Apologies for the late start! Let's get underway

17/11/2015 20:21
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Steve Adams

82f90e2f7354ca298a92ab8a01d6c2a3?d=identicon

Scooter

How many (or who) of the pitchers the braves have in the minors or majors would it take to get Arenado from Colorado? Do you think it is even possible?

I'm sure they could offer enough to make the Rockies think about it, but you're talking about four years of a premium young third baseman that's excellent both on offense and defense and is being marketed as the new face of the franchise there. If you're not offering up two premium arms and a few other young pieces it's not even going to get the ball rolling. The cost would probably just upset Braves fans even further.

17/11/2015 20:23
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Steve Adams

4d236810821e8e83a025f2a83ea31820?d=identicon

Brian

Should Indians target nori aoki?

Reasonable enough add for them, yeah. He shouldn't be overly expensive in either years or dollars, which Cleveland has to like. He doesn't add much power to the mix, obviously, but an average or better bat with solid defense and baserunning still has value to that team. (Or any team)

17/11/2015 20:24
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Steve Adams

1b83d5da74032b6a750ef12210642eea?d=identicon

Mike

Why has there been a lot of inactivity on the free agent market so far this offseason?

This is how every MLB offseason goes. It's slow at the beginning.

17/11/2015 20:24
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Steve Adams

81b8a1b77068d06e1c8190825253066f?d=identicon

Steve

Do you believe Duquette will spend on Davis plus a pitcher and fill the OF and RP spots he's seeking as he indicated on XM radio? If so, who does he target as SP and OF?

I don't think Davis is re-signing in Baltimore. I do think Duquette can bring in a useful corner outfield option and at least one mid-level arm... probably not as exciting as many fans would hope. I can definitely see them getting into the mix on the Asian players that are being posted or coming over via FA. Ah-seop Son makes some sense there if the O's believe he's anything more than a fourth OF, and they could look at Dae-ho Lee at first base. Baltimore has a history of spending in that market -- Chen, Wada, Uehara, Yoon (though they obviously haven't all panned out)

17/11/2015 20:28
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Steve Adams

97ac12c998786a51a42ba33aeff414d5?d=identicon

Britt Burns Fan Club

What could the White Sox get for Chris Sale IF they determined they wanted to do a full rebuild?

They don't want to do a full rebuild, and Rick Hahn has already more or less said as much. To give some kind of indication, you're talking about four years of one baseball's best pitchers for less than $50MM in total commitment. Think about the absolute maximum you could stomach your favorite team surrendering in order to acquire Sale. Then double that price.

17/11/2015 20:30
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Steve Adams

8e4c8500fb823b206d2e96b9e5fc96ca?d=identicon

plato

is there such a thing as a lot of inactivity

Between this and Jeff's mini-existential crisis in last Thursday's chat, these sessions are beginning to take on a heavier tone.

17/11/2015 20:31
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Steve Adams

4c905fba155409b0c64d6239c5b9fcc0?d=identicon

Baltimore Chop

Who hangs up. Orioles trade Walker, Wright and Clevenger to Atlanta for Freeman and Markakis

In no way would that entice Atlanta to part with Freeman.

17/11/2015 20:32
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Steve Adams

D6pwemn4 normal

Ben Web

Will the Pirates sign anyone this offseason or just bring up pitching?

Would be surprised if they don't bring in at least one external rotation arm. We've been conditioned to expect some form of reclamation project revitalizing his career there at this point, haven't we? With that in mind, I like Fister, Hill and Latos as targets.

17/11/2015 20:33
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Steve Adams

316eb0581149b8343b7688c711a42f04?d=identicon

Erick

Should the Astros trade for a 3B like Todd Frazier?

Would make lots of sense to me. Some combo of Valbuena and Lowrie can probably handle the position serviceably, but the Astros have a deep farm and Frazier is a sizable, reasonably affordable upgrade for the next two seasons there.

17/11/2015 20:34
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Steve Adams

A8bd1982df6f68214d565a213ce054f4?d=identicon

Epstein

Berios for Schwarber

If the Twins think Schwarber can catch, sure. But then again, the Cubs seem to think he can catch, and if you're convinced that bat can end up behind the plate, you don't move him for Jose Berrios, impressive as Berrios is.

17/11/2015 20:35
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Steve Adams

D6pwemn4 normal

Ben Web

Hypothetical question. Can the twins trade the signing rights to byung-ho park?

No.

17/11/2015 20:36
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Steve Adams

19f1e45f4a39330d12d48a039eec5266?d=identicon

J.T.

Jeff Todd types faster.

He's better at most things than me. You're free to ditch out on this chat and only participate on Thursdays if you wish, haha.

