MLBTR Chat with Steve Adams 11-17-15
Apologies for the late start! Let's get underway
How many (or who) of the pitchers the braves have in the minors or majors would it take to get Arenado from Colorado? Do you think it is even possible?
I'm sure they could offer enough to make the Rockies think about it, but you're talking about four years of a premium young third baseman that's excellent both on offense and defense and is being marketed as the new face of the franchise there. If you're not offering up two premium arms and a few other young pieces it's not even going to get the ball rolling. The cost would probably just upset Braves fans even further.
Should Indians target nori aoki?
Reasonable enough add for them, yeah. He shouldn't be overly expensive in either years or dollars, which Cleveland has to like. He doesn't add much power to the mix, obviously, but an average or better bat with solid defense and baserunning still has value to that team. (Or any team)
Why has there been a lot of inactivity on the free agent market so far this offseason?
This is how every MLB offseason goes. It's slow at the beginning.
Do you believe Duquette will spend on Davis plus a pitcher and fill the OF and RP spots he's seeking as he indicated on XM radio? If so, who does he target as SP and OF?
I don't think Davis is re-signing in Baltimore. I do think Duquette can bring in a useful corner outfield option and at least one mid-level arm... probably not as exciting as many fans would hope. I can definitely see them getting into the mix on the Asian players that are being posted or coming over via FA. Ah-seop Son makes some sense there if the O's believe he's anything more than a fourth OF, and they could look at Dae-ho Lee at first base. Baltimore has a history of spending in that market -- Chen, Wada, Uehara, Yoon (though they obviously haven't all panned out)
Britt Burns Fan Club
What could the White Sox get for Chris Sale IF they determined they wanted to do a full rebuild?
They don't want to do a full rebuild, and Rick Hahn has already more or less said as much. To give some kind of indication, you're talking about four years of one baseball's best pitchers for less than $50MM in total commitment. Think about the absolute maximum you could stomach your favorite team surrendering in order to acquire Sale. Then double that price.
is there such a thing as a lot of inactivity
Between this and Jeff's mini-existential crisis in last Thursday's chat, these sessions are beginning to take on a heavier tone.
Who hangs up. Orioles trade Walker, Wright and Clevenger to Atlanta for Freeman and Markakis
In no way would that entice Atlanta to part with Freeman.
Will the Pirates sign anyone this offseason or just bring up pitching?
Would be surprised if they don't bring in at least one external rotation arm. We've been conditioned to expect some form of reclamation project revitalizing his career there at this point, haven't we? With that in mind, I like Fister, Hill and Latos as targets.
Should the Astros trade for a 3B like Todd Frazier?
Would make lots of sense to me. Some combo of Valbuena and Lowrie can probably handle the position serviceably, but the Astros have a deep farm and Frazier is a sizable, reasonably affordable upgrade for the next two seasons there.
Berios for Schwarber
If the Twins think Schwarber can catch, sure. But then again, the Cubs seem to think he can catch, and if you're convinced that bat can end up behind the plate, you don't move him for Jose Berrios, impressive as Berrios is.
Hypothetical question. Can the twins trade the signing rights to byung-ho park?
Jeff Todd types faster.
He's better at most things than me. You're free to ditch out on this chat and only participate on Thursdays if you wish, haha.
I'm seeing several articles about the cardinals targeting Chris Davis. This seems entirely out of character for them and I hope it doesn't happen. Could certainly see them rolling the dice on an aging vet like Morneau. I'm also seeing estimate of 10 years 200 million for Heyward. If that's what it takes, I think he is going elsewhere. Thoughts?
Heyward at $200MM+ and Davis to the Cardinals are both things we've been suggesting here for the better part of two months. Both make a lot of sense to me, though the Lance Lynn injury might shift the Cards' focus to the starting pitching market instead, and I don't envision them dishing out two huge free agent contracts this winter.
Does Dominic Brown get a Major League deal? Relatedly, when should he expect to sign - early or late stages of the offseason?
I can see a team throwing a roster spot and a low base salary at him, sure. He'll probably be a fallback for a lot of clubs if they miss out on their initial targets, so I'd pick later in the winter, but there's no great way to gauge the timetable. Some club could think "We can fix this guy's swing now" and throw a big league deal and two million bucks at him right now and he'd probably think "Sounds good to me."
Blake Snell over/under 10.5 MLB starts in '16?
I'll take the over.
Greinke to the Dodgers, Cubs, or somewhere else?
