MLBTR Chat with Steve Adams 12-17-15
Hola. Sorry for the lack of chats of late -- Winter Meetings plus schedule conflicts have made it difficult, but I'm filling in Jeff's slot today while he's on vacation. Let's begin!
Fernando Abad isn't the only lefty reliever we're adding... right?
Nah -- I doubt Minnesota spends at the top of the market for someone like Bastardo, but I can see them bringing back Cotts and going the trade route. Will Smith is probably too expensive but I like Tony Cingrani as a possible buy-low for their bullpen. They'll probably dole out some more minor league deals as well.
Rick hahn said hes still looking to improve, do you think thats true or not?
What GM isn't looking to improve his team? Question is really whether he'll spend heavily to do so. I lean no on that, but wouldn't be surprised if they brought in a one-year guy to play shortstop. Could even bring back Alexei on a one-year deal. It'd be nice to see them move LaRoche, cycle Melky/Avi at DH and bring in a corner OF with a competent bat and glove, since Melky lacks the latter and Garcia lacks both.
If the iwakuma deal fall apart, could the Mariners swoop and and sign him
Sure -- if they're more comfortable on a one-year deal with him or something, I don't see why not. They clearly like the player, but the fact that they weren't willing to go three years and now there's something with his physical probably indicates that the Mariners were aware something was amiss and thus not comfortable matching L.A.'s offer.
Are the Jays going to sign anyone for the pen to a major league deal?
There are tons of relief arms left, and January always brings some bargain one-year deals for relievers. The Jays aren't going to pay top-of-market prices, clearly, but I bet they'll be opportunistic in early 2016.
Do you think the Cards sign a Starting pitcher and/or an OF bat? Thanks.
Starting pitcher is far more likely to me than an outfield bat. Heyward seems like more of a special case than someone they were pursuing to fill a clear-cut need. Holliday-Grichuk-Piscotty is a nice enough outfield, though they may want to add a fourth-OF type on a minor league deal in case Grichuk has any setbacks. But the rotation is a far clearer need to me, and there are plenty of solid, durable arms out there. That's more what they need than any kind of lockdown ace, their pursuit of Price notwithstanding.
Any update on Kendrick? Is a return to dodgers more likely now that perazza is gone?
Fairly quiet on him of late, it seems. The Dodgers got a near-MLB-ready second baseman back in that deal in Micah Johnson, so it's not like they vacated a spot on the depth chart. Plus, they still have Utley on the roster. I don't see it as all that likely, nor do I think they'd be wise to give him four (or probably even three) years anyhow.
Kendrick has been one of the more underrated players in the league for awhile, but he's showing some red flags and is already 32.
Chen looking for 5/$100M.... Do you think he gets it? My guess is no...
$100MM seems steep -- but I try not to bet against Boras in general when he's seeking those types of contracts. People can hate him all they want (which I also don't understand, personally, but to each their own), but the guy gets his top-tier clients paid more often than not.
If you set the over/under at 95, I'd probably take the under and not feel great about it. Chen doesn't feel like a $100MM pitcher, but if they can get someone to tack on a sixth year, it's achievable.
David Price, good or bad deal?
Good if you're David Price.
The top free-agent deals are always going to end up looking bad -- the "winning" team beats out every other club in baseball, auction style, more or less. That's always going to mean they paid more than the player is really worth. Price will be great for 2-3 years, and honestly, if he opts out at that point, the Red Sox come out of it looking pretty good. Granted, if he declines and stays in Boston, it's going to look regrettable barring some deep postseason runs in the next few years. Such is the nature of opt-outs.
Cj Wilson for Andre ethier. Who says no?
I think that's a reasonable-ish swap, though I could see money getting in the way. For example, Angels asking Dodgers to kick in money because Ethier is owed more, Dodgers balking because Wilson is coming off elbow surgery.
But the framework is logical enough that I can get behind it.
What are your thoughts on Hyun-Soo Kim signing with the O's
They didn't really risk anything, so I like it. $3-4MM per season is a negligible amount in this economic environment for the game. If he's a total bust, it will barely have any impact at all on Baltimore, and if he's even a competent fourth OF/bench bat, he'll probably justify the deal. It looks good to me, and that exact thinking is the reason I found it so bizarre that no team even threw $1MM or so at Jae-gyun Hwang or Ah-seop Son. In an era where that kind of money is thrown around like chump change at 16-year-old kids, why not gamble on someone closer to their prime. Even if they don't adjust and you DFA the guy in June, it's not like there was a huge loss.
