MLBTR Chat with Jeff Todd 2-5-16
Sorry I couldn't chat at the usual time yesterday - had some scheduling matters that interfered. But the chat is back and better than ever today!
(Okay, okay, it is actually the same as ever, for better or worse.)
Ask some questions and we'll get rolling in a bit.
Conforto stats at year end
I'm not going to predict anything specific, of course, but I think it's worth having reasonable expectations. He was great, but let's not forget that he was promoted fairly aggressively and many young hitters have to go through a re-adjustment phase once MLB pitchers figure out how to attack them.
I do think the Cespedes pursuit was in part a recognition that it was a big ask for him to become an everyday guy for a contender. And that's no knock on him.
Seems that way. It's not really clear where they'd go with the remaining free agents, and I'm not sure there are any obvious, major trades still to come. Never say never, but they aren't one of the teams I'm watching with baited breath.
Sox make anymore moves this offseason?
They've all but pinky swore they are done.
Who is the best candidate for Phillies to eat entire contract and get back a kinda good prospect? I keep looking at a Twins pitcher (Nolasco/Santana) and feel there should be a match.
The problem with this strategy is that it requires a willing prospect seller. I don't really think the Twins are that right now, b/c their payroll is manageable even if there is bad $ on the books. Honestly, I'm not sure there are a lot of obvious situations for that kind of move right now, though I'm sure Klentak and co. will be involved if an opportunity arises.
With the recent failures, how would you grade the White Sox' offseason?
What failures? Not overspending on high-priced veterans? Eh, let's wait and see where it ends up before issuing judgment. Remember, the Orioles snagged Cruz and Ubaldo late in the winter a few years back. There are big names still available and solid platoon options as well. And I do like the Frazier and Lawrie additions.
The Pirates can't possibly be done...can they? How do they replace the production from Walker and Alvarez?
I'm not going to give a sarcastic answer involving Alvarez's glove, but I suspect many Bucs fans would. Pedro isn't a hard guy to replace, despite the dingers.
As for Walker, he's more of a durable presence than some kind of middle of the order stud. They are probably hoping to hang in there while Kang gets back to full health. Could still see a veteran, cheap FA add for some 2B/3B type depth.
Loney seems expendable where will he be opening day
He's more than expendable, he's a guy they are probably actively looking to shed. I feel like he or Jennings look like candidates to be moved, given the other options in the corner OF/1B/DH mix, with TB possibly hoping to shave off enough salary to land a Desmond or Clippard.
As for where on Loney ... not a lot of clear fits. Maybe the Rockies would take on a few mil? Obviously an injury could open up a need somewhere and make him more appealing.
How bout a tyler clippard update
Check the site! One was just posted.
Lazarito --- where does he sign? Think he's willing to wait until after J2?
Fact that it is now being suggested that he's willing to do so indicates he isn't getting runaway interest from the teams that have already blown their pool this year. But there's sill no clear indication of where he could be heading, and it's really impossible to predict with such a young player absent some insider info which I lack.
Is Carlos Gonzalez a good fit for Boston? Say, Rusney Castillo (owed $56.5M/5) + Brian Johnson/Henry Owens and a ML arm?
CarGo is off the market for now, that seems clear with Dickerson being traded. And I think they were looking for quite a different package than that anyway -- don't see COL really wanting to roll the dice on Castillo at his remaining price tag.
Would you trade Lucroy now or wait to see if he can recoup more value?
I'd decide on my price now, let teams keep coming at me with offers, and wait if it isn't met. A spring injury or a desperate owner could easily make for a huge shift in the market. If OD is approaching and he's still in MIL, I might consider backing down the ask, but still no urgency IMO.
What are the chances that the Padres sign both Lazarito and Shohei Otani since they hosted their scout workouts at Padre Facilities?
Doesn't suggest anything about SDP chances.
Are the Indians waiting for Fowler's price to drop so they can swoop him up to patrol CF?
Plausible scenario, yeah. They signed Bourn and Swisher a few years back when their markets fell. And look how well that turned out!
There has got to be resolution to Fowler/Desmond soon right? As a White Sox fan, do you see us getting one? Which? And how remote is my dream scenario of both.