17/11/2015 20:36
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Steve Adams

3ab3b95311066224cc0ca158b631a709?d=identicon

Russ

I'm seeing several articles about the cardinals targeting Chris Davis. This seems entirely out of character for them and I hope it doesn't happen. Could certainly see them rolling the dice on an aging vet like Morneau. I'm also seeing estimate of 10 years 200 million for Heyward. If that's what it takes, I think he is going elsewhere. Thoughts?

Heyward at $200MM+ and Davis to the Cardinals are both things we've been suggesting here for the better part of two months. Both make a lot of sense to me, though the Lance Lynn injury might shift the Cards' focus to the starting pitching market instead, and I don't envision them dishing out two huge free agent contracts this winter.

17/11/2015 20:38
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Steve Adams

030acfd68d0c19e8b0f891a8c0b525a1?d=identicon

Moose

Does Dominic Brown get a Major League deal? Relatedly, when should he expect to sign - early or late stages of the offseason?

I can see a team throwing a roster spot and a low base salary at him, sure. He'll probably be a fallback for a lot of clubs if they miss out on their initial targets, so I'd pick later in the winter, but there's no great way to gauge the timetable. Some club could think "We can fix this guy's swing now" and throw a big league deal and two million bucks at him right now and he'd probably think "Sounds good to me."

17/11/2015 20:39
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Steve Adams

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J

Blake Snell over/under 10.5 MLB starts in '16?

I'll take the over.

17/11/2015 20:40
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Steve Adams

8878e7050143a0fe4020498043fcc0da?d=identicon

Nate

Greinke to the Dodgers, Cubs, or somewhere else?

I picked him to the Giants in the prediction contest, for whatever that's worth, so I suppose I will stubbornly stick to that despite any other indicators that may arise between now and when he signs.

17/11/2015 20:41
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Steve Adams

0913c13f9bd9f32812202f617769c27a?d=identicon

O's fan

Now that Matt Wieters has accepted the QO, what is the likelihood he plays 1B when Chris Davis leaves?

He could see some reps there, sure, but if you're the Orioles, Wieters is most valuable behind the plate, so you play him there primarily. If/when Davis leaves, someone like Morneau or Dae-ho Lee makes sense at first base there.

17/11/2015 20:42
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Steve Adams

2b80f09163f60ce1774b438e605eb1f9?d=identicon

Will

Are the Padres rebuilding?

I'd say they're just shuffling their expensive-but-still-desirable assets for more cost-controlled pieces. Even if they had no intention of trading Kimbrel, the Red Sox more or less made an offer Preller would've been crazy to say no to (no way I give up that much for him).

Padres have money to go out and spend to address holes around the rest of the roster now in addition to some reasonably near-term impact pieces like Margot. I'd expect them to make some win-now moves as the offseason wears on. A team doesn't necessarily need to be solely rebuilding or recklessly going for it. Padres are probably walking the line between those two extremes.

17/11/2015 20:45
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Steve Adams

7f15f1ad99c489dc0314952535e424d5?d=identicon

Jeff

Any chance the Mets move Duda?

Doesn't seem all that likely. He's a solid option at first and his free-agent timeline aligns nicely with when Dom Smith should be ready for Major League action.

17/11/2015 20:46
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Steve Adams

18b74c52f70b4359d4361027b8d5b844?d=identicon

orville

Why have u not seen my questions

It's all a conspiracy against you, Orville. It has nothing to do with the fact that I've received more than 1,000 questions since this chat began 30 minutes ago. Sorry the truth had to come out like this.

17/11/2015 20:47
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Steve Adams

7c1f90bd9bdc70cc059640a7a6209389?d=identicon

Matt

Carrasco or Salazar for betts and moncada?

No way the Sox give up that much.

17/11/2015 20:47
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Steve Adams

D54b3c8fcd5ba07e47b400e69a287966?d=identicon

Jim

Who will be the Giants "under the radar" prospect this year?

I just assume Bobby Evans will find some guy sweeping at a local fish market In February and ask him if he likes baseball. Said broomsman will say, "Why no sir, I do not. What's baseball?"

And then he'll start the All-Star Game in left field some 5-6 months later.

17/11/2015 20:48
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Steve Adams

Ff44570aca8241914870afbc310cdb85?d=identicon

J

I liked the old chat format better.

We've been using this one for something like 3-4 months now and won't be going back to the other. Sorry you feel that way.

17/11/2015 20:49
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Steve Adams

48f84b509ce3971f3b9df0f5a23d7ad9?d=identicon

Jamara

Will the Tigers pursue Jeff Samardzija

Yeah I don't see any reason they wouldn't be interested. Shark, Kennedy, Chen, Gallardo, Kazmir -- basically anyone in that second tier of starting pitchers is fair game for Detroit, I'd wager.

17/11/2015 20:49
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Steve Adams

8878e7050143a0fe4020498043fcc0da?d=identicon

Nate

Giants looking to sign Kyle Blanks. Isn't Blanks just a poor man's Michael Morse?

