MLBTR Chat with Steve Adams 11-24-15
And my Internet just briefly died. Goodness. Let's try again!
Heyward to the Jays? Lets them trade their outfield depth for pitching if price doesnt resign..
Issue with Heyward to Jays is same for me as Price to Jays -- I don't see them signing anyone for $200MM+, and I think that's where both Price and Heyward are headed.
James Loney + mid level prospect for Pedro Alvarez?
Loney for Alvarez is fine as a swap of unwanted first basemen, I guess, but I don't know that it makes either team markedly better. I don't think the Rays are adding a prospect to get Alvarez back. It'd be kind of a "Let's swap our junk and see if a change of scenery helps either"
Thoughts on Puig for Taijuan Walker?
Would rather have Puig than the young pitcher who has already had some injury problems and thus difficulty establishing himself. Have spoken to people who have some issues with Walker's mechanics as well. And, Puig's ceiling is just enormous, so even if he's more expensive, Seattle needs to add more than that for the deal to make sense to me.
Rumors of David Price wanting to re-sign w the Jays. Your thoughts?
I'm sure he'd be happy to re-sign there if they paid him close to market value. But he's not going to take like 5/125 to stay in Toronto when 7/210-ish is out there somewhere else.
Playoffs for Mariners 2015?
There's like 90% of the offseason left. There's no fair way to judge any team's 2016 chances right now.
Where would Asdrubal Cabrera end up?
Padres, White Sox, maybe Angels as a 2B option. His best shot at a multi-year deal is to market himself as a shortstop/second baseman.
Who are the diamondbacks mainly targeting?
High-end starting pitching that falls beneath the tier of Price and Greinke. Dave Stewart has been open about his affinity for Kenta Maeda. I think they'll be players for Samardzija, Chen, Leake, Jordan Zimmermann and Johnny Cueto as well, but the latter two probably land more money than Arizona is comfortable giving.
Depends on how quickly the TV revenue ramps up from the new billion dollar deal, I suppose though. Don't believe we've seen any hard figures for the types of increases they're in for near-term.
Could the Mariners be a player for Chris Davis?
Jerry Dipoto has said he doesn't like to build via free agency, and he'd have to forfeit the top unprotected pick (#11) in order to sign Davis. There's a fit on paper, but I can't really envision a scenario where he goes there.
Do the Twins sign Byung Ho Park by the deadline and do you think Josh Bell (Pitt), Jose Berrios (Twins) and Aaron Judge (Yankees) play in the majors in 2016?
Yeah I think they'll get something done. I have more confidence that Berrios and Bell will debut than Judge, but I lean yes on all three.
Shelby miller to Astros for daz, feliz, tucker?
If you mean Preston Tucker, that's probably not enough. And even if you mean Kyle Tucker, the Braves have been targeting players who are looking MLB ready in 2017, and that group you listed -- at least the two outfielders -- are more 2019 guys. (Maybe 2018 if they move quickly)
Who is the most underrated player in the mlb?
A.J. Pollock is my go-to answer here. He's a legitimate superstar-level talent -- one of the 10 or 20 best players in baseball -- and most casual fans probably have never even heard of him.
Does Cano stay in Seattle?
Yeah. All of this is based on one quote from "a friend of Cano" that was buried in the report by the guy who reported it. No disrespect to John Harper intended whatsoever, but if that were something he was extremely confident in and thought was a legitimately huge story, wouldn't it have found its way into the headline and been the focus of the article? It's comically overblown to me.
James Shields traded this offseason? Could be a decent backup #2 or #3 starter for those striking out in free agency
Shields carries quite a bit more risk/downside than most of the guys that are free agents, though. He basically has a two-year, $45MM player option. So, if he goes out and has a great season, he can opt out and try for either $50MM+ or just try to put himself with a team he likes better/that has a better chance of winning (depending, of course, on where he ends up). But, if he tanks, you're stuck with an overpriced declining right-hander that's at least two (if not 3-5) years older than the guys you could've just spent a few million more on in free agency.
Neise, Cuddyer, Lagares and Montero for Cargo?
Spare parts for a guy who hit 40 homers and emphatically rebuilt his trade stock isn't going to happen. Colorado would ask for one of the four starters you're clearly trying to avoid including. Cuddyer has legitimately negative trade value at this point.
Linecum to the Pirates on a one year deal?
You could say Lincecum to just about any team other than the Rockies or Phillies on a one-year, make-good deal and I'd say I could see some sense in it. Pirates make more sense than most because they're a great team that has done wonders with rebuilding pitchers, though -- both of which would appeal to Timmy.
Betts to the Mets as a possibility?
I'd place the chance of Betts being traded anywhere at about 1-2% this winter. I can't fathom Boston trading him, honestly.
How many years do you think Kenta Maeda will seek if he is posted?