If they sign one, and give up the pick, then why not grab the other if the price is right? Not saying it'll happen, but that would spread the burn of the draft comp.
Who do you see as having more fantasy value to the twins five 3 years down the road, Sano or Buxton?
MLB teams receive fantasy value from players? This is an interesting development!
it's apparent Dexter Fowler should
have taken the qualifying offer
but where does he end up
See, that's not the case at all. For one thing, he could still beat it. For another, it's worth taking some downside risk to have the shot at the big contract that you worked so hard for.
So what if he signs for 1/$12MM? I'd be willing to risk the difference between that and the QO to have a crack at 4/64 or whatever. Not to mention getting to choose your new team.
Alex Rios to the Orioles? Why not take a chance on him in RF?
I mean, knock yourself out, but he was pretty bad last year and is really getting on in years. Think they are still looking for more after a winter in which they have spent big on keeping their major FAs.
jay bruce trade yes or no and what team and kind of return
Looking unlikely, probably because the kind of return would be "meh." I think they are better off keeping him around and hoping he rakes in the first half and turns himself into a nice deadline piece.
Markakis make sense to White Sox over Ethier?
I never understood the Markakis signing and still kind of don't like the value on his deal. I'd probably rather take a shot on Ethier with a shorter commitment, myself.
Plus, let's be honest, who is more likely to cover some salary to get a deal done - LAD or ATL?
why aren't the Yankees spending money anymore. Their 3 major acquisitions were all via trade. They could still spend now and pursue Harper in 2018. Very concerning
You could just pretend that they signed those players instead of trading for them. They did take on big league money in those deals.
Do you see MLB creating a rule where MLB teams would be required to interview women for Exec/Leadership roles, similar to what the NFL announced yesterday? Kim Ng comes to mind as someone who should have received a GM job by now.
I don't really know anything about Kim Ng other than what people say about her, which is that she is good.
I'm not really convinced that kind of rule would do much good, but I'd be willing to listen to arguments in favor. But the fact that the NFL did it is no reason to follow -- that entity is all about window dressing and appeasement.
How accurate do you believe advanced statistics are, such as WAR, at truly quantifying and comparing players of different styles, and throughout different eras of the game? Are there any that you like best in this regard?
You have to distinguish between advanced metrics that look beneath pure results statistics (runs, batting average, etc) and WAR, which could in theory be based on traditional stats alone with adjustments for different eras.
As for the former group of stats, many of them are incredibly useful and telling. I think it's hard to dispute that, honestly.
As for WAR, it is a rough guide to value that allows you to compare generally amongst players at any given time or over time. It's hardly a perfectly precise figure, though, and some people do take it too far in how they use it. WAR is also always going to change and develop as new info is learned.
Is the proliferation of opt-outs we have seen this offseason, at least in part, because of the uncertainty of the next CBA?
I don't really think so. In my view, it's a sort of combination of "wow did you see how that worked out for Greinke?!" (agent/player) and "dang, is there any way we can land this guy without just promising more money?" (team).
An Orioles blogger wrote this morning that the Orioles need to trade with the Dodgers for Ethier and Alex Wood. . . With a depleted farm system, do you so see that as possible?
Not the worst idea. O's definitely have the pieces to make it work if they want to and Dodgers are willing. LAD loves them some injury/upside arms, just saying!
Who do you like in the Bowl of Super? Broncos or Panthers?
So, I used to be a football fan and love the game. But I have a hard time stomaching the NFL and am sickened by the concussion thing so much that I've abandoned it altogether.
But I still love rugby and might try to go skiing this Sunday since all of Colorado will be in front of a TV set.
Not that OJ
Does Uribe to the Pirates make sense on short contract?
Possibly, yeah. Doubt they promise more than one year to a guy like that.
whats a realistic haul for hector Santiago? Angels need to compete this year, but need to stock farm with some talent. Any chance Phillies, Marlins or Brewers match up.
Realistically? Something you wouldn't describe as a "haul."
I could see the Phils or Brewers having interest - they have grabbed some generally similar pitchers of late, actually - but they aren't going to do any farm replenishing for LAA in a trade.
Is being a clubhouse cancer really the ONLY reason nobody wants me?
