MLBTR Chat With Jeff Todd 12-31-15
Start asking some questions and we'll get rolling here shortly.
Are Vogelsong and Locke merely stop gaps for Taillon and Glasnow?
I'm not the most plugged in guy on Bucs prospects, but hard to imagine Taillon being relied upon this coming season. Maybe Glasnow is ready, but let's remember that this organization is going to make sure that he is and is also going to be very sensitive to service time.
So, to some extent, sure, they are. But it's also entirely possible that both will be in the rotation all year.
What's with these FA just sitting around??
There were a huge number of big players, and the pitching market went first. That's the main thing.
Then, I think, we are just seeing a stand-off at the top of the OF market. Who's going to blink first? Will one of the top guys take a somewhat less than ideal contract to make sure they aren't frozen out? Does some team decide to pay up to get the guy they like best?
Can the Nationals fair well in the 2016 season without making major moves in the back end of the bullpen, the outfield, or at the end of the rotation?
Yeah, I think so. There's still a ton of talent there.
What's interesting, though, is that despite quite a bit of activity already, it's still possible to imagine Rizzo swinging a handful of meaningful moves before the spring. Fun offseason in D.C.
Who are the White Sox getting in your mind?
They are in a nice spot to provide a soft landing for a number of free agent position players -- basically, all of the top guys remaining on the board. Hard to predict anyone in particular, as I think Hahn and co. are waiting for something to fall to them.
Why the weird chat time?
Weird schedule for New Year's Eve and this is when I happened to be taking over.
I'd have started earlier, but I was ice skating with my daughter. Trust me, you don't want me to tell her that you were responsible for interfering with that.
Who is left that would be a good fit for the Astros?
I think the Astros are another team that can act opportunistically, though unlike the White Sox I'm not as convinced they'll do anything significant. Doesn't seem like they are really interested in opening the payroll throttle completely.
What'll be interesting is to see whether they have any willingness to punt a draft pick to add a QO-bound guy.
Revere for Storen? Is that a fair trade for the Jays and Nationals?
I could see that, if the Nats don't do something else in terms of an OF. I mentioned Revere in the Nats offseason outlook post, and he makes sense as a platoon piece to go with Taylor.
This would essentially be a repeat of last year's Clippard-Escobar swap.
Any big plans to celebrate the new year?
Chat with you guys and watch for baseball transactions and rumors. Might crack a couple beers later tonight though!
(Actually, that's a good reminder ... need to ask my loving wife to make a run.)
Are the O's going to move forward without Davis, or are they going to wait too long and miss out on the rest of the players available?
I still see Baltimore as the best fit for Davis. They obviously have really significant interest and were willing to go way beyond the team's previous spending levels to sign him. Still not clear that any other club will beat that, though Boras is obviously still committed to trying.
Jeff is that you on the front page in the red helmet beginning your beard
Hmmm ... now that you mention it, I could probably pose for an image like that and look pretty darn close to that dude. But no.
If I were to be featured on the MLBTR home page -- and, now that this has been suggested, I will demand it -- I'd be in full catcher's gear.
TIME OUT. Maeda to Dodgers.
Okay, going to do my best to keep this chat going for a while but I will need to keep an eye on the post, too.
Random Twitter Guy Chris Meola (who actually did report the Stanton extension before anyone else, somehow) is saying Maeda went to the Dodgers. How long should I refresh my feed to see Rosenthal/Heyman confirm before I give up?
Is Scott Kazmir the biggest name the Dodgers will acquire this winter?
Is he a bigger name than Maeda?
Baxter Ryland Mayes
Will a team seriously consider giving ~$50M+ to Ian Desmond to play anything besides shortstop?
I don't get that whole utility thing, honestly. At least not for the first couple years of a deal. Why does his bat profile better in the corner outfield? And why roll the dice that he'll transition well when he's already an average SS despite the mental gaffes?
I'm stuck at work while others are gone. Please give me the cub's greatest weakness coming into the upcoming season.
I feel you. I'm at work, too.
I don't know that there is a real weakness, per se. You could probably say an impact pen arm and another quality outfielder would be nice. Miguel Montero isn't the most inspiring regular catcher. But those are relative soft spots.
Can you call another time out and say the Giants just signed Cespedes?
I don't know why, but I feel like Cespy has the greatest odds of signing a big, really late deal. He had such a big year but has a good bit of downside. Could see an owner saying "screw it" in, like, just before camp opens and opening up the wallet.
So, no, I don't foresee that happening during this chat, ha.
Should the A's might as well keep Butler. I can't imagine him having much value.
Yeah no choice at this point but to keep him and hope he bounces back.
I was confounded by the signing at the time.
Will the Marlins di anything to BETTER their team this off season?
An Ozuna trade could still come together -- his market move after some free agent developments, to some extent -- not that it would necessarily be more than a parallel move.
I still think they have something up their sleeves. Remember, they tried to get Chapman.
I know the Sox are shopping me. Where will I play in 2016?
No idea, but there are worse players to roll the dice on. I do think he'll end up on the chopping block, because they are more committed to Melky and can plug him at DH.
If ALR were a free agent right now, someone would probably throw 5 mil at him, so I think he would draw interest. (Obviously, CWS would eat cash.)
Give me a FA the Reds will sign..,then trade
We've seen Philip Humber and Nate schierholtz come back from japan, what other former American players might come back to a mlb team?
Lots of guys go back and forth all the time. I think a lot of players enjoy making some extra money and having the experience, but want to come home eventually -- even if they don't have the greatest chance at reviving their MLB careers.
So, really, anyone who goes over is a candidate to come back. And, increasingly, there's just a ton more interaction between the markets. Same for the KBO, of course.
