MLBTR Chat with Steve Adams 1-12-16
Ahoy. (Apparently there's some kind of pirate/nautical vibe to this chat now -- let's roll with it.) Let's get started!
Do you think the jays make another trade or sign another pitcher?
Based on conversations I've had, Toronto isn't going to be spending at a high level. I think the Revere/Storen swap was the biggest bullpen move they have left, and I don't think they're going to make a big splash on the trade front at this point. Looking more at minor league deals and maybe a cheap MLB bullpen signing or something.
With the Parra deal, which Rockies OF gets moved and where?
Blackmon or Dickerson makes a ton of sense for the Angels. I'd bet on Blackmon since he has less control and his value is closer to its peak than that of Dickerson. They'd be selling a little low on Corey coming off that injury-riddled season. CarGo makes a lot of sense in Baltimore, though the O's seem more focused on Davis.
Cespedes to white sox before soxfest?
Can't see the ChiSox ponying up for him at this point, and I've been led to believe that their interest in Cespedes has been somewhat overstated.
Will MLB ever implement a salary cap?
Not unless the MLBPA vanishes into thin air. And realistically, why should they? I'm baffled by the constant claims that inflating salaries are somehow ruining MLB. As if owners would magically lower ticket prices if they didn't have to pay players so much. Ticket prices are the way they are because the consumer market has shown a willingness to pay at that level. Limiting player salaries would almost certainly just redirect that money from the players into the owners' pockets.
Is cespedes going take 1 year deal.
I'd be stunned unless it was something like 3/80 with an opt-out after year one. And even that is borderline impossible for me to envision.
Do you think it makes sense for the jays to trade dickey and sign a pitcher like gallardo or Kennedy?
The return on Dickey wouldn't be anything that great, and both of the pitchers you described will have similar 2016 salaries but with 2-3 more years at a comparable rate tacked on. Doesn't make much sense to me, and Kennedy of all pitchers shouldn't be pitching in Toronto, given his home run issues.
Could a Kemp/Ross to Chicago for Danks/Anderson & couple other prospects make sense?
The White Sox to take on Matt Kemp, surrender Tim Anderson AND other prospects? No way.
Starting a Franchise, would you take Trout, Griffey, Harper, Kershaw, or Stanton
Trout is off to the best start we've seen maybe ever, so I'd have to go him, followed by Griffey and then Harper, with the latter choice being tougher. Griffey's first four years were slightly better than those of Harper, even if Harper's age-22 season alone was better than any of Grffey's first four.
In Beane We Trust
Cliff Lee 1 year $8M deal in Oakland. Vesting option for 2017 for $12M. Sound realistic?
They already gambled pretty heavily (for Oakland) on Hill and Alvarez. Plus, if Lee wants a "perfect" fit or whatever his agent's term was, I'd have to imagine a more clear-cut contender than Oakland would be his preference. Not on a knock on the A's, they're just not really any sort of lock to make the postseason.
Is Ian Desmond a fit for the Twins?
I think it makes sense, but they seem pretty set on giving Eduardo Escobar a shot at the everyday gig there, and they have other options throughout the organization as well (Jorge Polanco, Danny Santana).
BRAVES need a power hitter
Maybe if they were making any real effort to contend in 2016, but that's pretty clearly not the case, so I wouldn't hold your breath on that front.
Does Chris Davis have any suitors aside from Baltimore?
I'm sure he does. A year ago everyone was saying there was no market for Max Scherzer, and he got $210MM (albeit with deferrals) from Washington on Jan. 22.
With the signing of Sierra, does it make it easier for the Dodgers to trade for a real 2?
Sierra's signing doesn't really have all that much of an impact on their trade efforts in my view. Sure it's one more talented arm in their system, but I doubt LA was holding off on making a move until they got one more arm in the mix. At this point, with Maeda and Kazmir both on board, I don't know that I'm really banking on that blockbuster that Dodgers fans seem to be hoping for.
What do you think of the Cardinals signing Seung Hwan Oh?
Not much money and a short commitment, so no reason to knock it too much. I've had a couple scouts tell me that Oh is mostly fastball with an average slider and no real third pitch (below average curve and a two-seamer that isn't too exciting but has a bit of movement). From what I've been told, he's a decent middle reliever but probably not the dominant high-leverage arm he was overseas. Even if that's the case, a $5MM guarantee or so isn't a crazy price, especially since there's at least the chance that his game carries over a bit more than expected.
Does Daniel Hudson have any more life as a starter?
Believe he said he wants to try to start in Spring Training this season, but he was good out of the 'pen last year and throwing upper 90s... I say keep in short relief. If he hones his control a bit he could eventually get a pretty lucrative ninth-inning gig somewhere.