Five years at minimum, I'd imagine. Could see him going for six as well. Also have to consider that he might go the Tanaka/Tomas route and try to work an opt-out in there so he can re-enter the market at 30 years old or something if he proves himself. There'd be a trade-off in terms of overall guarantee then, however.
Cargo - Wheeler?
A lot more for CarGo. Wheeler alone wasn't even going to net them Bruce last summer.
Souza a bust?
League-average bat who ran the bases well and played a passable right field last season in spite of injuries. No way I label him a bust right now. He needs to cut down on the strikeouts, of course, but there's 25+ HR upside in there to go along with a solid glove and good baserunning. People are overeager to term players busts, which is odd to me.
I still don't like the trade from Tampa or San Diego's perspective (Nats pulled in far more value), but Souza could very well be a solid Major League outfielder.
Kazmir to the jays, how much would it take?
Something like four years, $56MM seems like the top of his market. I was more in the 3/45 range when we issued our contract predictions, but I think I was in the minority among MLBTR writers. I'm a bit wary about the second half slides and his lack of durability, personally, but I can certainly see the market pushing him to four years, as Tim (and I believe Jeff) both feel is likely.
Arenado, Frazier, Longoria to the Angels?
After trading Newcomb and Ellis, the Halos have no front-line prospects left. Heaney for Frazier probably gets Cincinnati's attention, but I have a genuinely hard time seeing the Angels being able to offer enough to get either of the other two.
Should I take the Phoenix Coyotes Job??
Only if you're looking for a new, non-baseball challenge. I'm sure more than half the clubs in MLB would be interested in bringing Anthopoulos on board in some capacity.
Pagan for Papelbon?
Not the worst idea I've heard, honestly. Thing with Papelbon though is more whether or not the team would take on his personality, and I don't know that the Giants would go down that road, especially since Papelbon is the more expensive of the two. (Albeit only slightly -- $1MM)
Let's be hypothetical and say that Harper is open to signing an extension with the Nationals this winter. What do you think years/dollars wise?
15 years and $400MM+, and I'm not kidding. I don't think Boras would do it otherwise.
How serious does Heyward to the Angels sound?
Little more than loose speculation at this point, though that's where I picked him to go this winter, personally.
How many years is Asdrubals seeking ?
Probably trying for three and will ultimately settle for two.
What else do you believe the A's will do this offseason?
Anyone who claims to be able to predict Billy Beane's moves is selling you a story, haha. They'll add some relief help -- some arms capable of pitching high-leverage spots -- and I can see them looking at left-handed first base options (Davis is likely non-tendered) as well as some outfield help. Pursuing a Reddick extension makes sense as well, though the price there might be steeper than most would think with him just a year away from free agency.
What will chapman and Jansen command next offseason?
I can see Chapman pushing $70MM, which is nuts for a reliever, but that type of money over a five-year guarantee seems plausible even with a QO. Jansen has a perfectly reasonable case to blow past Papelbon's $50MM record and into the $60MMs as well.
The question will be whether both remain healthy. One year ago this time we looked ahead and thought, "Man... Holland, Chapman and Jansen all have a shot at the record contract for a reliever." We're down to two on that front, though.
Reds seeking too much for Chapman rental?
I don't think so -- they're selling one year of the best reliever in baseball plus the draft pick a team will get back for QO'ing him. And, of course, the right to try to woo him with a massive extension, however slim those chances might be. There's a lot of value there -- maybe three wins for the 2016 season plus HUGE leverage in a theoretical playoff situation and a monster July trade chip if things go south for the team. The ask should be large.
Any chance Fernandez gets traded?
I mean, in the same sense that any player could theoretically be traded, sure. But in terms of it being a scenario where there's any sort of likelihood, no. Another notion that's been blown out of proportion in my opinion.
Do you buy Sano in the outfield? Besides the Angels, who matched up for Plouffe?
I don't like it, but I'm a sucker for great outfield defense. They could do it for a year or so, I guess, then move Plouffe once Kepler is for sure ready. White Sox, Padres make some sense for Plouffe too. Marlins if they play Prado elsewhere or trade him. Oakland if they don't love Valencia at third base (and I wouldn't blame them if they don't). Astros.
Should I trade Melancon or Walker
I'd be more aggressive in moving Melancon than Walker. Some Pirates fans seem to have the notion that Walker is only popular there because he's a hometown guy when he's really just a very good second baseman. He's not a great defender, but the bat is above average (especially relative to his positional peers) and he's easily worth $10MM+ on an annual basis.
