MLBTR Chat with Steve Adams 10-6-15
Hello world. I am Steve. If you can read this, then we should commence a discussion about baseballs.
world series pick?
How could I pass the opportunity to make myself look foolish and be subjected to a litany of "YEAH HOW ABOUT NOW SMART GUY THAT'S WHAT YOU GET FOR HATING [Insert favorite club]" comments? Blue Jays over Dodgers!
I look forward to my yearly tradition of being horribly wrong!
Who would get your Cy Young vote in the NL?
Greinke -- but Arrieta's ludicrous final 4 starts since I last commented on it being an easier call have basically made it into a coinflip. I give Greinke some credit for playing in front of a worse defensive club and spending less time with a strong framing catcher (Grandal is great, Ellis isn't, and Ellis caught 50ish innings for him). It's really, really close though, and if Arrieta or even Kershaw wins, I'm fine with it.
How likely is it that Pat Murphy gets hired by the Brewers?
I have no insight into the situation at present, but Jon Heyman and Tom Haudricourt both made it sound likely yesterday, and that's a pair of accurate reporters, so I'm expecting it to happen.
Who are you?
My life is one giant existential crisis. I cannot accurately answer this. (Sorry phone rang in the middle of this highly pointless answer)
Do the reds bring back jocketty next year?
Yeah, though I guess I wouldn't rule out some form of bump to a president role, though not sure they'd make that without a young exec they've been grooming for GM.
Shelby Miller pitched 200 innings and had an era of 3.02 with the worst offensive support since Poland in 1942. Just wondering when he s coming back down to earth? Maybe next year?
Is that a reference to my early season comments that he'd come back down to Earth? Because he already did. He had a 3.77 ERA from June on with a 3.47 FIP and 4.13 xFIP. He was a good, but not elite starter regardless of run support for the final two-thirds of the season.
Who will accept the QO this year?
I don't think anyone will accept one.
There's no real incentive to accept the QO unless your earning power is capped around $16-20MM total anyway, and in that case, the team probably doesn't make it. I could see Buehrle accepting if he decides he wants to pitch one more year, but I don't know that Toronto would offer it.
Tigers need pitching in every way this offseason. Who are some names that they will target?
Kazmir, Samardzija, Kennedy have all been mentioned already. I don't think they'll play at the top of the market -- second-tier guys like those three, Leake, maybe a Brett Anderson seem more likely to me, especially with Verlander looking like he's back on track to front the rotation.
I don't know if there's a problem with my phone or the app, because every time I try to write a comment the app just closes. Is there any way to fix this?
Assuming you mean comment on a post, I'm not sure -- I comment from my phone frequently. Shoot an email through our contact form or tweet at MLBTR or me or Tim and we'll have the devs look into it.
Duquette mentioned a #1 starter via free agency or trade yesterday. Any names that make sense given the O's thrifty history with pitchers?
I have a hard time seeing the O's pull in a true No. 1 type in free agency. They could make a big play for Samardzija or Kazmir since both have the ability to pitch at ace levels, but in terms of landing Price, Cueto, Greinke or even Zimmermann, I don't see it.
Do you think former Twins manager Ron Gardenhire fits in with any ball club that has a managing position open this year? Or will he have to wait a little bite longer for another to open up?
He wants to manage, and there are multiple teams looking for managers with experience. I think he'll get one. Nationals make sense to me. Gardenhire isn't much of an in-game tactician, but he's a great communicator, and his players LOVE him. After the Williams debacle in D.C., that would seem to be a desirable personality.
Do you see the Yankees going after David PRICE?
Yeah, along with probably 6-7 other serious suitors thuogh.
This years Josh Donaldson traded at the winter meetings?
Donaldson would be the first player to win MVP (if he wins over Trout -- another coinflip) the year after being traded since Babe Ruth. I don't think there's going to be a Donaldson-level player traded this winter.
Chances Padres go after Alex Gordon?
I don't see why they wouldn't at least show interest. They were comfortable pursuing $100MM+ free agents last season, offering Sandoval a reported $102MM (bullet dodged), and they'll need a replacement for Upton. They have some internal candidates in Liriano and Renfroe, but I'd expect them to be one of the teams looking at Gordon nonetheless.
Most likely of my pitchers to be moved? Carrasco, Bauer or Salazar?
Bauer seems likelier than the other two, though they'd obviously be selling low.
Between Pedro Alvarez, Neil Walker and JA Happ - who is most likely to return to Pirates in 2016?
What kind of contract do you see Desmond signing and with what team does he sign it?
He can still get four years, and it'd only take one team to bump it to five. I feel like he can clear $60MM even with the terrible first half. He got the errors in check and posted nice second-half numbers, he's young, has a track record as one of baseball's best shortstops, and teams are always in need there. Mariners make some level of sense, Twins need help at short, but if I had to guess now (and it's a 100% guess), White Sox would be my pick.
why are you impersonating me?
I've been found out!
Lindor or Correa for Al rookie of the year ?
I'd vote Lindor but expect Correa to win.
Is Daniel Murphy worth a QO?
Yeah. Easy call, in my mind.
Avi Garcia a possible challenge trade candidate (bringing back someone of similarly disappointing status)? Teams like the Reds, O's, maybe Rox if they move Gonzalez would make some sense. Or should the Sox just hope to get a low level prospect back for him instead of non-tendering?
Sox love his upside as far as I know, so I can't see a non-tender, especially since his salary won't be all that great as a first-time guy. I'd expect them to hope for better results, since moving him now is just selling low on a guy they really, really liked heading into the year.
