MLBTR Chat with Steve Adams 12-22-15
Hope everyone's enjoying the holiday season thus far! Let's get things underway for today.
thoughts on de aza signing by the mets?
It's fine -- he got less than I thought he'd command, honestly, so the price on him is nice. I think Span was a better fit for them, though, and the same goes for Venable. Playing De Aza in CF with any sort of regularity seems like a poor choice at this point, but he's a solid bat against RHP at least. And if he bombs, he's cheap enough that there shouldn't be any real reluctance to just DFA him.
What LRP do the twins get. And what's the cost
I think they'll go the trade route and maybe add a couple others on minor league deals. The Abad pickup wasn't a bad signing (I didn't even realize the awful pun there while typing it, but I have to leave it now, ha). Some candidates I like for them: Tony Cingrani, Will Smith, Mike Dunn.
Do u get payd for working for mlbtr
This is my full-time job, yes.
Did the Cardinals overpay for Leake?
Not really -- that's just what a mid-rotation arm gets in today's game. If he were 30 or 31, like most free agents, he'd probably have gotten one of those 4/52-ish deals. But, the Cardinals are buying more of his prime than most free agents due to the fact that he's 28, so the price had to be a bit higher. We predicted 5/80 on our Top 50 and in our Free Agent Profile for Leake. Not saying that to pat myself on the back or anything -- we've certainly missed on some, too -- just to say that this wasn't really an unexpected price tag.
Thoughts on the Alex Gordon to the Wsox chatter?
Makes plenty of sense. Avi Garcia just isn't very good, and Melky's a defensive liability with a decent bat. He'd be a significant upgrade for a team that I think will be quite a bit better in 2016 than it was in 2015 with or without Gordon.
Cashner, Norris & BJ Upton for Gallo and Profar
No way Jon Daniels bites on that.
When the Pirates young pitchers come up this year, does Jeff Locke move to the bullpen or become a trade chip?
There's no great way to predict what'll happen. Locke or another pitcher could be on the disabled list, for instance. If everyone's healthy, Locke or Vogelsong to the bullpen makes the most sense knowing what we know now -- it'd be wise to keep either around in the event of an injury down the line. Of course, I think Pittsburgh should and very likely will still add another arm, shifting Vogelsong to a swingman role.
Do you see the Braves trading Nick Markakis at some point this season?
I don't see why they'd be closed off to it, but his value isn't exactly sky-high now coming off a three-homer season and having just turned 32. The upped BB% makes him a bit more palatable, but the batting average probably regresses a bit in 2016 as well, taking the OBP down with it.
Did you see Stars Wars The Force Awakens yet?
Hoping to do so this weekend.
CRAZY STAT! Last 2 seasons Heyward averaged a HR every 46.7 AB while Leake averaged a HR every 34.3AB.
Is that some attempt to downplay Heyward's value? You could do a lot of weird, arbitrary things like that with pitchers' home run stats. Madison Bumgarner probably homers more per AB than some 20-25 homer bats. Doesn't mean much.
De Aza? Really?? Nothing better the Mets could do??
Yeah I don't love the fit for them, necessarily, but the price was fine.
What is a realistic return for Ivan Nova?
I don't think he has much trade value -- he'd probably get close to what he's going to make in arb as a free agent since he's coming off a pretty weak effort in his return from Tommy John. I'd consider a not-terrible relief prospect a decent return, but it seems like the Yankees are trying to market him as if he's fully healthy in trades. He may be, but a club isn't going to pay full price for 180 quality innings there, since who knows if he can actually do it?
Your pick for AL East in 16?
Not picking any division winners right now. There's half the offseason left and a boatload of quality free agents still on the board.
Ricky Nolasco for Matt Kemp. Who says no, or what other factors would have to be in play?
Kemp's contract is much, much worse. Twins don't take him on just to dump Nolasco. It's not like they need corner outfielders -- they have too many corner players as it is.
Kelly Johnson back to the braves a possibility
Yeah I think he makes some sense there or in D.C., to name a couple of fits.
Giving Cischek the closer job going into spring training seems a bit risky. Any shot the M's try to sign Seung-hwan Oh to compete>
I can see them having some interest, but scouts I've talked to think Oh is more of a seventh-inning guy than an elite high-leverage arm. Mostly fastball with a decent slider that's something less than a wipeout offering.
Are you surprised Ron Gardenhire hasn't had any managing offers? What do you see in his future?
Not really. Gardenhire's a great motivator and communicator, and his players love him. But, I also think he's a pretty poor in-game tactician who is behind the times when it comes to bullpen usage and defensive shifting.
Would a package of Seager, Puig, Montas and lesser prospects net Fernandez?
I'd imagine yes, but the Dodgers wouldn't part with Seager in any trade at this point.
Zobrist > Castro right?
Yeah -- I'm not a huge Starlin guy. He's been legitimately terrible for two of the past three seasons, barring his largely BABIP-fueled surge in September.
Do the Rays move any of their starters this off season?
There's no real need for them to do so like there was when Price was getting really expensive via arbitration. With so many clubs looking for starting pitching, though, I think there's a real chance that one of their guys gets moved. People always want some kind of percentage on these things, but that's always going to be a pure guess. I lean toward someone getting moved just due to the demand, so I suppose I have to say the percentage would be slightly higher than 50%.
Best fit for Latos?