It's really interesting, actually. I know that many players/agents are more and more alert to the chance to get their guys paid and possibly re-launch. Heck, teams even see the benefit b/c they often negotiate release fees for guys they control. (The Twins have been particularly active in this regard.)
I (we) have to have to buck up and pay Cespedes, don't I (we)?
I don't see that. Already stretched to get Iwakuma and have like 7 OFers under contract.
Unless you were thinking of the Angels, in which case -- that's a question for the owner.
Though Mr. Illtich is the "screw it" type owner you mentioned (and god are we thankful for it). It looks like Detroit is waiting for some of the initial asking prices to drop on these outfielders. They can't possibly be done in the OF (Gose/Maybin/Martinez) can they?
Yeah, Detroit seems a prime candidate to bang out a huge contract with one of these guys. The Angels could also potentially do it. Nationals as well, though I don't like the fit as well with this crop of premium guys (with Heyward off the board).
What's the best under the radar move so far this off-season?
I really liked the Mets' Niese-for-Walker trade. Totally expendable piece going for a nice short-term add in an area of need.
Could LaRoche make sense for the Astros until Reed is ready?
Sure, why not? Then again, they already declined to pay Chris Carter, what, five mil or so. Maybe they just didn't want to commit the cash then and would do so now, or would like the fit better with a LHB, but it could still come down to how much $$$ it would take.
WAS needs a CF and lead-off man. Your thoughts on a Gardner and Kaprilian for Giolito trade?
Like the idea of Gardner to the Nats. Don't see any scenario where such deal involves Giolito.
Will Alexei Rodriguez re-up with the White Sox as a bridge for Tim Anderson? Perhaps 2yr/$12M?
That's a reasonable scenario, though I'm guessing he keeps his last name as-is.
Hope he's bluffing
Is Arte Moreno indeed "probably out" on the big free agent OFs as he claimed earlier, or is it more likely he is waiting for their prices to drop before pouncing?
I wouldn't count them out until the players sign elsewhere.
Puig to Rangers? Why wouldn't it work for both teams?
Well, Puig makes sense for just about any team in theory. Huge ceiling, still, though obviously some might not want to roll the dice.
How about this..Yankees trade headley and move bird or arod to third base while the other plays DH?
I'm in favor of this purely so we can watch the experiment unfold in Yankee Stadium. But it doesn't seem very plausible.
How come we haven't heard anything about Alfredo Simon yet? Who are some suitors?
He's probably going to wait to sign until it's clear which teams have 5th starter spots or legitimate rotation battles available.
Any thoughts on the Al Jazeera drug report?
Do you think any of the guys trying to come back from retiring will
Dying to see Cliff Lee do it. I seem to be bullish there, but who wouldn't love to see if he is still an ace? He was just that not long ago.
Is your beard more impressive tha mine?
Dude I could match your volume. I challenge you to a beard-off, starting from a common starting point.
Jonathan Lucroy to the Twins for Alex Meyer and a PTBNL. Who says no?
Meyer took a huge step back last year. Way light, though I don't think Lucroy's value would be maxed out right now if they decided to put him up in an auction scenario.
Meola is saying Maeda to Dodgers for 8 years. Is that for real?
Chris has been right on quite a few things. Of course, we never know for sure until it's announced.
But man, that's interesting! He is young enough, of course. Fascinated to see how that is structured if it's starting off with 8 years.
Does a Melancon for Alex Wood make sense as a base for a trade?
Wood has far more value. Melancon is expensive and only controllable for one season. Also showed some areas for concern last year.
I'm a high school student seeking position as MLB reporter/writer, I would like to know how do people like @DfineNrmLC get Maeda info an hour before Heyman?!
You've asked this question about 42 times. That level of harassment of agents and random friends/family of players could turn up some info. Good luck!
Who has most trade value of Rockies outfielders?
Tough question. Might be Dickerson if he wasn't out all last year. If you believe in CarGo (I kind of don't) then it has to be him, even with just two years of control. If you don't believe in either of those guys, maybe it's Blackmon.
I think in practice, right now, I'll lean CarGo.
Jeff Todd is my hero
Doug Fister vs. Mat Latos. Who nets the best trade deadline return on a 1 year deal?
Well, Latos has a higher ceiling, but let's just say that I think a lot of teams have real character concerns.
Strasburg and Pabelbon from the Nats to the Yankees for Miller and a lower level prospect. Could this work? And if not, why?
No, because you just can't give up a guy who could -- emphasize could -- be one of the league's best starters next year for that kind of bullpen upgrade. Even if the guy you are getting rid of tried to strangle your best player late last year.
Leonys Martin and Taijuan Walker for Byron Buxton. Who says no?
Twins. Not close.
Will the Dodgers try to move Alex Wood now?
It's certainly an interesting idea.
Like ive been asking (and in response to the melancon question), wood for andrew miller makes the most sense doesnt it?
Hmm ... I kind of like it!
If trout was a free agent would he net a 400 million dollar deal? What about kershaw?
Trout, easily imo. Imagine the bidding. I'll take a clean half-bil.
Kershaw ... man, that's a big jump for a pitcher, but he is special. I'll take the under on that, though.
Jeff.....please briefly explain the cloud behind Yasiel Puig's current reputation among GM's. Why is there so much fear ? Why can't he be mentored ?
Well I don't know how GMs feel, but check out the recent piece from Scott Miller (we linked to it on the site) about Puig. It's really interesting, REALLY well done, and sheds some light on why it could be a legitimate concern.
Gut feeling on who I sign to play left field?
Fowler or Span look like the most likely outcomes to me among the higher-end guys.
Any chance Of a Strasburg extension before season starts?
Nah, not seeing it. I mean, you never know, but that just doesn't seem likely with Stras having the possibility of hitting the open market with no competition next winter.
Three more and I've gotta run!