What prospects would get me a LHRP like Will Smith or Jake McGee
The kinds you really don't want to part with -- especially in Smith's case because he has so much club control remaining. Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler... I can see Milwaukee asking Berrios in return, honestly, after Giles fetched Appel and Velasquez.
It's not going to be something like Oswaldo Arcia and Taylor Rogers for one of those guys. It'll hurt, and I'd be surprised if the Twins paid at the necessary level for either, honestly. That's why I listed Tony Cingrani as a buy-low option for them earlier; plenty of upside and control but his stock isn't at its peak right now, whereas Smith's certainly is.
Dickerson for Odorizzi makes too much sense, doesn't it?
For the Rockies, yeah. But Dickerson's struggled with injuries already, has significant platoon splits and hasn't hit much away from Coors. I wouldn't give Odorizzi for him, personally, but I'm a pretty big Odorizzi fan myself.
Plus, it's not like the Rays desperately need outfield help.
Kevin kiermaier seems to be a perfect fit for the cubs. Any chance they pull that off? Soler, almora, amongst others
Every club in baseball probably has interest in Kiermaier, but I don't see why the Rays would move him, especially for other outfield pieces (and more expensive ones, at that, in Soler's case).
I think the Cubs are playing Heyward in center unless they can get a starter they really like for Soler.
Does Jay Bruce get traded?
I expect the Reds to trade Bruce and Phillips this winter, yeah. Maybe Chapman depending on how quickly his situation is cleared up, but that doesn't seem like something that's going to happen quickly. During the season, I can see them listening on Mesoraco and Cozart if either is healthy and productive -- plus any one-year vets they bring on board.
With SP value apparently skyrocketing, what should I be aiming for from Dodgers and/or Rockies?
I think the rising cost of starting pitching has been a bit overstated. The relief market has been far, far crazier this offseason. Aside from Greinke, I don't know that anyone has really signed a shocking contract. But controllable, cheap starting is always in demand, and there's no reason that the Rays shouldn't ask for MLB-ready hitters in exchange. Specifically, they could use help at shortstop, catcher and first base, so that's where I'd be looking.
Your thoughts on the Shelby Miller trade?
"Astounded" seems like an accurate way to put it. I can't believe the D-backs gave up that much for Shelby Miller. Hell, five years of Inciarte alone might end up yielding more value than three of Miller. Arizona is better in the short-term, and that was their goal, but man, that looks like a heist for Atlanta in the long haul. Kudos to Hart and Coppolella.
Tulo, Pompay and Hutch for King Felix & prospects/parts...who hangs up first?
Mariners probably don't make that deal for Felix alone, let alone for Felix and other pieces.
There is no talent next year in free agency it makes no since for the Angels not to get a top tier outfielder am I right
If free agency were the only means of acquiring talent, maybe, but they could just as easily trade for an outfielder and end up in better financial shape than they would've had they paid top dollar for Upton, Gordon, etc.
What FA best fits the Padres?
If they can afford it... Desmond or Chris Davis makes tons of sense there. It seems odd to me that they're just committing to Myers at first base. I get that he was (predictably) a mess in center field, but may as well let him try left field, in my eyes. Maybe they feel like they need to emphasize defense at the other two spots since Kemp is so terrible in right field. But that was pretty foreseeable, too, so it'd be a pretty sudden change in philosophy to implement that type of prioritization.
Will the Pirates ever get a 1st baseman?
It's Dec. 17 -- it's not like we're sitting here in March with the issue unaddressed. Virtually every team still has needs to fill. Pittsburgh's gotten a few other moves done, and I'm sure first base is at or near the top of their remaining to-do list, but there's no real reason to be frustrated by the lack of a move when the majority of the offseason still remains.
Joc for archer.?
Archer is worth so, so much more than Joc on his own. They'd need to add three or four more pieces around him -- and good ones. Archer, for my money, is one of the 10-15 most valuable trade assets in baseball.
Justin Upton to the Phillies, he's young enough to be a part of the Phillies contending again.
