MLBTR Chat with Steve Adams 10-13-15
Dodgers/Blue Jays World Series prediction is in some danger -- can't say I'm surprised. A prediction from me is pretty much a kiss of death. Let's get this week's chat underway!
What left handed bat should or might the Padres might go after?
If they can afford it -- and they might not be able to -- Chris Davis is the biggest upgrade they can make, and it's one of their biggest areas of need, given Yonder Alonso's good-not-great production. Also like them as a fit for Daniel Murphy on the free agent market, given that they can mix and match him/Gyorko as they see fi.
What's a reasonable off-season deal for Estrada? Is his performance remotely sustainable?
I think Scott Feldman range -- 3/30 -- is attainable, though I'm more aggressive on him than some of my MLBTR counterparts. I don't think it's sustainable without rediscovering some of his Ks and/or control though. Estrada's K% and BB% have gone in the wrong direction each year since 2012, and he got by on a .216 BABIP this season, which clearly isn't sustainable. He won't regress all the way to the league average (he's a .261 guy for his career due to extreme fly-ball tendencies), but he's not keeping it that low either.
Thoughts on Utley slide fiasco?
I hate that play and have spoken out against the absurdity of that play on a number of occasions in these chats, on Twitter, etc. It's ridiculous that players are conditioned to think it's acceptable, and the play itself is banned in the rulebook (it's just not enforced).
That said, suspending Utley was bizarre. I agree that the play is senselessly dangerous, but to give him a suspension for something that no one is ever punished for is weird. It should be fixed in the offseason, but this type of reactionary punishment does, admittedly, seem a bit unfair to Utley.
Cespedes - 125/5 at this point?
I'll take the over on years and dollars. He's topping 6/150 in my eyes.
Who do you think gets the Mariners manager gig?
Probably Tim Bogar. It's not uncommon to see guys rumored as the "heavy favorite" right off the bat and then end up getting the gig after the interview process plays out. Dipoto wants an analytically inclined manager, and Bogar fits that description. He also worked with Jerry in the Angels front office and has experience managing and coaching -- checks a lot of boxes.
Papelbon to Angels to strengthen Angels bullpen, take pressure off Street?
Can't tell if serious, but no Papelbon to Angels. We've already seen one closer get pissed off by being replaced by Papelbon. Street would be outraged.
Do you think the Rays 7 trade for Ryan Howard or Dominic Brown this off season
Howard no -- Dom Brown perhaps as a buy-low sort of guy, but they have a fair amount of outfield options already and he's not exactly a gifted defender.
Michael Bourn to Washington For Papelbon? Who says no?
That one's actually somewhat interesting, though I don't recall off hand if Papelbon's no-trade protection carried over into his new contract. Then again, if you're the Braves, do you really want to add Papelbon to a team full of young guys? I don't think anyone's going to want to touch him this winter in a trade.
What do you think of the Kiley McDaniel hire by the Braves?
Kiley's a smart guy. Personable, works really hard. I've met/spoken to him a number of times and am impressed by his ability to juggle a knowledge of Major League teams, minor league systems and international prospects -- I like it.
How much did Cueto hurt his free agent contract with his big slide earlier? How much will another good playoff start help him?
I don't think one more big playoff outing undoes the concern surrounding his iffy run at the end of the season or his rocky ALDS start. Might've cost himself $20MM, though I still think five years is a lock and six is possible.
Chances Bud Black become Nationals Manager?
Black and Gardenhire seem like strong candidates to me as experienced guys with reputations of good communication -- basically the opposite of what Williams brought to the table.
Will Stephen Drew get a major league contract?
Yeah, probably not a great one, but someone will throw $4-5MM at him. Still showed power and passable defense, so someone will take a chance on being able to figure out what happened to all of his line drives. He BABIP'ed .201, and while it wasn't all poor luck, I'd be surprised if he was that low for a third straight year.
Chances David Price resigns with Toronto if the Jays get knocked out in the first round, or in general?
I don't think the postseason outcome necessarily matters -- I don't see Toronto being able to go up to $225MMish, and that's the type of contract I can see him commanding.
How is it that white sox management can put up with the one step forward and two steps back management style of robin ventura...sox fans deserve more.
Lots of blame placed on Ventura, and while he's not a great manager, it's not like the Sox would've contended with a different manager in 2015. I expect a short leash for him in 2016, if that makes you feel any better.
