MLBTR Chat with Steve Adams 1-5-16
Apologies on another late start -- will aim for normal time next week and hang around longer today to make up for the delay. Let's get underway!
Where will Wilin Rosario end up? Will he get a major league deal?
I think he gets a big league deal, though I'm a little surprised that there's been so little talk about him. I think he's a fine AL piece -- fill in at C/1B/DH against lefties and provide some pop off the bench. I like him as a fit in Toronto.
Is Arnold Leon it for the Jays offseason?
Nah -- still think they'll add a reliever or something once the market dries up a bit more and they can get someone at a discount. In general, I don't mind that the Jays, Twins and a few other clubs haven't aggressively pursued relief help. The prices to this point have been way higher than I anticipated.
Yasmany Tomas and Jimmy Sherfly to BAL for Zach Britton. Who says no?
I don't think Tomas has much in the way of trade value at this point, and Britton's value is at an all-time high. Orioles don't go that route.
What do you think of the Mike Leake deal? Good or bad signing?
It's what I expected -- I said 5/80 in his November profile, though I could've envisioned it landing anywhere fro 75 to 90 million, realistically. It's a fine deal. He's a young free agent, so STL is buying more of his prime than if they'd gone elsewhere for rotation help. Leake should give them 190-200 innings of an upper 3.00s ERA each year with good defense at his position and a good bat, relative to other pitchers. Not bad for the Cards at all.
Are you receiving my questions?
Sure am. Yours and a few hundred others so far. No way to get to all of the questions we receive in these, though I do publish one of these from time to time just to let newcomers know it's nothing personal. I'll probably receive 1500 questions today, so apologies if I don't get to yours.
What does a JD Martinez Extension look like, and when do those conversations start?
I wrote about a Martinez extension in the Tigers' Offseason Outlook and pegged it at something like six years, $110MM. There's not a huge discount to be had on him at this point now that he's hit arb for a second time. You can read a much lengthier examination of it in that Outlook piece here:
Is Edwin Jackson a good fit for the Marlins?
He's fine as a depth piece. Looked OK as a reliever last season and gives them rotation depth in the event that they can't lure someone more exciting. People will mock it, because it's the Marlins and Jackson stunk in 2013-14, but for what should be the league minimum, I don't mind the roll of the dice at all.
The Empire or The First order?
Empire! I liked Force Awakens quite a bit, but I still prefer the original three. Worlds better than eps 1-3 though.
Does Markakis have any trade value?
Three years and $33MM for a guy who showed zero power last season and has had some injuries, at his age... I don't think so.
When will things pick up?
Honestly it's tough to say, because this isn't a conventional offseason. In a normal year, I'd expect things to begin picking up in mid- to late January as the remaining free agents lower their expectations a bit and as the field of suitors narrows. But, there are so many quality free agents left on the market... the remaining group right now is better than the entire 2016-17 class of FAs. I don't have a great answer because we haven't really seen a group of free agents this good in a long, long time. Certainly not under this iteration of the CBA.
I ask this question each week but do you see Giants moving Susac with Brown looking so good? Seems like Susac, Arroyo package could get good results
I think Susac can be someone's everyday catcher, and it's not going to happen in SF, so he makes sense to me as a trade chip.
Are you the man with the yellow hat?
In that scenario I think I'm the troublemaking primate.
Are the Tigers and Twins done?
Still fully expect the Twins to trade for a lefty reliever and maybe sign another low-cost one -- bring back Neal Cotts, for instance.
I'm in the "Al Avila is done, but Mike Ilitch probably isn't" camp that thinks Ilitch might go over his GM's head and sign a high-priced left fielder.
Trea Turner - will he be in the starting lineup on opening day?
Nah, I think Espinosa opens the year at shortstop.
Illitch has money. Any chance he forces Avila to throw big $'s at an Outfielder for a 2-3 year deal, and it gets accepted?
Not for 2-3 years, but like I just said, I do think there's a very real chance he breaks the bank on another big signing.
1for 1: Soler for Carrasco or Salazar, who says no?
I don't think the Indians do it. Soler had some pretty big durability issues in the minors and just wasn't that good in 2015. I'm still a big fan of Soler, but I think Cleveland would want more, since the stock of the guys they're moving is currently higher.
Plus, Soler can opt into arbitration once he gets enough service time, so he'll be considerably more expensive than Carrasco.
Dark horse for Upton?
Nationals? Mike Rizzo drafted Upton with the first overall pick when he was Arizona's scouting director. Knows him well and could easily shift Harper to center for two seasons while Werth's contract finishes up.
Will Freddie Last the year with the Braves ?
Seems like he's the face of the franchise for the SunTrust Park era -- I don't expect him to be traded at all, be it this winter or during the season.
