MLBTR Chat With Jeff Todd 12-3-2015
Let's do this.
What would a James Shields trade look like?
It'll probably involve some creativity, unless they can find a good match for a player who is useful but kind of overpriced, like Shields. But there are any number of package arrangements that could be imagined. Really hard to predict.
What is a reasonable offer I stand to receive for Ken Giles?
I don't know, but I like where your head is at asking for guys like Velasquez and McCullers. Not likely you'll get them, but maybe you can pry loose their equivalent that hasn't yet reached the majors.
Every reason to aim high for Giles. I don't think he's quite worth that, mind you -- those two guys might be stud relievers themselves if they dont' stick in the rotation -- but why not try?
Will MLBTR be represented at Winter meetings?
Tim and Zach will be there. REPORTING LIVE ... or, more likely, enjoying drinks in the hotel lobby.
If you're AJ Preller, which catcher do you trade: Derek Norris or Austin Hedges?
What SS do the Padres sign ot acquire?
I see them as the best fit for Ian Desmond. Unless or until something changes -- e.g., some other club makes a trade that lines them up -- I like that fit best. Not saying it's perfect, but it's the most plausible IMO.
MLBTR's arb projections (which are amazing) had Justin Smoak projected for $2M, but the Jays re-signed him for $3.9M. What happened here? I assume something was off because Smoak re-signed for below his projection last year?
As I understand it, when a former arb player ends up dropping back in salary b/c they are released or non-tendered and then sign for a lower amount, and then is tendered later on down the line, that sets up a matter for discussion/negotiation: what is the right base #? Seems they did go with his original number in this case, and you are right that our projection assumed they'd use the more recent amount.
Will the Tigers sign another 20M per player this winter?
Won't count it out after hearing Mr. Money Bags Illitch's comments recently. Maybe they'll make a run at corner OF. Honestly I'm not real sure how to handicap that at this point, but if he's really willing to go over the luxury tax level, then sure, they could.
Will Todd Frazier be moved? What type of a return do you think the Reds get for him?
Believe they should. He'd bring back something good. I'm thinking you could legitimately ask for a couple of significant prospects. Like, the Craig Kimbrel return is the type of package I guess I'd have thought more likely for a guy like Frazier than for Kimbrel.
Will Greinke sign today? With who?
No idea! But it's fun to feel the tension all day long, isn't it?
Johnny Cueto fan
Where will Cueto end up?
I liked him to the Red Sox. Now? I wonder if the Dbacks could still end up being the spot. He decided to look for more $, but maybe they still have the best offer at the end of the day. Or maybe they find a way to increase it.
Otherwise, could still see the Giants or Dodgers chasing him if they miss on Greinke -- not that I'd expect it necessarily. Maybe Cubs or Cards, though that doesn't feel right for some reason.
Thoughts on the Price contract, dollars and years?
jeff in akron
doyou see the indians making a move or is this what we have with a few more minor deals involved?
They have come up in so many rumors with different teams on the controlled starters, especially Carrasco, that I kind of think they'll get something done. Now, maybe it's just a staring contest between them and the Braves with Shelby Miller -- who'll bite first on what's out there for the taking -- but I feel like other teams will be more motivated to get Carrasco. So I still see CLE in the driver's seat there.
dee gordon to the mets for wheeler, nimmo, and montero
The Marlins LOVE Dee Gordon. No chance. Especially when both arms are injured.
I feel like I answered this question already at some point. But it bears emphasis.
I haven't heard anything on Daniel Murphy? Any rumors on who he could sign with and who is interested?
Seems to be sitting behind Zobrist in the pecking order. Haven't heard anything specific, so the same analytically-inspired matches (e.g. Angels) still are the best I can offer on him.
Bill the Cat
If you were the Braves and had you druthers would you rather have AJ Pollack or Jorge Soler and why?
Pollock. Much better recent history, CF.
Hi Jeff, Did you hear any Blue Jay rumours?