What kind of contract does Doug Fister get? Did this year kill his value?
I don't know if there's a player that hurt his free agent value any more in 2015 than Doug Fister. I almost never advocate for one-year, pillow contracts but it'd make sense for Fister this season. Take $10-13MM on a one-year deal, spend a year in a rotation and hope to prove that this year was a fluke. Other option is to just take the best two-year deal he can get, but he might have to settle for 20%ish of his former FA value if that's the route he goes.
Who is this offseason's Scott Feldman when he signed with Cubs?
Dillon Gee? He kind of fits that mold of young-ish guy with mid-rotation upside and some semblance of a track record. I also think Mat Latos on a one-year deal, if he's looking to go that route instead of the Phil Hughes route (i.e. max out the dollars even if it's a disappointing sum), would be a good buy-low candidate. Any sort of rebound and he's a great midseason trade candidate (or just a nice bargain if he's on a contending club).
Who goes after chapman this winter
D-Backs, Yankees, Astros, Cubs, Dodgers, Rangers all make some sense to me.
Does Evan Gattis get non tendered in the offseason?
I don't think so. The Astros seem more OK with the lower-OBP but plenty of power skill set than other teams. I don't like him much as a player, but he'll be a reasonably cheap source of power.
Could Fister end up back in Detroit?
Sure. They need rotation help and he might welcome the opportunity to reunite with the coaching staff and pitch in a spacious ballpark.
Julio Teheran for Jorge Soler?
Don't think Teheran brings back Soler after the rough year Teheran had.
why do you think Jays can not go to $225mil on a contract? they arguably have the highest valued local TV rights of any MLB team. I said value, because they manipulate the price since they are the buyer and seller of the contract
Because they've never approached that level before and the current ownership/front office regime has imposed a five-year limit on contracts.
Has Johnny Giavotella impressed enough to stick around at 2nd base?
He's not even arb eligible so I'm sure he'll stick around, but I don't know that he's been impressive enough to play second regularly again in 2016. He's a sub-par defender without great OBP skills and no power to speak of. Seems like a bench piece at best, to me, which isn't necessarily a bad thing for a player. I just don't think a contending club like the Angels should feel set with him starting.
Biggest surprise. Mets, Cubs, Astros?
Astros were the biggest surprise. Figured they could be a winning team, but closer to what the Twins did in 2015 than making the postseason. McCullers' dominant performance was particularly unexpected.
Could Zack Britton be moved back into a starting role to become the Orioles much needed ace?
Britton struggled in the rotation for years and has turned into one of the 3-5 best relievers in baseball. He's immensely valuable as is, and I don't see a huge reason to mess with it if it's working now.
We know 2016 is out. Can the Reds compete in 2017?
Depends on how extreme the rebuild is this winter. If they get good value for not only Chapman, but Todd Frazier and Jay Bruce as well, shed Brandon Phillips' deal, then it's possible. But for now it's pretty early to make that call since we don't know if Jocketty & Co. will kind of go halfway on the rebuild and hang onto Frazier and others.
DO you see the WhiteSox making a run at Wieters?
I think they'll be in that market, though I know Tim Dierkes thinks they can run with Flowers next season on the strength of his improved pitch-framing. I just don't think Flowers has the bat -- if they want to make him a backup option, that's great, but to me he's not a fringe starter, especially since we don't know to what extent the defensive improvements will carry over in future seasons.
Fister or latos to the Rockies maybe? If not them what other free agent Starters can you see them targeting?
If you're looking to rebuild value on a one-year deal, you don't go to Coors Field.
Has Ryan Goins played himself into Devon Travis' 2B spot for 2016? Who's the starter, and who's the backup?
Travis should and most likely will still be the starter moving forward, but no reason Goins can't see plenty of time as a utility guy and a late-inning defensive replacement.
In light of the failed bathancourt court experiment, how bad do braves miss Gattis
Gattis had a .285 OBP this season, and Pierzynski did a fine job as the primary catcher. I don't think they're missing him much. I still take the Braves' end of that deal.
Best trade option for catcher for my team (Twins)
Jonathan Lucroy, Christian Bethancourt, Mike Zunino and Austin Hedges all come to mind, though the latter three haven't proven much (offensively) in he Majors, and Lucroy had concussion issues late in the year.