Any chance the A's trade Josh Reddick?
In July, I'd say it's possible, if Oakland isn't contending. I don't think they'll do it this winter. Beane actually said he wants to extend him, but with Reddick a year from free agency, that's a tough task for Oakland. Next year's class is thin, and Reddick has shown 20-30 HR pop with elite right field defense. He'll be going into his age-30 season. Platoon splits notwithstanding, he's going to get paid handsomely.
Should the Cubs try to trade Hammel or maybe package Hendrix/Soler for something better?
I like the idea of them packaging Hendricks in an effort to upgrade their rotation. If it's Hendricks+Soler, they'd have to get a pretty nice arm in return though -- one with multiple years of control remaining.
I've seen a few articles recently suggesting that the Red Sox should trade Rusney Castillo and sign either Upton or Gordon. What likelihood is there of the Sox making such a move(s) and giving up the #12 draft pick?
The Gordon thing is nothing new. He was connected to Boston pretty heavily at the onset of free agency. I don't think Castillo has a lot of trade value given his contract, so Bradley is the more movable piece in that scenario. A Gordon-Betts-Castillo outfield would probably be pretty sound, defensively. I wouldn't put it past Dombrowski, but I'm not expecting it as a likely outcome or anything.
Do the Rays have anything in the works? They need some bats.
They've been linked to trades involving their relievers and starters for quite some time. I don't think they're going to necessarily add much in the way of MLB-ready bats if they move one of them, though. I think they're set with a Jennings-Kiermaier-Souza OF and Longoria-Miller/Beckham-Forsythe-Loney/Shaffer/LoMo around the infield and at DH. I would like to see them add a catcher, but they have Rivera, Casali and Conger back there already -- none excite me, but the Rays love them some quality pitch-framing.
How much do you think Justin Masterson could be signed for and do you think he will bounce back?
I'm not even sure he gets a Major League deal. He's been awful for two straight seasons and had 2-3 surgeries in that time. If he gets a big league deal, I don't think it's for more than $2-3MM. As for whether or not he bounces back, I think that's entirely dependent on his health. I'd endorse a team like the Pirates or Marlins rolling the dice to find out though.
Invasion of Mikes
Why is Dave Stewart saying he won't forfeit draft picks for free agents when he already forfeited his top pick for Greinke? I think Howie Kendrick is worth a second round pick.
Jeff Todd and I chatted about this last night after Stewart went public with that comment. It's one of the most bizarre things I've seen in awhile, and I frankly just don't believe him at all. As you said, they already surrendered a nice pick for Greinke. But it's more than that. Arizona traded the #1 overall pick from 2015 already (Swanson), traded its 2014 first-rounder for salary relief (Toussaint) and also included one of its 2013 first-rounders (Blair) in the Miller deal as well. They don't seem to value draft picks all that highly whatsoever. To me, this is Stewart just taking a firmer tone in negotiating through the media. This club is the definition of an "all-in" team (pardon the cliche), and to draw a line in the sand now after coming this far is nuts.
Gonzales, Reyes and Adams for Carlos Gonzalez....no?
That's actually not a bad offer from the Cards' standpoint. Would depend on the health of Gonzales' shoulder, but I can see Colorado having interest in something like that.
Dexter Fowler to the Giants?
If I'm San Francisco, I'm not "settling" for Fowler. If you're going to give up the pick, just go for broke and sign Upton or Gordon. Or, just spend more for Cespedes. I don't think Dexter Fowler going to a Warriors game is really indicative of anything though. If he were deep in negotiations and they didn't want word getting out, I doubt he'd be tweeting pics of himself at the arena.
Alex Wood , De leon, Vanslyke, and holmes for Sonny Gray who says no?
I'd say they need to give more, but I'd have said the same thing if you tossed out Lawrie/Graveman/Nolin/Barreto for Donaldson last winter. Still, given Beane and Forst's on-record comments about not wanting to move Gray, I think they'd need to be more overwhelmed than that.
When do we see Madbum get re-extended?
There's no real reason for them to do that at all right now. They control him dirt cheap through 2019. Madison Bumgarner is going to make $12MM in 2019 -- imagine what elite SPs are going to commanding at that time given the rate of inflation. There's just no real reason to do so for another 2-3 years... do they really want to commit to his age-31 season and beyond some five years in advance? That's not sound thinking from a baseball perspective, given the fragile nature of pitchers.
Not So Big Red Machine
Where do you see Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips going to in trades?
I don't think Phillips is going to be traded. If he wouldn't approve a deal to a winning club managed by Dusty Baker, whom he knows very well from Baker's Cincinnati days, to which team would he approve a deal? No one's extending Phillips into 2018 to facilitate that trade.
