MLBTR Chat with Steve Adams 1-19-16
One high-profile corner outfielder down, one to go. Let's chat about baseball and other things.
Do you see marlins adding cespedes?
Nah -- I believe that they're interested on a short-term deal, but I can't envision them going near or exceeding the Upton deal, and I still expect Cespedes to do just that.
Was Upton a good sign for tigers
I like the contract from a value standpoint. Of all the free agent bats, Upton's age made him one of the safest plays. Detroit's buying two years of his prime and allowing him to walk away, which he'll almost assuredly do if he stays healthy. They got him for Shin-Soo Choo money despite the fact that Upton is more than two years younger than Choo was when he signed. It's a solid deal, in a vacuum, but it comes with other considerations (luxury tax penalties) and a boatload of risk if he does get injured in 2017 or something. Detroit's long-term payroll is already nightmarish, so they really can't afford for it to go wrong. Mike Ilitch doesn't seem to care about that though.
Does Tyson Ross spend the entire 2016 season in San Diego?
It's partially dependent on how well the Padres play as a collective unit. If they're contending, absolutely, of course -- even if they're just on the fringes of the Wild Card race. If they're way out of it, Preller will I'm sure listen to offers, as he did with virtually everyone in 2015. He's shown that he doesn't feel pressured to make moves, however, and I wouldn't expect him to part with Ross for anything short of a king's ransom. My guess is he's a Padre at the end of 2016 whether the team is good or not.
What kind of contract is Cespedes looking at right now?
I still think he'll clear 6/130.
Hi Steve, is Terry Ryan on vacation or did he get kidnapped by aliens?
Twins are waiting out the relief market but will probably make some kind of trade for a lefty reliever before Opening Day. If Neal Cotts falls to them at something like $1-2MM for the 2016 season, maybe they'll do that, But I'd expect Abad in the bullpen plus one more lefty arm that's not yet in the org, and aside from that they'll bank on their youth stepping up as Sano and Rosario did in 2015. Still think they're a great landing spot for Ian Desmond on some form of pillow contract, but that doesn't seem realistic.
Where do you see Doug Fister signing?
Somewhere that ends up regretting it. Honestly, if he were looking for 1/10, I guess I can see rolling the dice, but I wouldn't go near him around 2/22 with his fastball sitting at 86mph in a 2015 season that saw him hit the DL with a flexor injury. If I'm guessing teams, I'll take Baltimore, though there's admittedly not a huge amount of confidence in that pick at this juncture.
Could I pull off Desmond AND Fowler to fill the remaing holes in the lineup?
On paper it makes sense, but I don't envision the Sox punting two draft picks at this stage. If both guys were going to take disappointing contracts, maybe, but I don't find that likely. Sox are the best fit on the board for Desmond at this point, though.
Would Austin Jackson be a fit in Baltimore? Can he play RF?
Jackson still plays a good center field, so no reason he couldn't play right field. I like the fit well enough, though at this point I say go for broke and sign Cespedes. But, it's not my money. (And I don't consider Cespedes to Baltimore very likely)
how do you rate Freddie freeman
Well above-average first baseman that seems to enjoy him some hugs. One of the better first basemen in the NL.
6/130 rules out whitesox. Garcia+ what gets them which rockies outfielder
Garcia isn't a starting point for anything of much value. He's been terrible every step of the way in the Majors -- marginal bat with terrible defense. Plus, Rockies already have four starting-caliber outfielders, which is the reason most expect a trade of one. If the Sox move for one, it'll be in exchange for young and/or controllable pitching. Avi might be a throw-in, but not the centerpiece.
Dodgers add Joe Blanton to their bullpen. One year, $4MM per Ken Rosenthal. Love that signing. Blanton was very quietly an absolute monster in the Royals/Pirates' bullpens last year.
Do the Braves do anything major?
I doubt it. They've already done everything major that they plan to do for awhile They can talk about Cespedes and Upton all they want, but it seems to me that's largely in an effort to change the "tanking' narrative, with which they've clearly taken great umbrage.
Would Pedro Alvarez still make sense for BAL even after the Davis signing?
Didn't make a ton of sense to be even beforehand, though he's a useful-ish platoon DH, I guess. Let Davis and Trumbo cycle between DH and 1B, I say... no real reason for Alvarez to go there unless it's as a bench bat, and Boras is probably still hoping to get a more pronounced role than that.
Explain to me why this can't work for everyone...Brewers trade Segura to LAA for CJ Wilson and Taylor Ward. Brewers get catcher of future to help with Lucroy trade and are able to fit CJ's contract in their budget. LA gets Segura to play 2nd base next to Simmons and frees money to sign Cespedes.
I don't know why the Angels, or any other team, would want to hand Segura a starting role, personally. Outside of two months in 2013, he's just never been good. I suppose it makes some sense, on paper, as a salary dump, but even shedding Wilson might not be enough to keep them from the luxury tax with Cespedes on board. WIlson's AAV is $15.5MM, meaning that getting rid of him in exchange for Segura will free up something $12-13MM in terms of luxury tax considerations. The Angels are about $5MM from the lux tax barrier, and they're not getting Cespedes for an annual value of $17-18MM anyway, so they'd still have to go over to add him.
Trying this again. Padres bullpen projects to be made up of MILB guys. Can you see a piece or two shoring it up. Or will it remain on rebuild/tank mode trajectory? Thanks.