Would you give a QO to David Freese?
I wouldn't. He's a really borderline case, and I can see the argument for it, but to me, his earning power isn't TOO far beyond that, given his age. He's a solid enough player and if he were going to be 31 next year instead of 33, sure, but I don't think there's a four-year deal out there waiting for him, so it does become riskier to offer.
Then again, I thought the Rockies were insane when I saw Cuddyer got QOed, and that worked out alright.
Do I have a legit shot at rebuilding the Rockies under the current regime or am I doomed under the Monforts?
Three months ago I might've said doomed, but he somehow got Dick to sign off on a Tulo trade, so perhaps there's hope that he can start doing that. I don't know how anyone can build a competent pitching staff in that park though.
Why is Ventura still Managing the Sox. Can we hope it is only until May 2016?
Jerry Reinsdorf loves him. I do think he'll be on a shorter leash if they bomb early in 2016 though, since they'll probably have an active winter and add some fairly notable parts once again.
Would a trade of Matt Shoemaker to Pittsburgh make sense?
Angels have been working hard to stockpile pitching and have Weaver and Wilson off the books soon. Would be strange to me to move a pitcher they control for several more years.
QO to John Lackey? Does he accept?
I'd make it and expect him to shoot it down. I think he can find $15MM+ on a two-year deal and has a chance at three years despite his age: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/09/free-agent...
Is Chris Johnson's contract really that bad? That trade seemed like a bad one for the Braves.
I was surprised they took on both Bourn and Swisher, but the Indians kicked in something like $10MM in cash to offset the second one. Johnson's deal is bad -- he's just not that good -- but the bigger component to it was taking on extra 2016 payroll to free up that money in 2017, when they plan to spend more aggressively. It wasn't so much about dumping his contract as it was moving the entirety of that financial burden to 2016.
Predict the coin flip: Astros or Yanks win tonight?
Astros because I don't know why. Reasons. Picking a winner in any single game of baseball is a crapshoot. It could be the Phillies starting tonight with Aaron Harang on three days' rest and Philadelphia could still plausibly win the game. But for fun -- Astros!
Mike Leake, over/under 5/75MM?
I take the over, personally, but there are others on the MLBTR staff who I know would take the under. We're discussing these types of things right now actually, in advance of our Top 50 free agent list and our Free Agent Profile series.
NL Outfield Gold Glove Predictions?
I predict lots of Twitter outrage over an award that I consider to be among the most meaningless and inaccurate awards in all of pro sports.
Think Boston could pry Strasburg away for a mountain of prospects + taking on Papelbon's deal?
I'm sure Rizzo, like any sensible GM, would listen to offers Boston could throw his way. And the Sox have enough high-ceiling, top-tier prospects that sure, it could theoretically get done. But if you're Boston, why are you targeting a pitcher that is controlled for one more year only and is going to require $200MM+ to re-sign? Choose a different trade target.
How do the Reds gets Eugenio Suarez in the lineup next year??? Do they move Phillips??? Possibly Frazier to left??
Trade Phillips or play Suarez in left. I wouldn't move Frazier's glove off third base.
Will the Reds have a minor or major fire sale?
I don't see any point in stopping now. Move Chapman for sure, shop Bruce, listen on Frazier even (though I don't think they'll take the leap on that last one). They need some work to revamp that rotation, bullpen and outfield.
When is the top 50 FAs w/ predictions coming out?
Thought I had a firm timeline on that in my email, but I do not -- whoops! We did last year's in early Nov. after the World Series was done, and I'd expect a similar timeline this year. We'll be doing Free Agent Profiles leading up to it again as well as Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Outlooks start tomorrow.
Can I get top free agent pitchers to play at AT&T in 2016 ...The vault is open!
They'll make a push to re-sign Leake, and I do think they'll add a superior pitcher to him as well, even if that gets done. They'll be in on the top names, and while I don't know that they'll get Price (they could), I can see Cueto or Zimmermann as plausible targets.
Would a trade of Brad Miller for Brandon Belt make sense?
Doesn't address a huge need for either team.
Would the brewers consider moving Domingo Santana to Philly for 3b-Cody Ache and a young pitcher
Doubt it. Asche's stock isn't particularly high, and the Phillies shouldn't be trading young pitching away anyhow.
Who is Phillies gm
Total guess: Matt Klentak.
Grienke Arrieta Kershaw
Who wins the NL Cy Young?
Already covered this
Will Kansas City ever restructure Salvador Perez's contract?
I don't see a good baseball reason to do so. He'll be 30 when his current deal ends, and given how they overwork him, who knows how his body will hold up to that point. I see reports saying they're open to it, but I don't think there's a great case for doing so at this juncture.
With the emergence of Kyle Schwarber, do the cubs consider moving montero while he still has some value? possibly bring in a number 4 starter
I'd just keep Schwarber in the OF and use him behind the plate occasionally.
Bud Black to Washington make sense?
Does to me, sure.
Do you think the Twins will do anything this offseason to improve the rotation (other than waiting for their prospects)? Is their anything they can do (realistically)?
I'd be much more focused on shortstop and especially catcher. Bullpen as well, to an extent. If anything they should be trying to dump Nolasco.
Better beard me or James Harden of the Houston Rockets?
Alright, I've gotta head out. I'll be back next week and there's a possibility that we'll see a second chat this week with a different host! Ohhhhhhhhhhh intrigue! Mystery! Drama! Thanks for chatting everyone!