Alex Gordon to Padres 3/48?
If Gordon were going to settle for 3/48, he'd just go back to Kansas City. I still think he'll make almost double that amount eventually, though I'm not as firmly in the "$100MM for Gordon" camp as I once was.
Cespedes or Parra for the angels?
At this point, seems like that's only plausible if they move CJ Wilson first. Because Arte Moreno still seems really adamant about avoiding the luxury tax threshold.
Wait. Wouldn't the D-backs lose their compensatory A pick (37th overall) instead of their second-round pick (51st overall) if they signed Howie Kenrick/
They would, yeah. Did the original question I answered say "second round"? I read it as "second pick" (meaning the Comp pick), but a lot of these are kind of a blur to me. Sorry for any confusion. My point regarding the bizarre nature of Stewart's comments was in reference to his refusal to part with that pick -- at this point, why not? They've come too far to draw a hard line, in my eyes.
Dixon Machado and Moya for Matt Moore?
Not enough going to Tampa Bay.
Does CJ Cron and Santiago start a conversation for Cargo?
I don't think so, no. Santiago has only two years remaining and Cron is a not-great defender that can't be hidden at DH in the NL.
Could you beat any MLB player in a foot race
Is Bengie Molina still playing?
I'm sure there's one or two old catchers or DHs or chunky pitchers, haha. I used to be pretty fast and ran track/cross country in high school and college, but it's been a decade since I ran competitively, so who knows?
Which minor leaguer has the best baseball name in your opinion?
Buck Farmer, Joey Pankake, Skye Bolt
Watch an hour of the bachelor or High Heat?
Oh my god this is my nightmare
Can draft picks be traded in baseball?
Competitive Balance draft picks can be, yes. But other picks aren't able to be moved. Charlie Wilmoth wrote about the value of Comp Balance picks for us awhile back:
Tim LIncecum to the Braves 2.yr 15.5 yes or no?
If anyone offered Lincecum two years and $15MM, I have to imagine he'd take that in a heartbeat. But I can't see him getting more than a year guaranteed.
Which signing was the worst in your opinion thus far?
Not a fan of the O'Day, Soria and Madson commitments -- too much over too many years for relievers, especially one of Madson's age. But, as excited as it made D-backs fans, the Greinke signing is the ugliest one when looking at the long-term. It's way too much money -- total and annually -- and could really be a killer for that franchise. However, Arizona is very clearly looking in the next 1-3 years and not considering the future much, so if they have three deep playoff runs or something with Greinke and Miller, I doubt they care how Zack's deal ends. Too much risk there for my liking, though.
Ken Griffey Jr. is an unanimous Hall of Famer right?
Should be but he won't be. Some BBWAA members are just off their rockers.
What do I have to be a writer for MLBTR?
Apply the next time we do a post saying "MLBTR Seeking Writing Help." You'll be one of many, many applicants (probably a couple thousand), but that's how we've brought on literally every single writer who is with MLBTR, PFR and Hoops Rumors since I can remember.
Follow up - If Cespedes market does crash - are the Mets back in?
It would need to crash in a huge way. I don't see the price dropping to the point where the Mets are in. His market isn't going to go below $100MM, for instance. At a certain point, if the asking price drops enough, a team that doesn't even need him will just sign him and make room for him because they consider it to be a good value.
Lincecum did pretty well when he pitched in a late inning situation a few years back. Any chance he works towards being a closer.
I would really like to see him in a short relief role, possibly as a closer. He probably won't do it yet, but Dave Cameron wrote an awesome piece about that on Fangraphs within the past year:
Who was the last MLBer you met and how did it go?
I guess technically Wade LeBlanc since we corresponded to get him on the MLBTR Podcast. He was great. Cool guy, very nice, very insightful. He was a great guest:
Do you red Sox trying to sign a fister type on 1 yr deal.
I get the thinking with Dombrowski connection but the rotation seems pretty full there. I think he'll go somewhere that gives him a better spot in the rotation. Plus, the AL East isn't a great spot to rebuild value.
Why most of the pictures of players used on this site and MLB official site are taken at the Trop?
If we have a large number of pictures of players playing at the Trop, that's pure happenstance. USA Today Sports Images is our image provider, but truth be told, there's not a lot that goes into the selection process when trying to grab an image. I usually look for one that has a reasonably clear view of the guy's face.
Carson Fulmer and Adam Eaton for Kyle Schwarber?
I wouldn't even do that if I were Chicago. Adam Eaton is so insanely valuable with six years and $41MM remaining on his deal. The surplus value there is incredible, and adding in Fulmer only makes it worse. I know people love Schwarber's bat, but Eaton is so underrated.