MLBTR Chat with Steve Adams 10-21-15
Buenas tardes. Sorry to delay this for a day -- had to hop on a plane back home yesterday afternoon. Let's get this going.
Xander Bogarts plus prospects for Harvey. Thoughts?
I wouldn't trade Xander straight up for Harvey, let alone Xander plus prospects.
And that's not a knock on Harvey, Bogaerts is just awesome, controlled longer and more difficult to replace.
Boy am I gonna get overpaid this winter! Woo!
I already had you at something like 4/44, but I'd bump the guarantee into the mid-50s probably, yeah.
chances mets sign cespedes
Three percent? I don't think they're going $150MM+. Someone else will.
Should I spend big on a young(ish) OF like Jason Heyward or Justin Upton with this new payroll space I have?
What's the point in spending hugely on a free agent when you're not going to compete for at least the first two years of the deal? Those are the best the guy is going to give you. Plus, what FA wants to sign with a team that finished with the worst record in MLB? You'd have to wildly overpay, and FA deals are already overpays by nature, for the most part.
Is a one year deal with the Pirates in my future to reclaim value?
I love that fit for Fister and Pittsburgh, if he's healthy. The crazy dip in velocity has me worried. He was throwing 84 mph this year. If an injury is the cause of all this, even Ray Searage and Jim Benedict might not be able to save him.
If you were the Reds would you trade me?
Bauer for Ozuna/Prado make sense? Fill with prospects as necessary.
Sorry, computer froze up there. No idea what happened. I just switched laptops, so we're good.
At any rate, yes, that framework makes sense to me. I suggested it in my Offseason Outlook for the Indians. Bauer's their most expendable young arm but still has plenty of upside, and the same sentence applies to Miami's outfielders. Marlins LOVE Martin Prado though, so he's not exactly a throw-in. The secondary pieces going from Cleveland to Miami would need to be fairly notable.
Cubs land Price 6 yr 200 Mil
I think he gets more than that. Seven years, $220MM+. Cubs will be in the mix though, yeah. So will about 5-6 other serious teams.
Matt Garza for Allen Craig?
Not the worst idea I've heard, but I don't know that the Red Sox are going to want to take on Garza to possibly just stink up a rotation spot. The money's about right, but the Sox don't have a ton of reason to make that swap if they're set on contending next season and fixing the rotation.
I'm late on this, but why did the site stop using Disqus for comments?
Comment moderation is much easier, allows us to own/control everything ourselves, and it made comment integration with our mobile app possible. I understand that the new system doesn't have all of Disqus' features, but we're working to add the features people want. It's not ideal, but we felt it was the best route to go. It doesn't take long to set up an account, so we encourage you to do so.
Who gets the 1b assignment for Seattle?
I expect Trumbo to be the everyday option there next year. LoMo could be traded or non-tendered.
Will Dusty Baker get another shot at being a manager?
I wouldn't want to hire him. Track record of misusing pitchers' arms, and I doubt he's on board with the increasing amount of defensive shifting and implementation of analytical information on the field of play.
Steve- I already got rid of Trumbo when once, and that's when people thought he was good. What makes you think I'm not doing it again!?
He got rid of Trumbo because he was able to pull off a heist and get Tyler Skaggs and Hector Santiago for him. If someone wants to come make that ridiculous of an offer for him, I'm sure Dipoto would move him again. And the White Sox got Adam Eaton in that deal. I literally cannot wrap my head around the concept of Kevin Towers trading Tyler Skaggs and Adam Eaton for Mark Trumbo. It blows my mind. I try not to judge trades too quickly, especially three-team deals like that, but I about fell out of my chair when that trade went through.
Alex Gordon? Royals resign him?
They'd need to give out the biggest deal in their franchise's history and do so by a wide margin. Like, maybe twice as much. I'm a bit lower on Gordon just because of his age, but I think he's in the $95-110MM range, and there are others I've spoken to that think I'm too pessimistic with that price.
In short, no, I don't think they'll re-sign him unless he's set on being a Royal for life and takes something notably less than market value. Or unless David Glass says "We can't let Alex go" and ponies up nine figures.
Do the Cards sign Cespedes?
Cardinals have never given out a contract that's the size he'll command, and they don't have a big need. Holliday-Grichuk-Piscotty in the OF would be just fine.