Sure, but the Phillies also have to sell him on going to a team that's probably going to finish in last place next season and might not contend in 2017, either. Doing so means hugely overpaying, most likely, at which point if the contract goes south, it's a colossal detriment to their rebuild.
It doesn't make much sense for team or player. I get the age-related thinking, but there are other factors to consider. Plus, who's to say he's not looking for an opt-out or something of his own due to his age? If that's the case, then going to a non-contender really doesn't make sense.
Has any GM given out more mutual options than Dayton Moore? It seems that most every deal he signs has a mutual option on it (Soria, Morales, Medlen, Volquez, etc...)
The Royals have really used mutual options to their advantage -- essentially using them as a means to backload contracts since those options never get exercised by both parties. (Well, almost never. Thanks Aramis Ramirez and Matt Belisle.)
For a team with a tight-ish payroll, I think it's been an effective tactic for them. And, there's always the chance that one of them actually gets picked up by both sides, which usually makes it a win-win for team and player.
Matt Latos to Jays on 1 year deal with incentives? Any love for this idea?
If I'm Latos, I'm not picking Rogers Centre/the AL East in general as the place I want to go rebuild my value. Pittsburgh reportedly has interest in him. If I'm Latos, that's where I want to end up.
You KNOW that David Price has only a couple (that's two) good years left in him? Well, GMs should be joining the chat for your insight.
Don't believe I ever said "David Price will start to suck when he's 33" -- I said he'll be good for at least the next couple of seasons, and the Red Sox should be happy if he's great for three years and opts out.
Can The Padres land Profar?
I don't see any reason that Daniels would sell Profar with his value at absolute rock bottom.
How about Tex to the pirates since they need a 1b
Too expensive for their tastes, unless New York is picking up a huge portion of the salary. Even then, he has 10-and-5 rights, so he can veto any trade. Yankees would need to eat something like $13-15MM and convince him to approve the trade -- doesn't seem likely.
What are the odds Miami trades Hernandez. And where does he go?
Assuming you mean Fernandez, I don't think he's getting traded.
How about a Shields for Tex deal? I know Shields is on for a longer deal but Yankees may need pitching and Padres could slide the LHH 1B slugger in and play Myers in LF.
Yankees are taking on something like $40MM in that deal, which they're probably not keen on, and Teixeira's 10-and-5 rights again come into play.
What do you think the Giants do about left field?
I still like the Giants as players for Upton, Cespedes and Gordon even after adding Cueto and Shark. They have tons of money coming off the books this season and a nice group of players that are cost-controlled pretty nicely -- Bumgarner in particular. They already punted one pick to sign Shark, so the cost, draft-wise, is less for them than other teams if they want to look at Upton or Gordon.
Any chance the Yankees take a flyer on Henderson Alvarez given his talent?
I think there's a reasonable chance of 20-25 teams having interest in Alvarez, and there's no great way of handicapping any sort of odds as to where he'll sign right now.
Joc, Urias, Homes, Micah Johnson and Montas for Fernandez? Too much or not enough?
Marlins reportedly asked for Seager, Urias and Pederson plus two more parts, so that's not getting it done.
Chances the white sox are able to unload LaRoche?
If they eat $6MM or so, I can see a club with a murky first-base situation showing some interest. Baltimore and Pittsburgh come to mind.
Shields is opting out after this year unless he stinks, so he's a one-year guy.
He regressed pretty notably in 2015 and is entering his age-34 season, so there's a real chance he does put together a sub-par season and keep the $44MM he has coming from 2017-18. But I do also think there's more of a chance he opts out than most are conceding right now -- especially with next year's crappy market for starting pitching.
Re: LaRoche to BAL - isn't Trumbo their 1B? They won't play him in the OF, will they? He'll be worse than Nelson Cruz.
If they were convinced he was their first baseman they wouldn't still be chasing Davis. They could use Trumbo at 1B and DH in a cycle with another bat, be it Davis, LaRoche or someone else. And he'll probably get some time in the OF even if he absolutely shouldn't. (They played Delmon out there fairly regularly, after all)
Ok, I have to wrap up for the week. We'll be back to a Tuesday and Thursday chat next week, and you can hassle me or Jeff on Twitter: @Adams_Steve, @JA_Todd. Thanks for chatting!