MLBTR Chat with Steve Adams 12-1-15
Offseason picking up a bit of steam -- we've got about an hour or so. Let's get underway!
$20 to take an actual Padres question today.
That would force me to go against my clear disdain and anti-Padres bias that is apparently widely known based on my activity in these chats though. Make it $50.
What do you see as Walker, Alvarez, and Melancon's trade value?
Alvarez doesn't have any. If they get a low level relief prospect back, that'd be fine. I'd really consider non-tendering him.
Walker has legitimate trade value -- the most of the bunch for me -- and I wouldn't move him if I'm not getting someone back that can either add big league value in a different way in 2016 or at least slot into my top 10 prospects or so with reasonable proximity to the Majors.
Melancon is fine, but he doesn't come with any surplus value. A younger, less exciting fifth starter or something is probably a useful enough return. Or some kind of mid-range prospects, but again, with the Pirates trying to contend, subtracting from the MLB club doesn't make tons of sense even if it frees up a bit of money to be spent.
Will Carter get traded?
I can see some other club valuing the 30-homer upside at a semi-modest rate. Needs to be an AL club though. Maybe O's if they don't get a Trumbo deal worked out. Cleveland, I guess, if they feel like Santana can play first base full time.
Shelby Miller for Jorge Soler straight up. Shouldn't the Braves ask for more? Last Friday, Jeff thought two premium, controllable players would be a good asking price.
I like Soler more than Miller, personally, but I'm not a big Shelby Miller fan in general. I think he's a fine pitcher, but more of the 3.75 ERA guy we saw from June on than the 2-something ERA we saw prior to that. Plus, I love Soler quite a bit.
Sounds like Atlanta might ask for more than that anyway, though. They're asking Ozuna+ from Miami.
Who ends up with O'Day?
Just a guess, but Nationals.
Inciarte for Shoemaker?
Shoemaker doesn't bring back Inciarte, no.
Would you be shocked if the Cubs brought back Dexter Fowler?
Nah. There aren't a ton of great fits for him in terms of teams with both need and spending capacity. It'd make some sense if he's hanging around in late December and the Cubs have filled some of their other needs. Center field is somewhat of a hole there at present.
Would the Astros give up a package of McCullers and ticket to get chapman
Doubt it. They could just put McCullers in the 'pen and get similar, albeit somewhat lesser value than Chapman. But they have McCullers for too long to give him up for Aroldis... let alone McCullers plus a lotto ticket type of prospect.
Gardner and nova for corrasco?
Not even close. Carrasco has way, way more value than that.
Latest on Greinke?
Seeking $30MM annually -- Giants/Dodgers in the mix at the moment, per Crasnick yesterday. Nothing major since. Our Free Agent Profile on him will go up today though, so there's that. Hooray profiles!
So Trumbo most likely to the O's? If so what could they expect in return. Does Jesus take over 1B in that scenario or do they go sign/trade for someone? Prediction?
Orioles are most likely right now I'd say. I don't expect the return to be much. For one, Baltimore's farm is terrible. Secondly, Trumbo just doesn't have loads of value, even if I do think he's undervalued by some of our commenters and readers who think he's just trash. I don't love Trumbo, but let him play 1B for a full season and he can be a two-win type of guy. Not a star, but value.
Montero's not going to be the everyday first baseman there. Dipoto would bring in someone from outside the organization, as he's done 4-5 times already this offseason.
Should the Pirates go after Shelby Miller after losing Happ?
Hasn't really been their MO to pay top of market prices in terms of dollars or prospects to bring in talent. Miller would cost them an arm and a leg from the farm system, and he's going to be making something like $4.9MM this year, ~$8-9MM in 2017 and then $13MMish in 2018 if he doesn't slip. That's expensive for Pittsburgh's tastes.
Can the bluejays acquire a legit starter for Kevin Pilar or Ben Revere?
Pillar more so than Revere, but I don't think they're looking much at the rotation at this point. They've added three starters and can go Stroman-Dickey-Estrada-Happ-Chavez. It's not a sexy looking rotation, admittedly, but that's what I'd expect them to run with. You could say they can put Chavez in the 'pen, but then why give up Hendriks for a reliever with less control?
Are the D-Backs the only serious contenders for Cueto?
If they were, I doubt he'd have passed on their $120MM offer. I'm sure Cueto has plenty of interest.
What do the Twins do with Nolasco?
Try to squeeze a couple hundred useful innings out of him or pay $10MM or so to make him go away in a trade? There's not much they can do there -- he's a sunk cost right now, and their best bet is to try to flip him for a similarly overpriced veteran at a different position. Bullpen, maybe, though there's not exactly an abundance of underperforming bullpen arms that are still owed $10MM+ that are coming to mind for me right now.
Will Lotte get a bid for Hwang?
I think so. I was surprised Son didn't get one. I'm aware of a handful of teams that are intrigued by Hwang, though I legitimately don't know right now if that intrigue will turn into bids. I lean yes.
Chris Young contract a little heavy to you too? I thought the Sox were loaded in the outfield
It's the going rate for a fourth outfielder. See: Rajai Davis, Nate McLouth, David Murphy.
Young can hit lefties well and play a passable corner outfield. $6.5MM per year is virtually nothing in today's contractual environment.
Peter Bourjos for Mark Trumbo. Who hangs up?
Actually makes some sense to me. I can see either guy getting non-tendered, and each player there fits the proposed org better than his current org.