They already signed three starters. Likely pretty quiet from here on out. Sorry, you got your excitement in Oct and Nov.
Maybe they'll trade Ben Revere at some point?
Twins get bruce?
I think they're rolling with Sano in the corner OF. Ryan was fairly clear about that recently. Don't see them chasing Bruce.
Will Neal Huntington trade Neil Walker? And what can he expect in return?
I've begun thinking about the Pirates more and more, and they look really interesting to me. They've got Walker and (even more likely) Melancon to deal. Alvarez off the books. Need starters especially. Should be fun to see what they do.
As for a Walker return, I'd think maybe a good, reasonably priced reliever? A high-upside lower-level prospect? Near to the bigs prospect that has had injury issues or scuffled a bit?
With one year and at his price, there isn't huge value. But some teams would rather trade for him than give the same or more annually to a guy like Kendrick or Murphy over 4 years.
Where do you see Cliff Lee pitching in 2016
I see him pitching his way into my heart.
Seriously, I'm excited to see what happens. Was very surprised at all the jokes today about him going to Japan or getting a minor league deal, if he's lucky.
Cliff Lee is amazing. He was amazing at all times in recent memory. He had the injury, tried to come back, had a major setback. This isn't a guy who has a lengthy, constant track record of unreliability. He's not an old dude who's been gone for like 3 years. He was really good in 2014!
No sure thing, but there's so much upside that there will be lots of interest, I expect.
Should the Phillies be mad that Cliff Lee wants to pitch after he sat at home for 1.5 seasons collecting ~62.7M?
What should he have been doing, pitching terribly with a serious injury? He tried to come back. The surgery, if he had it, wasn't exactly going to give him time to reestablish value and become a big trade chip.
Sorry, that's just the risk they took when they signed him. And the $12.5MM buyout on the option? Well, that's what happens when you push money to the back of a deal.
Okay one final thought on Lee ... Phils fans should be glad they got an absolute stud at a great price. He took 5/120 to go there and delivered plenty of value on that (over 20 WAR) despite the unlucky injury.
What would the return on Yunel Escobar be like
I still like the idea of a reverse Clippard deal. I.e., he gets a solid but not cheap reliever. Nats just need a lot of pen arms.
Could see clubs like the Whie Sox and Angels having interest. He's not all that valuable, but he's useful, esp because he can play SS and thus kind of reduces the need for a pure utility guy.
Can the Metal package Duda, Lagares, and Neise for a CF? Kelly Johnson stopgap at 1b until Dom Smith is ready
You want Kelly Johnson to play first base for the Mets for three years? Sounds risky.
Seriously, though, I don't see them moving Duda. He's a nice fit right now in terms of salary and production. Could see Lagares going back to another club in a deal to add a regular CF, though his value is obviously down.
Will either Alex or Ben accept my offer?
Bourjos: Starter on Phillies that pushes Herrera back to infield or 4th/5th OFer?
Flexible situation. They can let that all work itself out. If Bourjos emerges, could be a trade chip. He could help shore things up if Odubel stumbles. Nice guy to have on that roster right now.
J Rollins' mom
Is anyone going to sign J Rollins?
Yeah, let's not underestimate the value of a guy like that. Not far removed from 3+ win seasons.
Who closes for the twins
Perkins. They paid him for that job. They should add a good set-up arm or two, though.
You like the park signing
I do, good upside play. Not much risk. They can always reverse course on the Sano-in-OF experiment and trade Plouffe if need be.
Who do you think I will end up getting this offseason for my Chicago Cubs?
When you engineer a much-hyped transition and were already considered a star exec before that, and market prices are driving north, you have to set the market, right? I bet he will.
Marcell Ozuna for Paxton - would either side do this?
Not sure if it'll happen, but I think that's the right value range for an Ozuna return. Maybe there's a bit too much uncertainty with Paxton, but if the Marlins felt good about his work in the AFL, maybe it could work.