I picked him to the Giants in the prediction contest, for whatever that's worth, so I suppose I will stubbornly stick to that despite any other indicators that may arise between now and when he signs.
Now that Matt Wieters has accepted the QO, what is the likelihood he plays 1B when Chris Davis leaves?
He could see some reps there, sure, but if you're the Orioles, Wieters is most valuable behind the plate, so you play him there primarily. If/when Davis leaves, someone like Morneau or Dae-ho Lee makes sense at first base there.
Are the Padres rebuilding?
I'd say they're just shuffling their expensive-but-still-desirable assets for more cost-controlled pieces. Even if they had no intention of trading Kimbrel, the Red Sox more or less made an offer Preller would've been crazy to say no to (no way I give up that much for him).
Padres have money to go out and spend to address holes around the rest of the roster now in addition to some reasonably near-term impact pieces like Margot. I'd expect them to make some win-now moves as the offseason wears on. A team doesn't necessarily need to be solely rebuilding or recklessly going for it. Padres are probably walking the line between those two extremes.
Any chance the Mets move Duda?
Doesn't seem all that likely. He's a solid option at first and his free-agent timeline aligns nicely with when Dom Smith should be ready for Major League action.
Why have u not seen my questions
It's all a conspiracy against you, Orville. It has nothing to do with the fact that I've received more than 1,000 questions since this chat began 30 minutes ago. Sorry the truth had to come out like this.
Carrasco or Salazar for betts and moncada?
No way the Sox give up that much.
Who will be the Giants "under the radar" prospect this year?
I just assume Bobby Evans will find some guy sweeping at a local fish market In February and ask him if he likes baseball. Said broomsman will say, "Why no sir, I do not. What's baseball?"
And then he'll start the All-Star Game in left field some 5-6 months later.
I liked the old chat format better.
We've been using this one for something like 3-4 months now and won't be going back to the other. Sorry you feel that way.
Will the Tigers pursue Jeff Samardzija
Yeah I don't see any reason they wouldn't be interested. Shark, Kennedy, Chen, Gallardo, Kazmir -- basically anyone in that second tier of starting pitchers is fair game for Detroit, I'd wager.
Giants looking to sign Kyle Blanks. Isn't Blanks just a poor man's Michael Morse?
It's a minor league deal for a guy who has a lifetime .786 OPS against lefties while spending his entire career in pitchers' parks more or less. I can find a lot more things to raise an eyebrow at than that. It'd be a fine depth pickup.
Did you think the return the Braves got for Andy Simmons was weak?
Not "weak," necessarily. Newcomb's very highly regarded and the Braves ultimately added a useful-ish one-year replacement that could be traded before the season even starts (Aybar) and some nice arms for the farm. But I was expecting a king's ransom for Simmons -- one that was so strong I couldn't fathom a team saying no. This doesn't fit that description.
If you'd told me two weeks ago that both Simmons and Kimbrel would be traded mid-November, I would not have expected to like the Padres' return for Kimbrel significantly better. But I do.
If no Gordon or Zobrist or only 1 of the 2 re-signs who do you think will he top outfield target(s) for KC?
Denard Span and Austin Jackson would be nice fits if the allure of playing for the reigning World Series champs is enough to convince them to play somewhere other than center field. Gerardo Parra, Nori Aoki and Ah-seop Son all make some sense here to me as well.
Will the Mariners sign any big game free agents, or should I plan for another long summer?
I'd be surprised if they signed a FA that required them to forfeit the top unprotected draft pick. That said, I love pretty much everything Jerry Dipoto has done so far and would prefer those moves to spending lavishly on free agents anyway.
Zunino to Twins
I want the twins to get a star caliber catcher for spare parts, make it happen
I actually loved the idea of the Twins buying low on Zunino earlier in the offseason. His framing value alone would make him a notable upgrade over Suzuki. But, with John Ryan Murphy now in play, I don't think they're going to bring in any more catching help -- at least not of that caliber. (Maybe some guys on minor league deals)
Carlos Santana to Pittsburgh for mark melancon. As a base for a trade, is this possible?
If the Indians are trading Santana, it'd be to receive controllable young pieces. Not an expensive one-year bullpen rental.
Or, at least they'd move him for an MLB outfielder or third baseman that they can plug right into their lineup. Regardless, Melancon doesn't make any sense to me.
Does Jesse Winker debut for the Reds prior to the ASG?
I'll guess yes.
Would you date my cat? He is very lonely
It's getting weird in here.