Any chance D-Backs still land Cueto somehow?
Sure. They can up their offer a bit. They're still interested in him. Most teams that win the bidding on a player initially submit a few bids that are too low. We just don't always hear about them.
Royals trade Infante to Brewers for Matt Garza. Then sign Zobrist!!! Am I crazy?
I like the Infante/Garza swap, personally. Garza needs a new environment, and both guys would be going somewhere that allows them a better opportunity to succeed. Royals signing Zobrist is a stretch to me but certainly not impossible. I think I picked them to sign Howie Kendrick, but that's because I think Kendrick goes for three years and Zobrist for four. Others I've talked to think Kendrick gets four as well, which might take him out of KC's comfort zone.
Am I getting traded? What?! for who?
I'd be pretty surprised if Quintana went. There's just way too much surplus value on that deal. The return would have to be enormous.
Hwang contract prediction?
No way of making a reasonable guess without knowing the winning bid, honestly. And right now, no one knows what the winning bid is -- not even Lotte or the team that (theoretically) made it.
If the O's acquire Trumbo, does that mean Davis is definitely not coming back?
Could rotate them between 1B and DH, but I've never thought Davis was going back to Baltimore, Angelos involvement and Duquette comments notwithstanding.
How many people does MLBTR employ?
Think we're at seven writers (including Tim and part-time guys). Honestly not even sure how many developers or designers we have for back-end stuff -- I don't interact with that group much. More just the writing team.
Do the twins trade Plouffe or haqng on to him or do they trade him to SD for ross?
Plouffe doesn't get you Tyson Ross. Not close. I do think he'll be traded, honestly. I just have a hard time buying Sano in the outfield as a legitimate plan.
Most likely to repeat as CY or MVP next year?
A lot of reporters are saying zobrist might be $17-19MM were to me that is a little over valued. To me he is a $15-16MM. Where are your thoughts?
Totally dependent on the number of years. If it's three years, I buy $17MM per. If it's four, then yeah, $15-16MM sounds more accurate.
Didnt Billy say last offseason that he 100% will not trade Donaldson then traded him will history repeat itself with Sonny Gray?
Nope. An anonymous A's exec said it'd be stupid to trade Donaldson. Beane making an on-record statement and then Forst doing the same is a wildly different scenario. This whole "He said the same thing about Donaldson" misconception is off-base. Putting your name alongside a quote makes it significantly stronger.
If the White Sox can dump LaRoche (moving Melky to DH) or trade Garcia, who would should they target for the OF?
I can't really see it happening but I say go big and play for Heyward.
Couple of newsworthy items while I've been chatting.
Wilin Rosario elected free agency.
Twins have a deal with Byung-ho Park, per Jon Heyman.
Best hair in the majors?
Ohhhh. Bryce Harper, Chris Archer or dark-horse Brian Dozier all come to mind. And before you go hating on my Dozier pick, check out this glorious GIF: https://usatftw.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/7929...
What the contract (Yrs and amount) for Park to the Twins
If that were known, I'd have included it. My guess is something like 4/30 or 5/35, but that's just a guess.
Would I really sign with a team like Seattle?
I can't see Seattle forfeiting the No. 11 pick, but if they were going to do it, Heyward's the guy.
Whoa! Park signed for 4/12. Love that for the Twins.
Those numbers, by the way, were from Ken Rosenthal.
Are you surprised the Tigers got Jordan Zimmerman? And for that cheap!
I thought he had six years out there, but he wanted to sign early, and I believe that he placed some emphasis on that and on the Midwest area. Getting to six would've required hanging around and probably waiting for the teams that missed on Price, Greinke and/or Cueto to come to him.
Wilin Rosario on minor league deal to Jays in case Colabello flames out?
Think he's got a MLB deal somewhere, but I don't mind the Jays fit.
You had that Dozier GIF pre-prepared for that question, didn't you?
I have a series of GIFs that I find to be generally amazing bookmarked, and that, understandably so, meets the criteria.
Price for 7/210-215 too much or just right?
I think it's more 7/220 or 7/225 but if it's 210-215 that's still a hell of a contract.
Is there any way I can be updated when a chat goes live?
It goes out on Twitter. Or you can download the TradeRumors app and set up notifications for the "MLBTR Chats" category.
I'm not surprised by Park. That's more than Kang got and scouts projected Kang better
I was surprised it was that low. He got $1MM more in guaranteed money than Kang despite the fact that his posting fee was $7MM higher. Oftentimes, the posting fee can be used as a barometer to gauge the contract, but not in this case it seems.
Best bat flip ever?
That goes to the currently posted Korean 3B Jae-gyun Hwang. Check this bad boy out: (0:47 mark shows it in all of its flippy glory)
where are my questions?
Lumped in with the other 1900 questions I haven't been able to answer.
Your prediction on which SP the Giants pick up
Much to the dismay of Dodgers fans -- Greinke.
Multiple Choice: The Red Sox will sign...
A) Price, B) Cueto, C) Greinke, D) none of the above
I picked them for Cueto in our prediction contest.
Rather watch gotham or intentional talk?
I don't even like Intentional Talk all that much but Gotham is straight up terrible. Watched 7 episodes for some reason and couldn't get through any more. What a letdown.
Favorite non-starting MLBer?
Peter Bourjos, Craig Gentry, Jake Marisnick -- I'm a sucker for crazy gifted defenders even if they come with questionable bats.