They'll probably finish up a deal with Rodney eventually, adding him to Quackenbush, Vincent and Pomeranz, plus Villanueva in a long role. That's not exactly a group of MiLB guys, even if it's not a long list of household names either. I can see them adding Rodney and one more piece though, yeah. I do agree it's a fairly underwhelming group, though I love Quackenbush (and not just for his 80-grade name).
You buying it when mozeliak says he "likes what they have". If he did why pursue heyward and price?
Yeah I do buy it. Heyward and Price are the type of guys that are an improvement on virtually any team's roster without much debate. STL considered them special exceptions, it seems. I wouldn't entirely rule out a move, but I'm not expecting them to do anything significant at this point. Others in the media will disagree -- I think Joel Sherman said yesterday on Twitter that he feels the Cards are a sleeper to do something big yet.
Garcia snd adams for cargo. Who hangs up first?
Truthfully not sure if this is referencing Jaime Garcia and Matt Adams (Cardinals) or Avi Garcia and Spencer Adams (White Sox), but either way I don't think the Rockies jump.
Likelihood that Ramos keeps closer role role in Miami?
He was genuinely awesome in 2015. I don't see any reason, barring an injury, to forecast that he'd lose the role. If he's out for six weeks or something and Carter Capps steps up into that role, though, I can see Capps performing too well to lose the gig.
Do the Giants do anything Minor/Majoor
They've already added Shark, Cueto and Span this offseason -- I'm not expecting anything else over the top, though I do think they're still a fit for Cespedes on paper.
Did I make a mistake rejecting the qualifying offer?
Not from where I sit. If he wanted 1/16 he could probably get it tomorrow. That money will still be there for him in February. Take your shot at the big contract. I think he'll still get paid.
Am I in a coma or what?
Yeah I mean all he's done so far is trade for Todd Frazier and Brett Lawrie. No real improvements there or anything. (Yes, that's sarcasm, before I get the inevitable comments taking that reply seriously.)
Cespedes to the Blue Jays?
Money for that isn't in their budget.
Does Steve Pearce make sense for the Pirates? They need some depth at middle infield and he has versatility to play outfield and first?
I know Pearce played some second base last year, but I wouldn't really consider him middle infield depth. He'd be redundant on the Pittsburgh roster, I think, with Morse serving as the RH component of the 1B platoon already and two RH starters in the outfield. I suppose he makes sense as a platoon-mate for Polanco, but I wouldn't resign myself to platooning him just yet if I were the Pirates, and if I'm Pearce, I want more than a platoon OF role anyway after hitting 35 HR in my past 600-700 MLB PAs.
What makes the Ian Kennedy move a wise decision?
I don't think it was a wise one. I liked Kennedy at something like 4/48, but 5/70 with an opt-out is a huge score for Boras.
I think Kennedy got a bad rap with the, in my opinion, completely bizarre and misguided "he should accept the QO" narrative, but I never pictured a contract like this for him.
Who are some rookie players to look forward to this year?
A full season of Corey Seager will be fun, and a mostly full season of Byron Buxton will be as well. Orlando Arcia and JP Crawford come to mind as well, though both probably start the year in the Minors.
did I make a mistake on the Qo too?
Again, I don't think so.
Explain to me how a team will beat the yankees this year, I see no weaknesses in their team
You see zero weaknesses in a rotation of Masahiro Tanaka (elbow), Michael Pineda (shoulder), Luis Severino, Nathan Eovaldi and some combo of CC Sabathia/Ivan Nova? Or a declining Chase Headley at third base and question marks in the OF in the form of a 39-year-old Beltran and a pair of 30-something OFs that struggled through injuries all year in Ellsbury/Gardner? Yankees could be a good team but there's an enormous amount that could go wrong, too.
Will the Royals acquire a RF'er or stick with Orlando/Dyson?
I think they should look for a better RH platoon bat than Paulo Orlando. Ryan Raburn and Drew Stubbs come to mind. I wouldn't mind them just signing Austin Jackson as their everyday RF, either, pushing Dyson back into fourth OF territory. (Though I do think Dyson can provide enough value on the bases and in the field to justify the lion's share of a platoon)
I refuse to be outdone by Illitch! I'm the most meddling owner and will go out and sign cespedes to prove it
Every report out of Anaheim (and from national reporters speaking to Anaheim officials) says otherwise.
Are Rogers the worst owners in MLB?
Blue Jays payroll this season is going to be north of $130MM. Again.
Wily Peralta and Jean Segura for Blackmon and a prospect?
If I'm Colorado I wouldn't trade Blackmon alone for that pairing, let alone Blackmon and a prospect.
Where does Cleveland fit in now with these changes in the central?
Still firmly in the mix as far as I'm concerned. It's easy to say they've fallen behind, especially with the Upton signing providing a recency bias of sorts, but Kluber-Carrasco-Salazar-Bauer-Tomlin-Anderson is a strong group of rotation pieces, and they'll have a full season of Lindor in 2016 as well. Being without Brantley for the early portion of the season hurts, for sure, but they're still a contender on paper.
Where does David Freese finally land?
At this point, I have no earthly idea. It looks like he should've accepted whatever it was the Angels were offering a couple months back. He makes a little sense for the Padres.
I have to cut this short. Apologies. Will try to stick around extra next week. Thanks for chatting!