Pittsburgh or Kansas City, of the teams listed. Rays would be good, too, but he'd be in the AL East there. KC gives him a huge park and a strong defense, while Pittsburgh has the greater track record with revitalizing pitchers, is in the NL and has a pitcher-friendly park as well. Bucs need another rotation arm more than the Royals, in my view.
tyler clippard to twins?
Twins are more focused on lefties and don't seem inclined to go three years on any relievers. If they could Clippard at something like 2/12, maybe they see it as being opportunistic and thus jump in, but I'd guess he goes elsewhere (and gets more money than that).
Why on God's green earth haven't the Astros signed a starting pitcher yet?
It's not like there's suddenly a shortage of arms on the free-agent or trade market. There are a lot of clubs that have needs to fill yet. Much of their offseason has probably been focused on getting a closer, Plus, Keuchel-McHugh-McCullers-Fiers-Feldman isn't a bad 1 through 5.
Cespedes contract over/under 125 for 5 years ?
I'll take the over on both.
Do I really get a $100 million contract?
I think more like 5/90.
Mets need a bullpen arm so how about
Boxberger for Nimmo, Plawecki, Dominic Smith, Ikeel Morris, Ivan Wilson
Too much for New York to give up there.
if the winter meetings were moved to the last week in January wouldn't it be more fun.
Would probably just delay the bulk of the offseason action. Their current slot is fine.
Met fan Scott
Does the acquisitions of Walker and Cabrera mean the Mets might shop Flores?
Think it just means Flores will be in a utility role, bouncing around between 2B, 3B and SS. He's a nice fill-in at any of the three positions, especially considering Walker and David Wright have some injury issues.
Staring contest.... go....
You can't tell but I haven't blinked since the chat started. I'm winning.
I'm better at this than you ;)
Jeff is better than me at most things.
Who will we sign for left fielder?
Evans mentioned trades frequently on MLB Network Radio yesterday when talking about left field. I'm sure part of that is not wanting to put out there that they can still spend top dollar on the Cespedes, Upton, Gordon types, but they're probably exploring the trade market in earnest as well. If I'm picking a free agent, I go with Upton there -- but I think there's a very real chance they trade for a LF instead.
Fister to the Tigers as a reliever/spot starter?
He's going to want a rotation spot somewhere.
Any elite Cuban players in the mold of Abreau coming to the market in the next year or two?
There's no telling when Cuba's top players are going to leave the country, so there's no real way of knowing when the better players will be coming stateside. You're better off looking to NPB and KBO for more predictable free agent timelines.
Best guess on Pedro Alvarez and Chris Carter destinations?
Solely guessing here: Carter to Brewers and Alvarez to Orioles (assuming Davis signs elsewhere).
Follow up: Cespedes contract over / under $135 for 6 years?
I like something around $140-150MM over six years for him. Not saying I'd pay it, just that I think he can get it.
Does C.J. Wilson hold any value on the trade market? If the Angels ate 10 mil of remaining 20 mil, could they get a decent RP back?
Yeah I think if they were willing to eat half the money that's a reasonable expectation. Wilson's a solid pitcher when he's healthy, even if he's getting up there in years and is overpaid in 2016. A team with plenty of money could easily consider him an upgrade over its fifth starter -- Dodgers, Nats, etc.
Are the Reds tanking?
They're doing what rebuilding clubs have done for years -- stripping down the roster, trading for prospects, etc. It's become some huge issue of late for some weird reason, but I don't think it's anything all that new.
No pic again
Whoops -- you've all been deprived of (or spared from) my mug.
Do I get the first 400,000,000 contract??
That'd be my bet, yeah.
Shields for Crawford and so-so prospects.
Padres are shopping Shields but still want quality young players in return, which seems pretty far-fetched if it's earnest in nature. I don't mind the Shields/Crawford or a Shields/Ethier framework, but doesn't sound like Pads will go for it without a change in their approach.
Gut feeling- does JFernandez get traded this off-season. If yes to whom?
Kind of a follow-up, CJ Wilson to the Orioles a possibility? Could use a lefty starter
Orioles would make sense for him as well, sure. Especially if LAA were eating money, as was proposed in the previous CJ question.
Did the Reds get too little back for Todd Frazier?
Seems that way, yeah. I'm pretty surprised that they basically took Peraza and a couple guys who project as part-timers, but they probably like Schebler more than most, and they reportedly love Peraza and are still sold on him as a definite regular. If he pans out and Hamilton finally figures out how to get on base, that'd be a fun pair to put at the top of a lineup.
SAY CESPEDES TO THE MARINERS! (and mean it)
I can say it but I won't mean it. I don't see Dipoto spending that kind of coin on a free agent.
Panda for Shields, straight up?
Have never understood that for the Padres. Shields was overpaid but useful in 2015. Sandoval was genuinely terrible. And he's owed more money over more years. It makes no sense for San Diego.
Does Chris Davis get more the the $150mm he turned down?
Yeah I think he'll do better than most are expecting. Tends to happen with Boras' top guys each year.
Dipoto hasn't dealt for anyone the last few days. Is he ok?
Holiday season maybe? Someone may want to check on him just to be sure though.
Manny Machado 2016 AL MVP. Your thoughts?
Don't see any reason why he couldn't get there. Kid's amazing.
Jays have a realistic chance for a big signing or trade. If so, what...I'm dying of boredom here...
They've already brought back Estrada, traded for Chavez and signed Happ. They'll probably add a bullpen arm in January or February -- one of the guys on whom the market collapses -- but I wouldn't be holding my breath for anything major.