Take a shot - where does Chris Davis end up?
So early to be guessing, but since I spent a bit of time thinking about this earlier today when talking about his FA Profile with Tim, I'll say Astros or Padres. I reserve my right to change that up until the Free Agent Prediction contest locks! Ha
How many contracts do you see going over $200 million this offseason? Heyward, Price, Upton, maybe even Greinke?
Not that many. Price. MAYBE Heyward. Greinke's too old. Upton didn't play well enough to get there.
Does Houston keep Carter, Rasmus, Marianick?
I think Carter's traded, Rasmus goes elsewhere in FA. Marisnick will return.
Kimbrel's not really going back to the Braves, is he?
Wouldn't make any sense for me for the Braves to reacquire him unless they're going for it in 2016, and we have no indication that that's the timeline.
Is it possible the Royals have proven the sabermetric geeks don't know as much as they claim. They are the same team that was projected to finish below .500. They value productive outs, not striking out, and stolen bases.... All things the metrics say don't have a ton of value.
They value defense and baserunning hugely, which are two hugely important factors in sabermetrics. I think what's more likely here is that you're not accurately depicting what all those "geeky stat nerdz" value.
Assuming Baltimore loses Davis, would they trade for LaRoche to potentially replace some HR's or would they try an in-house option?
I do think the O's lose Davis, and LaRoche makes some sense if the Sox are willing to eat a few million and send him to Baltimore for a warm body or two. Adam Lind makes sense as well, but he'd probably command a more significant prospect return since he actually had a good season. Could roll the dice on Justin Morneau. There are options at first base, and they have a ready-made platoon partner for any lefty swinger they bring in with Christian Walker already in house.
what's up BIlly Beane's sleeve this offseason? do you expect sonny gray to be moved?
It'll be tough for Beane to trade Gray or Reddick after going on-record to say he wouldn't trade either. He could still do it, don't get me wrong, but I find it pretty unlikely. I'd say Vogt or Jesse Chavez is likelier to be moved, myself.
Yankees off season plan?
Mark Polishuk just wrote 2000+ words on this for us: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/10/offseason-...
Would Alex Gordon be an option for the mariners. Ownership has been willing to open the wallet. Will they this year.
Yeah, I think there's some sense there. Jerry Dipoto has already spoken a lot about needing to get more athletic and improving the outfield defense, and Gordon would certainly improve their glovework.
Washington is screwed for the next 5 years. True or False?
The Nationals have Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, Anthony Rendon, Gio Gonzalez, the best pitching prospect in baseball (Lucas Giolito), a really intriguing young CF (Michael Taylor) and shortstop (Trea Turner), plus a huge payroll to add around the pieces they have this winter. No, they're not screwed for five years. They're probably not even screwed for 2016.
Oh, and Joe Ross is awesome. And I'm probably forgetting others.
Stephen Strasburg, Drew Storen, and Yunel Escobar
Nick Gordon, Stephen Gonsalves, Kohl Stewart, and Nick Burdi
Firstly, no, that's not enough for the Nats. Secondly, Strasburg's only controlled for one year anyway, as is Storen. Why are the Twins gutting the farm for what would amount to a series of rentals?
AL Come back POY: A-Rod, Tex, Davis, or Madson?
A-Rod. Though I think it's awesome what Madson did after such a long layoff
Braves win 81 next year. Over/under?
How about we wait until we actually see what they do this winter since we don't have a clue what the Opening Day roster will look like next year?
If I don't get a Manager's job this off season could Detroit use my services as a pitching coach?
Any team could probably use Black's services as a pitching coach, and Ausmus of course knows Black well from working together in San Diego, so yeah that makes some sense.
Do the Giants pick up another starting pitcher besides Leake? Who? Do they win it all in the even year again?
I think the Giants will add a top-tier starter, be it Zimmermann, Cueto, or even Price. They'll be involved with most of the top names. Price would be a surprise, but they offered a huge amount for Lester last winter. (Not Price money, but $160MM, if I remember correctly).
How am I not even considered for AL Comeback POY in question below?
Ask the person who asked it. I'm picking A-Rod regardless.
AJ Pollock for Chris Archer?