John Lackey getting a QO? Will he sign it if he does?
Yes QO, but an easy call to turn it down, unless he's not sure he wants to play 2+ more seasons.
If Dodgers don't advance, would that likely push Grienke to opt out and leave LA? What type of contract would he likely get given his age?
Greinke is 100% opting out whether they get bounced in the NLDS or win the World Series. He's got $140-150MM waiting for him in FA and possibly more if a team's willing to go to six years. (Recently, pitchers haven't been guaranteed money in their age-37 season, which would be required for him to get six years)
Over/under 5/110mm for J. Zimmermann?
Over on the total. I think he can get six years, personally, though some here at MLBTR think he's topping out at five.
As a Pirates fan, I'm still licking my wounds. With the Cardinals paranormal abilities to turn 9th round picks into studs and the Cubs insane future, are we destined to forever play in the Wild Card game?
Pirates missed the division by two games and have their own demon wizard powers -- namely turning mediocre pitchers into elite performers. I see no reason they can't win a division title in the next couple of years. That division is so stacked (making it all the more important for Milwaukee and Cincinnati to completely blow it up and rebuild.)
What is the fate of Erik Kratz?
Free agency and a minor league deal.
Is Utley considered a "dirty player"? Do you think people will remember him more from this or his great career?
For his career. He's known for playing insanely aggressive and with reckless abandon, but that's earned him a lot of praise and love. Utley is a borderline HOFer (though he probably falls shy), and while I hate that play with an unbridled passion, it's more the league's fault than his that it happened. This should've been fixed a long time ago, and it's not like Utley is the first person to injure someone on that play. His slide was particularly egregious, but that's not going to make him some reviled villain after his career ends.
Why are the boston writers still talking about trading bogaerts and/or betts? I've been hearing Harvey for bogaerts (and other players) rumor
Every time I've seen that it's been phrased as "The Sox are a fit for Harvey, but they're not going to part with Bogaerts to get him."
Neil Walker to Yankees? Option for 2nd base. I have read they are open to trading him.
Yeah it makes some sense, though recent media reports have said the early plan is Ackley/Refsnyder in 2016. I have a hard time buying into that, personally. Walker makes some sense, but he's a one-year stopgap unless they re-sign him.
In a nutshell, what's the difference between fWAR and rWAR and which do you prefer?
Calculated using different defensive metrics for hitters. fWAR for pitchers is based on FIP as well.
My preference depends on what I'm using WAR for. There's never any singular stat I'll use in any given situation. I think it's better to recognize that neither is infallible and use both, in addition to other stats, when making your evaluation of a player.
Any new news on Eddy Julio Martinez? Bobby Evans sure seemed like he thought SF still had a shot at getting him. Cubs haven't officially announced the deal.
Nothing new -- it's a really weird situation and I won't feel comfortable saying it's done until one team actually announces it. My expectation right now is Cubs, but yeah, I wouldn't consider it final just yet.
How good would Alex Gordon loom patroling LF in Oakland
He'd look good in LF for any club, but I highly doubt Oakland is going to want to go $100MM+ on any free agent.
You think Mets could win it all this year? Maybe next?
Any team that makes the playoffs can win it all. Short series are largely a crap shoot.
Ｗhat team and what contract do you think Wei-yin Chen can get this winter?
Too early to predict teams, but he's got $50MM+ on a four-year deal out there, I'd say. Ervin Santana money might be reasonable, though I'm sure Boras will be looking for five years.
Which pitchers will the Dbacks sign? Do you think they're giving up their 1st pick?
Doesn't make much sense for a team in their spot to give up the #13 pick next year. Then again, Dave Stewart hasn't exactly indicated that he strongly values draft talent (the Touki Toussaint comments on his "value" equaling his signing bonus were pure insanity). They do have the new TV deal, but I'd like them better for the Scott Kazmir/Jeff Samardzija "could pitch like an ace" types than the actual David Price/Zack Greinke established ace types.
Should Olivera be moved to LF, as his defense at 3B is not very good?
He's going to play 3B in winter ball and in Spring Training. Braves' fans immediate desire to judge him based on 15-20 games is truly bizarre to me.
Ok, I have to wrap up for the week. Jeff will chat on Thursday afternoon, and you can always send more questions to the mailbag (email@example.com) or ask me on Twitter: @Adams_Steve.
Thanks for chatting!!