Is Ian Desmond a fit for the Mets?
They already signed Asdrubal Cabrera and traded for Neil Walker. There's no real place for Desmond to play there unless you want to trade Tejada and/or Flores and make Asdrubal a $9MM utility man, which I doubt any team -- especially the Mets -- would do.
Will the Twins trade Plouffe
At this point I'll be surprised if he's not their Opening Day third baseman. Maybe during the season or maybe next winter, but right now it's looking like Park DH, Mauer 1B, Plouffe 3B, Sano and Rosario on the outfield corners.
Who's better long term Iglesias/Sierra?
If you're asking about Raisel Iglesias, give me the guy who has already had some success in the Majors. I'm pretty high on Iglesias in general.
If the A's are not a contending team, why not trade Gray and or reddick?
I didn't say they won't contend, I said they're not a lock to do so. The AL West has a lot of really good teams and seems to be fairly wide open. I'd imagine they'll be willing to trade Reddick in July but want to see how the first half goes. Gray isn't even arb-eligible yet and has four more years of control. Contending or not, it makes sense to hang onto him.
The Pirates have been picking up relievers many relievers. Feliz, Bard, Haley, Nicasio. Is this the build up to a Mark Melancon deal? Who would trade for Melancon and what could the Bucs get in return?
More just about adding depth. Bard is a long shot to ever pitch in then Majors for them, and the same can probably be said of Haley. Pirates lost Soria, Bastardo and Blanton this offseason -- they needed some new, affordable arms. Hence Nicasio and Feliz.
Texas trades Shin-soo Choo for Marcel Ozuna and Mike Dunn
Didn't even mean to publish this one, but... no. May as well try to trade Hamilton for Harper while they're at it. Neither's happening.
Prefer Mr. Todd chats to yours, your just to bias on which team questions you anserw. Sorry but will continue to hope for your development.
CAUGHT ME. Oozing with bias. Have fun on Thursdays, I guess?
Any interest between Red Sox and Antonio Bastardo?
I don't expect the Red Sox to make any more significant additions, but I guess if Bastardo's price drops to two years, they could outbid the rest of the field in terms of annual value. Think there are likelier destinations for him, though at this point three years is getting tough to envision.
After years of Amaro, the Phillies "phinally" look like they're on the right track as an organization. Any chance they take a gamble and sign Cespedes or Upton?
Firstly, Amaro did well when he finally conceded and rebuilt. Klentak inherited a nice situation due largely to Amaro and some of the since departed/reassigned execs from that regime.
But I just don't see Philly jumping into that mix. If the contract goes south, they've just undone a great deal of the rebuilding work that already took place. And, I can't see it getting to the point where a rebuilding club simply can't pass up the price, since a contender would enter the fray before that point. It's not impossible, but I'd be stunned to see Philadelphia sign either.
2016 projections have the Twins losing 84 games, do you take the over or under?
Under. I like them for another winning season assuming Buxton and Berrios get decent looks in the Majors.
The Tigers still need a leftfielder, What about Dexter Fowler. He's a switch hitter and has shown some pop. Your thoughts..
I like Fowler as a fit there. I'm not a big Anthony Gose or Cameron Maybin fan, so signing an upgrade over either one makes some sense to me. I'd like Fowler better in a corner spot as well (though metrics weren't keen on Gose/Maybin in CF last year either).
If you had to pick one of Jonathan Lucroy, Jean Segura, or Khris Davis, which would you guess won't be on the Brewers Opening Day roster? Who will he be playing for?
It's just not a good time to sell Lucroy since his value is down a bit after the concussions last season. Segura's value is probably at an all-time low as well, so Davis makes the most sense. Would clear some ABs for Domingo Santana.
Let's say you are the NYY GM... Would you consider making Chapman a starter again?
He'd be pitching the ninth inning even if Hal Steinbrenner lost his mind and gave me Brian Cashman's job. (And at that point, Chapman's role would be far from the biggest story in New York, ha.)
Do you see the royals redoing Salvador Perez contract?
Makes no sense to me. You have him controlled dirt cheap through 2019, when he'll be entering his age-30 season and coming off a lengthy stretch as the most overworked catcher in MLB. His bat has already declined. Why take on that risk this far in advance?
Does Kyle Seager break out to an MVP type season in 2016?
I don't think he's ever going to be an MVP, but Seager's one of the more underrated third basemen in the game, and I can see his numbers trending up a bit next year if he can maintain the reduced strikeout rate and get a minor BABIP rebound.
Under-the-radar signing you would recommend is....