As much as I love Pollock, Archer's controlled longer and cheaper, so Rays wouldn't do it. But have I mentioned that I love AJ Pollock? Because AJ Pollock is awesome.
Phil Nevin managing in the majors next year? Think he would be a good fit with the Padres?
Sorry, phone rang.
I think Nevin has interviewed for every open managerial vacancy, so he certainly has a good shot. That said, it does seem like Bogar is the favorite in Seattle, and the Nats might want someone with MLB managing experience after the Williams debacle. I know Nevin is an accomplished Minor League manager, but they might prefer someone who has more experience juggling MLB egos and communicating with highly paid veterans.
He seems like a fine fit in San Diego, to me, but I don't really know much about him other than the fact that he's hugely respected a as a minor league manager, so I'm not exactly one to comment on his specific qualifications.
How about Teixeira to Orioles to clear space on the Yankee roster if Orioles don't sign Davis?
He has full no-trade protection so he'd need to approve the deal. Might have some appeal to him as an Annapolis native, thought, I suppose. I know he talked with the O's when he was a free agent six or seven years ago. (Good lord I can't believe it's been that long since he signed his contract)
Bigger need for the Angels? LF, SP, or 3B? Who do you see filling these needs?
It's tougher to find someone to fill third base than it is left field, and they have a fair amount of promising young pitching. They'll probably have interest in re-signing Freese, though I could see Daniel Murphy being an option at third or any number of trade targets (Trevor Plouffe, Luis Valbuena to name a couple).
How realistic is Matt Wieters to the Marlins?
They really like JT Realmuto, and Boras will probably be targeting something like McCann money (just my speculation), so not all that realistic.
What's for dinner tonight?
Don't get me thinking about food! I'm trying to take a few more questions!
Would Chen be a fit for the Padres and they're right handed heavy rotation?
Chen fits into a lot of team's plans -- he's a pretty decent pitcher, albeit not spectacular. Padres have bigger needs than adding another mid-rotation arm though... namely figuring out who is starting at shortstop (it shouldn't be Gyorko) and who's going to play center field. And, if Wil Myers is a first baseman now, finding a trade partner for Yonder Alonso would be a nice move as well. (Brewers, Orioles, Astros come to mind)
Should I get an apartment in Chicago starting April 1st or wait till June
Only 125 games at AA under his belt. I'd say he opens the year in Triple-A for sure, but maybe he gets a late-April call-up like Rodon did. No harm in giving him three weeks at Triple-A for a bit of a look there. If he adjusts immediately, then consider a call-up, sure. At least then you have the extra year of team control.
Do the Rangers trade Choo this offseason?
I know he had a great finish, but I don't think anyone's taking that contract without the Rangers taking back a pretty substantial contract in return.
Why does it seem so hard to develop good third basemen? It seems like the good ones are really, really rare these days
Third base is always a premium position, but I feel like there are more good ones than usual in the game right now. Frazier, Seager, Donaldson, Beltre, Arenado, Longoria, Carpenter, Duffy, Machado, Bryant, Plouffe, Moustakas.... that's quite a bit.
How many times does Kim Ng have to be shot down before someone hires her? Token interview?
I dislike the assumption that she should be hired based solely on her gender. That's not a reason for her to be denied a job, but it's not a reason for her to be handed one, either. If she's not the best candidate, I can deal with that so long as the interview process is genuine. I don't know enough about her qualifications and methodology to comment on whether or not she should be a GM, truthfully. I've never met or spoken to her, though I've heard good things second-hand.
Do you think the Rockies can think about competing in 2016? I mean they have the talent, if only they could upgrade their pitching.
"If they could only upgrade their pitching."
The Rockies have been trying to do that for two decades. You can't just tack it on like it's a throw-in concept that can be easily addressed. They've failed largely at developing arms, free agents don't want to sign there, and trading for an entire rotation/bullpen isn't really feasible. It's much easier said than done, and I'll be stunned if the Rox are in contention next summer. They're really far off because of said pitching woes.
Surge is coming to gas stations and stores soon. How much will you be drinking?
I haven't even drank the 12-pack I bought when it got put on Amazon briefly, haha. I was all on board with reliving my childhood, but there's like 58 grams of sugar per can in those bad boys. It's actually disgusting to me. (Health-wise, that is -- the taste was fine, at least in a nostalgic sort of way)