Zobrist really a steal at 4 years, $60 mil?
At that price, no, I don't think he's a steal. The jury is out on how his defense will play in the next season or two. Metrics were way down on him this season but he returned really quickly from knee surgery, so it's not surprising that his range might not have been what we're used to seeing. But, Zobrist is also 35 years old, so it's fair to wonder if he gets all the way back to his previous defensive prowess. If the glove is starting to erode, then he's not really a great buy at 4/60, and the final year or two of that deal won't look so great. I'd try hard to keep a Zobrist deal to three years, but I think interest is great enough that something like 4/60 is realistic, even if I wouldn't necessarily want to go that high.
Over/Under: 6/138 for Davis?
Over. I can see the years but Tim predicted 6/144 for his contract in the Davis Profile/Top 50 FA picks and I was comfortable pushing it higher than that.
Do I have the capabilities to Sign Price and Zimmerman?
Cubs aren't signing two arms of that caliber. One of the two, sure. Both? I'd be stunned.
chicago or ny style pizza?
I love both and I refuse to choose because I'm the host and I don't have to so there!
I did have NY style pizza for lunch, being that I'm currently residing in New York.
Status Update on Maeda?
Pitching in the Premier 12 Tournament and we won't get definitive word on his posting for another couple of weeks.
I understand you are not a fan of what Boston gave up for Kimbrel. What part though? Every player they traded is blocked by an elite player already...at what point are trades like that situation, where they make sense for one team but not another with the same prospects. Are you not a fan of them getting a closer in return? If any other team traded those 4 people might be saying something different. Bottom line is they plugged a hole and they were all blocked anyway.
I have no problem with trading all of those prospects. But trading them all in one package for a reliever is madness to me. I'm not even in the "relievers only pitch 60 innings so they're not that valuable" camp -- I think an elite bullpen in the playoffs is a proven recipe for success because you can significantly up the usage of your best arms, and that strategy doesn't (or didn't -- KC has helped change that) get enough credit.
But that's the type of package I'd expect to see them part with for a top-tier starting pitcher, and that's always going to have more value to me than even a great closer. They players were blocked and were probably all bound to be traded, but the player for whom they were traded isn't someone I'd have parted with that talent for. Just because prospects are blocked doesn't mean they lose value to other organizations. Shrugging and saying "Whatever we didn't need them" isn't the way to look at it.
Will the Nats start saving up to extend Bryce?
Doubt Boras advises Harper to do anything other than hit the open market and try to reel in the first $400MM contract ever.
FYI Your chat software freezes every time I submit a question using google chrome and I have to refresh the page or use firefox.
Seems like something on your end. I use Chrome and followed along with Jeff's most recent chat and Tim's -- even submitted questions to Jeff just to irritate him! -- and it worked fine. Plus we have a large portion of our readership using Chrome and no complaints of this nature. I'll bring it to Tim's attention and ask one of our developers if there's any kind of issue, but I suspect that's something in your settings.
I think Yogi used to say, "lots of inactivity" didn't he?
Yogi used to say a lot of awesome things. I'll never get sick of a good Yogi-ism.
Salazar or Carrasco to Toronto for Pompey, Aaron Sanchez, Conner Greene?
I'd imagine any package highlighted by Sanchez/Pompey would at least get talks rolling. Indians probably want a bit more value though since they're dealing the more certain piece (especially if we're talking Carrasco)
Would a trade for Kazmir make more sense for the Cardinals than going after one of the top free agent pitchers?
If they wanted to do something like Kazmir and Davis in free agency instead of just making a huge run at Price, I'd be on board with that logic, yeah.
Can the Zobrist hype get him $100M? If anyone deserves an overpay its Zorilla...
Can't see any way he gets to 100 at his age. I think even 70 is high, though not necessarily completely impossible.
Who is more likely to be traded, McGee or Boxberger?
McGee just because of the salary. Boxberger is still pre-arb in 2016
Was it a mistake to leave the jays??
If they weren't going to let you keep having final say over baseball ops, I don't blame you for leaving.
Bill the Cat
Disregarding Texiera for a moment, why wouldn't the Yankees go for Freeman
Because they're not going to disregard Teixeira and Greg Bird, nor do they want to part with the necessary pieces to acquire Freeman. (Which would probably include Bird and several other promising minor leaguers)
Side note: Back in the day when my high school anatomy class dissected cats, our group named ours Bill. Nice to hear from you, old dead cat.