It's a minor league deal for a guy who has a lifetime .786 OPS against lefties while spending his entire career in pitchers' parks more or less. I can find a lot more things to raise an eyebrow at than that. It'd be a fine depth pickup.

17/11/2015 20:51
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Steve Adams

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Anonymous

Did you think the return the Braves got for Andy Simmons was weak?

Not "weak," necessarily. Newcomb's very highly regarded and the Braves ultimately added a useful-ish one-year replacement that could be traded before the season even starts (Aybar) and some nice arms for the farm. But I was expecting a king's ransom for Simmons -- one that was so strong I couldn't fathom a team saying no. This doesn't fit that description.

17/11/2015 20:53
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Steve Adams

If you'd told me two weeks ago that both Simmons and Kimbrel would be traded mid-November, I would not have expected to like the Padres' return for Kimbrel significantly better. But I do.

17/11/2015 20:53
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Steve Adams

43fa7bcd8ee0a5ab1f692a4fffd7f484?d=identicon

kchammy

If no Gordon or Zobrist or only 1 of the 2 re-signs who do you think will he top outfield target(s) for KC?

Denard Span and Austin Jackson would be nice fits if the allure of playing for the reigning World Series champs is enough to convince them to play somewhere other than center field. Gerardo Parra, Nori Aoki and Ah-seop Son all make some sense here to me as well.

17/11/2015 20:55
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Steve Adams

E4310b75f2fa9595f8154411924b19b1?d=identicon

Rob

Will the Mariners sign any big game free agents, or should I plan for another long summer?

I'd be surprised if they signed a FA that required them to forfeit the top unprotected draft pick. That said, I love pretty much everything Jerry Dipoto has done so far and would prefer those moves to spending lavishly on free agents anyway.

17/11/2015 20:56
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Steve Adams

Bb6be4f3e089962d6504137576e930f0?d=identicon

Zunino to Twins

I want the twins to get a star caliber catcher for spare parts, make it happen

I actually loved the idea of the Twins buying low on Zunino earlier in the offseason. His framing value alone would make him a notable upgrade over Suzuki. But, with John Ryan Murphy now in play, I don't think they're going to bring in any more catching help -- at least not of that caliber. (Maybe some guys on minor league deals)

17/11/2015 20:58
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Steve Adams

318b2739ddc2c16c97b33c9b04b79f3e?d=identicon

Me

Carlos Santana to Pittsburgh for mark melancon. As a base for a trade, is this possible?

If the Indians are trading Santana, it'd be to receive controllable young pieces. Not an expensive one-year bullpen rental.

17/11/2015 20:58
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Steve Adams

Or, at least they'd move him for an MLB outfielder or third baseman that they can plug right into their lineup. Regardless, Melancon doesn't make any sense to me.

17/11/2015 20:59
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Steve Adams

D226e6d6d60e7994ecb62fc7ca77464c?d=identicon

Corey

Does Jesse Winker debut for the Reds prior to the ASG?

I'll guess yes.

17/11/2015 20:59
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Steve Adams

8217a2bfad582059922db159fd01bd15?d=identicon

ThatFurryGuy

Would you date my cat? He is very lonely

It's getting weird in here.

17/11/2015 21:00
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Steve Adams

Cdca201200a9e50d12e8784dfb429ee7?d=identicon

Fangraphs reader

Zobrist really a steal at 4 years, $60 mil?

At that price, no, I don't think he's a steal. The jury is out on how his defense will play in the next season or two. Metrics were way down on him this season but he returned really quickly from knee surgery, so it's not surprising that his range might not have been what we're used to seeing. But, Zobrist is also 35 years old, so it's fair to wonder if he gets all the way back to his previous defensive prowess. If the glove is starting to erode, then he's not really a great buy at 4/60, and the final year or two of that deal won't look so great. I'd try hard to keep a Zobrist deal to three years, but I think interest is great enough that something like 4/60 is realistic, even if I wouldn't necessarily want to go that high.

17/11/2015 21:02
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Steve Adams

81b8a1b77068d06e1c8190825253066f?d=identicon

Steve

Over/Under: 6/138 for Davis?

Over. I can see the years but Tim predicted 6/144 for his contract in the Davis Profile/Top 50 FA picks and I was comfortable pushing it higher than that.

17/11/2015 21:03
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Steve Adams

B0f694b89d9908ebe3433742c298543f?d=identicon

Jed Hoyer

Do I have the capabilities to Sign Price and Zimmerman?

Cubs aren't signing two arms of that caliber. One of the two, sure. Both? I'd be stunned.

17/11/2015 21:03
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Steve Adams

A6e43300cd419da1ffb3e8389919fa33?d=identicon

hungry

chicago or ny style pizza?

I love both and I refuse to choose because I'm the host and I don't have to so there!