Melancon is good, but a team with that type of payroll doesn't need to be spending $11MM on any relief arm.
twins lose two starting outfielders his offseason in hicks and hunter are they really going to go with more unproven guys like sano arcia and kepler or do they sign a a 4th outfielder for a safety net
Calling Hunter a starting caliber OF is a bit of a stretch. He's more of a DH than a right fielder at this point. I believe their sincerity in saying they're going to try Sano out there, but adding a fourth outfield type who can run it down makes some sense. Craig Gentry is in DFA limbo -- just sayin'.
O'Day to Detroit? What's the chances?
Can't really put a handicap on that type of thing (at least not with any sort of genuine insight), but I'd say they're among the 4-5 likeliest landing spots just because of the need and their spending capability.
Will you buy me an Andrew Wiggins jersey please?
If you buy me a Karl Anthony Towns one, sure. (Former Wolves season ticket holder before moving out of state -- lots of fun to watch so far!)
Could brett lawrie be an answer for the white sox at third?
I certainly don't think Beane would be completely against trading him, and Lawrie is a better option than anything else Chicago has in-house, so sure, I can see it.
Drew Storen to the Astros for Luis Valbuena?
I think a team would offer more than Valbuena. Not knocking the guy, but the floor is pretty low there if the strikeouts keep trending upwards. It's not a terrible concept, though, and I don't mind the idea of the Nats moving Storen for an MLB left-handed bat.
Jean Segura for Wilmar Flores
I'd rather just play Flores at short. Segura has had two good months in the Majors and has otherwise been flat-out bad. I really wouldn't trade anything of value for him right now, and Wilmer has value.
Are there any free agents that don't have a QO attached that might take a one year deal and be a QO candidate next year? Basically, I'm looking for that compensation pick!
Sure -- the pitching reclamation projects make sense for that. Latos, Fister... I guess technically Lincecum if he can rebound to a full enough extent. I don't see any position players falling into that category. Austin Jackson might be the closest but I think there's two or three years out there for him if he wants it. Could try for the one-year cash-in and look for 3-5 next winter, but he'd need a really big year, and it makes sense that Boras would just try to max him out right now. He's not injured like Beltre was the year that Boras took one year for him in Boston.
How long will Zunino stay in AAA for?
I don't think there's a set time on it. Guy was rushed to the Majors -- give him some time to work on the offensive side of his game. The defense is already strong. Iannetta's a nice stopgap while that happens.
Who ultimately signs Chris Davis?
I picked the Padres in our prediction contest (AJ Preller connection, San Diego needs power, left handed bats and help at first base) but I'm also really liking Tim Dierkes' Cardinals pick.
Please tell me Ventura gets fired early and Bud Black steps in. Please?
If Ventura gets fired they'd probably just elevate Rick Renteria, I'd imagine.
Plouffe for Quackenbush... your thoughts?
Twins would probably want more than just the one reliever but I do think they'd have interest in Quack. (What a freaking name, by the way).
Why am I so obsessed with Scioscia? He's never won me a WS.
Did 2002 not happen in your universe?
Jokes aside, I don't get the Scioscia love, but the two clearly have a strong relationship.
Does Markakis have value this offseason? does it make sense for him to be moved?
Not a ton. He's a solid enough player because of the OBP, but his power went even further south last season and he's not exactly cheap.
Mozaliak has been great but how do you trade Shelby Miller, Tyrell Jenkins and Rob Kaminsky for 1 year of Jason Heyward and Branden Moss? I know Mo loves the draft picks he'll get but that's a lot for possibly nothing. Please explain if you can.
I get the Miller/Jenkins for Heyward trade more or less. Miller has some questions surrounding him, and I still think he's more reputation and hype than actual performance. (Outside of April and May this season, he was pretty ordinary.) Heyward's an elite talent, and the idea was to trade from depth to fill need and boost the team's World Series chances.
I have no idea why the Cardinals traded Kaminsky for Moss or James Ramsey for Justin Masterson in 2014. I didn't like either trade at the time and still don't. Even though Ramsey's crappy 2015 season softens the blow, the whole concept still looks questionable in hindsight. But, no GM/front office bats 1.000 in trades.
Could Dickerson or Blackmon be moved for an arm?
I'd love to see Jeff Bridich start moving more bats for pitching (Arenado excluded). Colorado develops tons of good hitters -- and not guys who are solely products of Coors Field (though you could argue Blackmon is that) -- why not ship some of them out for the arms they clearly struggle to produce? They'd be selling low on Dickerson right now after an injured 2015 campaign, but Blackmon makes all kinds of sense to shop around for an arm.
Possibility of a Puig Chapman swap between LA and Cincinnati?
Puig's too much for me to give up for a year of Chapman.
Murphy, can he really get a 4 year deal? How much per year?
Yeah -- I've had Murphy at four for quite some time, even before the postseason heroics. I had him in the $44-48MM range but I guess maybe the power surge could propel him into the low or mid 50s if some team thinks there was something in his swing they can get him to replicate. I think he lands around Headley's 4/52.