Of course, not sure the M's are lined up to do that now after adding multiple OFers.
Thank you! You finally answered one of my questions.
See! It's not prejudice. I'm doing my best, everyone.
You new at this?
Only way to learn is by trying.
Votto for Hanley ($), Moncada, Devers, and Benintendi
That would be quite a haul. I'd certainly pull the trigger if Dombrowski offered that to me.
Do you think the rumor of a $100 mil. contract for Samardijia could be for less than 9 years?
You know, that's a tough rumor to judge, but I'd be stunned if he's getting any offer of more than 6 years. Still think he's a five year guy. As for how much $? I don't know. We'll see. We're hearing a lot of big numbers, but we also heard some Ervin Santana $100MM chatter a few years back.
Robinson Cano back to the Bronx? If not this year, near future?
Will wait to even think about that until I hear some reasonable suggestion of how/why.
Can the A's get anything good for Billy Butler?
Well, I've been bypassed yet again for a GM job ... Ross Atkins will take over for the Jays. Former Indians exec.
BIG MIKE RIZZO
Anthony Rendon, Joe Ross, Lucas Giolito, Victor Robles, Reynaldo Lopez, Drew Storen, Yunel Escobar FOR Mike Trout and Garrett Richards?
That's a big package, but did you just say Mike Trout? Yeah sign me up, Mike. No way you'll get it done, but you've done amazing work if you even got Eppler/Moreno thinking about moving a guy who might be one of the greatest players of all time in mid-prime.
Could the White Sox go after Desmond?
Yeah, the Sox look like the next most likely team to SDP at this point. But his market is still quite murky, best I can tell.
what value does brock holt have an alternative to those that lose out on ben zobrist?
I wouldn't expect any teams to come calling with a huge return to offer, if that's what you're wondering. Sure, he's a sneaky valuable guy, but not someone (as things stand) who I'd expect to generate any kind of bidding war.
Whose starting at 2B for us Opening Day?
Is a lefty or right pitching for the other team?
Lou Gormans Estate
Moncada, Owens, Sandoval, maybe a Sean Coyle type, cash for Sale & Saladino
What are your thoughts on Javier Baez's trade value? Is he enough to get Shelby Miller?
No, I don't think he is.
What kind of deal do you see Alex Gordon getting? Are the O's a legit contender for his services?
I think Gordon is a 95-105MM type of value player right now. Not sure I see BAL giving out a team record deal to a guy who is that old.
Who gets D O'Day?
My guess right now is the Nats. He has ties to the region, they have the need. Though I'm not sure if they are really going to go to four years. Maybe someone else has a higher offer and they are hoping he'll take a slight discount.
With Yonder Alonso traded, can you see Chris Davis come to the Padres?
Sounds like Wil Myers will slot in at first. A Davis signing would be a stunner.
Any chance the Yankees are in on Maeda?
Sure. He's not even been posted yet, though, so we don't have a very good idea of his market.
Do you see the Korean posting system getting changed in the future to benefit the players, ex. Park?
I was emailing about this with Tim and Steve recently. Here's the thing: all of the rules are unfair in one way or another. MLB is rich and the players have a strong union, so they are able to balance it out fairly well, but that still mostly benefits established big leaguers.
For smaller leagues like the KBO -- much like, say, Major League Soccer -- there are a lot more controls on salaries and player movement and the players just have less sway. That's in large part b/c the league, somewhat rightly, needs the control to get by.
In this case, the root unfairness of the KBO posting comes from the really long control rights that KBO teams get. These guys can't just say "fine, then I'll wait til next year and I'll be a free agent at 27 years old." So, it's more complicated bc there are domestic implications in Korea
That being said, it would be nice if they moved to something like the new Japanese system.
Will the braves trade Shelby Miller
I know there was a report suggesting they might be leaning against, but I don't think the market is shifting that quickly. I think they probably will. It's far from certain, but it seems like there's some good momentum towards a deal.