I did have NY style pizza for lunch, being that I'm currently residing in New York.

17/11/2015 21:04
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Steve Adams

944facfeb153b4f01916a0f166fcc315?d=identicon

Chris

Status Update on Maeda?

Pitching in the Premier 12 Tournament and we won't get definitive word on his posting for another couple of weeks.

17/11/2015 21:04
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Steve Adams

4b0c118a97895d04a787b442a986ba28?d=identicon

Anonymous

I understand you are not a fan of what Boston gave up for Kimbrel. What part though? Every player they traded is blocked by an elite player already...at what point are trades like that situation, where they make sense for one team but not another with the same prospects. Are you not a fan of them getting a closer in return? If any other team traded those 4 people might be saying something different. Bottom line is they plugged a hole and they were all blocked anyway.

I have no problem with trading all of those prospects. But trading them all in one package for a reliever is madness to me. I'm not even in the "relievers only pitch 60 innings so they're not that valuable" camp -- I think an elite bullpen in the playoffs is a proven recipe for success because you can significantly up the usage of your best arms, and that strategy doesn't (or didn't -- KC has helped change that) get enough credit.

But that's the type of package I'd expect to see them part with for a top-tier starting pitcher, and that's always going to have more value to me than even a great closer. They players were blocked and were probably all bound to be traded, but the player for whom they were traded isn't someone I'd have parted with that talent for. Just because prospects are blocked doesn't mean they lose value to other organizations. Shrugging and saying "Whatever we didn't need them" isn't the way to look at it.

17/11/2015 21:08
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Steve Adams

6a061313d22e51e0f25b7cd4dc065233?d=identicon

Max

Will the Nats start saving up to extend Bryce?

Doubt Boras advises Harper to do anything other than hit the open market and try to reel in the first $400MM contract ever.

17/11/2015 21:09
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Steve Adams

A906912f529e393286ad60a784dd8103?d=identicon

That Guy

FYI Your chat software freezes every time I submit a question using google chrome and I have to refresh the page or use firefox.

Seems like something on your end. I use Chrome and followed along with Jeff's most recent chat and Tim's -- even submitted questions to Jeff just to irritate him! -- and it worked fine. Plus we have a large portion of our readership using Chrome and no complaints of this nature. I'll bring it to Tim's attention and ask one of our developers if there's any kind of issue, but I suspect that's something in your settings.

17/11/2015 21:10
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Steve Adams

D9ffaca46d5990ec39501bcdf22ee7a1?d=identicon

Tom

I think Yogi used to say, "lots of inactivity" didn't he?

Yogi used to say a lot of awesome things. I'll never get sick of a good Yogi-ism.

17/11/2015 21:11
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Steve Adams

Ff092a6973945d83aeacc70756d58b77?d=identicon

Liga Americano

Salazar or Carrasco to Toronto for Pompey, Aaron Sanchez, Conner Greene?

I'd imagine any package highlighted by Sanchez/Pompey would at least get talks rolling. Indians probably want a bit more value though since they're dealing the more certain piece (especially if we're talking Carrasco)

17/11/2015 21:12
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Steve Adams

83930fd731a92d37c5dbb39a9c5e6183?d=identicon

Doug

Would a trade for Kazmir make more sense for the Cardinals than going after one of the top free agent pitchers?

If they wanted to do something like Kazmir and Davis in free agency instead of just making a huge run at Price, I'd be on board with that logic, yeah.

17/11/2015 21:13
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Steve Adams

Ec96dbe582e8d2eb12551a7670a21215?d=identicon

PL78

Can the Zobrist hype get him $100M? If anyone deserves an overpay its Zorilla...

Can't see any way he gets to 100 at his age. I think even 70 is high, though not necessarily completely impossible.

17/11/2015 21:14
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Steve Adams

61409aa1fd47d4a5332de23cbf59a36f?d=identicon

John

Who is more likely to be traded, McGee or Boxberger?

McGee just because of the salary. Boxberger is still pre-arb in 2016

17/11/2015 21:16
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Steve Adams

2e00c0d058db1f9baaef9968e53b7628?d=identicon

Alex Anthopoulos

Was it a mistake to leave the jays??

If they weren't going to let you keep having final say over baseball ops, I don't blame you for leaving.

17/11/2015 21:16
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Steve Adams

Eefc6f1a0fa8147531fd5764ad68269e?d=identicon

Bill the Cat

Disregarding Texiera for a moment, why wouldn't the Yankees go for Freeman

Because they're not going to disregard Teixeira and Greg Bird, nor do they want to part with the necessary pieces to acquire Freeman. (Which would probably include Bird and several other promising minor leaguers)

Side note: Back in the day when my high school anatomy class dissected cats, our group named ours Bill. Nice to hear from you, old dead cat.

17/11/2015 21:18
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Steve Adams