Ryan Raburn to any club with a bunch of left-handed outfielders (hey there Rockies!). Guy kills left-handed pitching... I was surprised Cleveland bought out his option.
Speaking of under-the-radar signings, I dug the Kelly Johnson reunion in Atlanta.
Any interest between Giants and Tyler Clippard?
Clippard's market in general has been pretty quiet. Lots of red flags in his game last season and that arm has been worked hard over the years. Giants' enormous park makes for a good fit, but nothing more than speculation at this time.
Tropeano for Blackmon?
I think Rockies would ask for more.
Jose Fernandez for Micah Johnson, Frankie Montas, Grant Holmes, Zach Lee, and Walker Buehler?
Marlins reportedly asked for Seager, Urias, Pederson and two others, so that package isn't even in the neighborhood.
What is Tim Lincecum's market?
He still has to do some showcases before we get a good sense of it. I'd imagine virtually every team in the league will go watch him when he does host a workout.
Does carson Fulmer make is pro debut this season? Will he be better suited a starter or working out of the bullpen?
Late in 2016 I can see it. Sox will keep him in the rotation as long as they can -- doubt they'd have taken him there if they didn't think he could start -- but some scouts do say bullpen is his long-term fit.
Are the Cubs still looking at CF options?
No need to do so unless they move Soler for an arm. I fully believe they're content with Schwarber-Heyward-Soler in the outfield to open next season if no one comes along and offers an arm they love at a price they like. I don't think Heyward was signed with the intent of moving Soler and adding another CF piece.
So much for the Denard Span showcase. Did the Giants lose their minds?
Denard Span is a wildly underrated player when healthy, and $10MMish per season isn't really all that much of a gamble. I was a little surprised he got the third year with the surgery, but the Giants are clearly OK with where his medicals are. If Span is healthy for 75% of the contract it'll be a good deal.
What Starting Pitcher do you think the Kansas City Royals pick up?
Ian Kennedy, if I had to guess. Great relationship between Boras and KC, he should be in their price range, and as a fly-ball pitcher that has had homer problems in the past, KC's outfield defense and huge park make it a good fit for the player himself.
I like Kennedy more than most, so if they get him for 3-4 years at $11-13MM per season, that's a fine deal to me. Guy is durable, misses bats and has solid control. I thought it was an easy call to reject the QO for him (though I said the same about Wieters).
Why did the Rockies sign Parra? They already have a lot of outfielders.
Because no sane pitcher will ever sign in Colorado, so the only way they're getting arms is by drafting/developing them or trading bats to get them. They can now do the latter.
The Cubs have gone all offseason without addressing their self-declared need of rotation help. Will that change in the next few weeks?
John Lackey disagrees with your premise.
Who will be playing RF in KC next year?
I'd bet on Jarrod Dyson, maybe with some form of platoon partner that's a better hitter than Paulo Orlando (Raburn, anyone?)
What do you have against the Pirates?
Ahhhh this week it's the Pirates as the team that I hate. I suppose there are new people in here every week so I should just constantly send reminders that I get upwards of 2000 questions per week even during the slower times of the offseason/season. There's no way to get to every question I get, and sometimes there just aren't a lot of questions about a certain team. I've already answered at least one Pirates question prior to this, but not addressing more does nothing to indicate that I have some bizarre agenda against them, and insinuating bias over failing to take more than 1-2 Bucs questions in a 60-minute chat is bizarre.
Isn't Raburn kinda... one-dimensional? And doesn't that dimension have a habit of disappearing for long stretches of time?
He's one-dimensional in the sense that he mauls lefties and does little else well, but that keeps his price low and allows his skill-set to be maximized in a very clear and easy manner.
I have to let you go, wish you the best in your future endeavors.
If I can't stay on in my current capacity, can I come back as an editor? You could use one, considering you misspelled your last name.
Hector Santiago and Nick Tropeano for Blackmon and LeMahieu...who says no?
Arms with more control make more sense for the Rockies. Tropeano fits that bill, but Santiago is a free agent in two years.
Which pitcher has better 2016 stats, Severino, Tanaka or Pineda?
Tanaka has come closest to doing it over a full season, so I'd vote him. I know Yankees fans love Severino and laugh at those who said he's bullpen-bound, but the reason for that belief is that some scouts don't think his arm will hold up as a starter. I'd need to see more than 60-80 innings to proclaim him the best of the bunch.
What about Tyler Wilson and Mike Wright from the O's for Blackmon?
Neither is all that well regarded. Rox could easily find better offers.
I have to wrap this up for the week -- feel free to ask further questions on Twitter (@Adams_Steve), and you can join Jeff for his Thursday afternoon chat as well (and bug him on Twitter: @JA_Todd). Thanks!