There are other reasons not to shower him with money, but he'd have a ton of interest if his reputation wasn't so bad.
Any news on David Freese?
I've seen that the Yankees are the only team not to sign a free agent, but I haven't seen the Reds sign any major league contract. Who have they signed?
They signed a minor league FA to a major league deal (gave him a 40-man spot). Can't even recall who it was off the top of my head, if that's any indication of how excited you should be by the move.
Can I crack the Nationals' rotation?
Yeah I'd go so far as to say he'd get a spot if he shows up well this spring. Like, he may not need to climb past anyone on the depth chart. If he goes out there and sputters, you always have the other options around, but if he can hold down some innings then why not let him do it til his arm falls off?
Bryce Harper for Mike Trout. Who hangs up first?
Mike Trout is far more valuable because he's a better player (at least right now) and has far more control. His extension was masterful for the Angels.
Not that OJ
If J. Rollins agreed to play second, what type of contract (money/years) would be expected for his quality and age?
I'm surprised Trevor Plouffe wasn't traded this offseason. Do you see him being traded at some point to move Sano back to 3rd?
Not only that, Terry Ryan said they never even were willing to talk about trading him. So, make of that what you will, but it makes me wonder if they really want to trust Sano there. And if he's playing OF this year, it isn't as if he'll have a chance to grow and prove his worth at the hot corner in the interim.
Is there a Rugby World Championship? If so, is it on TV?
There's a world cup every four years, as in soccer. You generally would need to go to your local rugby-friendly pub to watch, but that makes it much more entertaining anyway.
Unfortunately, you'll be waiting for 2019 for the next one. But I'm fired up to be going to a Six Nations match or two in the UK in a few weeks!
Are there any real fits for Desmond left?
Absolutely, there are teams that would still plug him right in as their starting SS. Question is how long and large a commitment he can now get to make that happen. The infusion of young SS talent into the league is hurting a lot, I think, b/c many of the teams with near-term needs don't want to be locked in for too long.
Any chatter of rockies trading Arenado?
jays need to trade ee/jb, if they fails to extend them
World's Angriest Man
Will Morneau need to sign a minor league deal?
do you think the mets make anymore moves
Brother, can it please be stated that WAR is an overhyped statistic? It is no doubt a useful stat for creating a very generic value for a players overall capabilities, but shouldn't be relied upon as a definitive talent evaluator or accolade determiner.
I agree with this to a large extent, though I would say that the people who invented and continue to tweak the statistic largely use it correctly. It can be hard to see that, when folks at Fangraphs are talking about $/WAR and such, but they aren't doing that to suggest that a given player's specific value is perfectly encapsulated by what their prior seasons' accumulations of WAR are.
I particularly think that it isn't a great tool for awards. I mean, it's notable and worth considering, but I feel like you can go ahead and give credit to, say, Zack Greinke for his ridiculous ERA last year even if WAR (by virtue of whichever ERA estimator that version of WAR utilizes) feels he got a bit lucky.
can the Royals repeat ?
Yes, absolutely, but won't be my pick and you could reasonably say the same of at least, I don't know, 15-18 clubs? (Well, not that they can repeat, but that they can win it this year.)
Do you like the direction the brewers are going with their "retooling" process? Which prospects do you think has a high ceiling in their system?
Yeah, I do. And you have to throw some credit to Melvin for pulling off that Gomez/Fiers deal. Gave up some valuable MLB pieces, no doubt, but it looks like they really could hit with that package.
Is Tyler Flowers for real the answer at catcher for the Braves?
No, he's a temporary gap filler who is a legitimate MLB player.
In three years from now, are people mentioning my name with some of the other great young players like Mike Trout and Bryce Harper?
Not yet convinced he quite reaches that level, but it's certainly possible. Let's not forget that Trout and Harper could end up being something like Mantle and Mays. Long way to go to do that, but that's a tall ask for any player.
Why do you hate the St. Paul Saints?
No way man! They have sweet old unis and hats. For real, go check them out at Ebbets Field Flannels -- which is AWESOME.
I promise I have no promotional interest in EFF. Just love their stuff. Look at this! http://www.ebbets.com/product/St-Paul-Saints-195...