that package isn't getting close for the Twins. Miami would probably ask for both Buxton and Sano.
Reddick to the Angels makes a ton of sense. What's holding back a deal like that?
The Angels have a terrible farm system and the A's don't want to trade Reddick anyway.
Kazmir to Yanks, what's it going to take, price-wise?
Something like $52-56MM over a four-year term.
Among the remaining free agents, who do you see as the most underrated?
I'm a big fan of a healthy Denard Span, but to this point we don't know what to make of his hip. Ryan Raburn can help a team in a platoon role -- Mets make a lot of sense -- and I'd like to see Steve Pearce get 600ish PA in a season and see what happens. On the pitching side of things, Shawn Kelley would've been my answer, but I don't know off the top of my head now that he's signed.
What's your outlook for Raisel Iglesias?
Love the guy -- plenty of grounders, tons of strikeouts, reasonable control... he checks all the boxes you want to see out of a guy in his first impression. I'm a little skeptical of the control since that was a knock on him at one point, but I think he's a real nice looking mid-rotation piece for them moving forward.