MLBTR Chat With Jeff Todd 11-27-15
Did you survive today's bombardment of consumerism? Ready to get back to the relative sanity of MLB's free agent shopping spree? Then get some questions rolling in and we'll chat about them shortly.
This will also serve as a test to see how many of our readers are paying attention to baseball this afternoon.
What's my next move?
Gotta be getting that top arm, right? We are at the point of the winter where major signings and trades could happen at any time. Given that they targeted and pulled the trigger on Kimbrel, and have the kind of cash and trade assets to acquire more or less whoever they want, the Red Sox will probably be aiming to do what they want in terms of SP before turning to other areas.
(Now watch DD go out and sign some minor league free agent reliever this evening.)
Do you see the nationals and A's pulling off their annual offseason deal? Seems like they are always swapping players, could Lawrie or Valencia be a fit?
They sure do have a cozy working relationship. I'm not sure I see a great match this year, though. Their deals tend to be for good, solid big league pieces where there's a good fit, but this time around both have right-handed hitting infielders to shop (that'd be Yunel Escobar on the Nats side, potentially) and would probably like to add solid pen arms.
What might be the biggest free agent the Pirates could go after this offseason?
So hard to know with that organization. It's still possible they loosen up a bit and spend. They did sign Liriano to a not-insignificant contract last year.
If PIT is able to move Melancon, Walker, and Alvarez, that would free up some significant cash. While I expect that Huntington and co. will want to avoid massive future entanglements, he might have some room to play around and target someone. Still would be surprised if that went over the 3-4 year, 40-50 million level.
I always pay attention to baseball
In the spirit of Black Friday, who are some free agents who will qualify as excellent bargains this off-season?
Always fun to try, and fail, at this kind of prediction. Span, Pearce, Kendrick, Aoki come to mind as possibilities. Maybe Kazmir and Shawn Kelley on the pitching side.
Seems like the Brewers tear down is in full effect. Who could all be shipped?
Nothing is sacred in Milwaukee, so theoretically any player could be moved. Guessing that Braun won't deliver the kind of value they'd need to send him out, and I still kind of expect that they'll wait til July on Lucroy. But this catching market is barren, so teams that want an upgrade will be all over Lucroy if he's put on auction.
Thanks for doing this! I hate the game with the weird, oval shaped baseball.
You mean rugby? Rugby is awesome!
OH, I gotcha, football. Yeah, no offense to fans, as I used to love the sport, but I'm pretty well done with it, too.
Should the Braves hang on to Freeman or trade him for prospects?
I think they pretty well have to hang onto him at this point unless someone offers a return that includes well-known, young MLB-level players.
As far as "should" ... well, I'd personally be willing to deal him, sure. His contract isn't all that cheap, even though he is quite a good player.
Does Jay Bruce have enough trade value left to land a top-100 prospect in return?
Maybe one that the acquiring team is down on, but I don't see him as having quite that value right now otherwise. It's not that he couldn't be a stud next year -- the talent is still there. It's just that he has been too inconsistent and not good enough recently to count on it. With just one year of control left and not at a bargain rate, I wouldn't give up a ton to get him.
That being said, if you're in need of that kind of upside but don't want to guarantee someone 3 or 4 years in FA, then you have to be willing to go after guys like that.
Darryl in Frisco
What are chances Napoli remains a Ranger?
Don't love that fit unless they really think he can play in the outfield. Otherwise, I see another team having more first base/DH at-bats to give him.
Neil walker for hecotr santiago seems plausible. No?
I'd still hate to give up that much control in a solid arm to add a one-year guy who's earning $10MM, but I can see the merit there. Walker would make for a nice fit in LAA.
Did you have a nice Thanksgiving?
Not bad -- worked the a.m. shift and then took the kids to a friends' place for some good food and good times. Hard to complain.
Thanks for asking! Hope you all had a good one, too.
OWENS JBJ and Miley for Strasburg who hangs up first
I don't think that's enough to get the Nats to part with Stras, honestly. Just too much invested in this season. It's not exactly unfair in terms of value, but my feeling is that Rizzo would need a more premium single piece to do it.
What do you think the Twins should do the rest of the offseason?
Would love to see them beef up the pen, as I know our own Steve Adams would like as well. And I do think it's probably time to deal Plouffe and install Sano at third. He could bring back a contributor at another position of need and free some $.
Otherwise, though, this is a club that will and should be wary of taking on too many commitments. They need to let things develop a bit and see whether that young talent is as good as they think.
Trade proposal: Matt Harvey to Arizona for Pollock?
I would never make that deal if I were Dave Stewart. Harvey is a beast, and is worth that kind of talent in return, but risk/cost/control favors the young center fielder.
Teams are knocking down the door to try to get Pollock, I'm sure. There's interest in the other Arizona outfielders as well, but he's the prize. A team with that kind of spending capacity needs to keep players like him, in my view. Could be quite a pairing with Goldschmidt (and whatever other talented position players turn into stars) for years to come.
Should the Phillies take on at least 1 bad contract for prospects?
Absolutely should be willing, and I am certain that new GM Matt Klentak is looking for any and all means of adding talent.
Any chance the Astros jump in ok David Price or Zack Greinke?
Don't see it.
Do you see Seattle making a deal for Ozuna work after all or will they be outbid?
Seems like a guy that Dipoto would be very interested in, but that goes for other teams as well. It appears that Miami is well aware of the interest in Ozuna, so I don't think they'll be settling for just anything. This seems like an auction scenario to me -- get your best offers in so we can decide which young pitcher we want in return.
So, will Seattle be the team? Don't know, but Dipoto put a high value on young arms in LA.
Why not use that extra money to sign Gerrit Cole to an extension?
Teams operating on tighter payrolls have to be more concerned with annual salaries than the really big spenders. So, the Dodgers can spin money around in whichever way they want, and think only of the financial considerations that impact present value and their own internal baseball valuations.
Long-winded way of saying, I'm not sure to what extend freeing $ this year in PIT would really make a Cole extension more or less likely. I mean, I guess it would help - could always sweeten an offer with a bonus, say - but I'm guessing that's really a question of whether the team can find a reasonable offer that it feels comfortable making (combined with the player's own interest).
Do the Giants add 0. 1, or 2 starting pitchers?
2 is my guess
Do the Jays really sign a Zimmerman-level pitcher? Or more like Kazmir or even reclamations like Fister?
Hard to know, isn't it? Haven't seen Shapiro operate. And there's the matter of long-term deals for Bautista and/or Encarnacion, which MLBTR's Mark Polishuk touched upon in his post on a Bautista deal last night.
My guess would be they end up going the route of a less significant commitment, with one addition maybe being in that Kazmir range (3-4 years, 40-50 mil type). But that's far from clear, and others will expect more.
What return can braves get for Shelby miller
Lots of questions on Shelby ...
I am still wary of the guy myself, which is one reason I think the Braves are ready and willing to cash him in. I bet that at least one or two teams will make a significant offer for him. And given his age and control, you'd have to think one or two premium young players would be involved.
Do the Rays move McGee or Boxberger for a bat? If so, who could you see them getting?
Definitely can see it, and the fact that their names have been in the media so much suggests there's someone who wants some other people to know they are available.
Hard to guess at this point where they'd look add, but catcher would certainly be one possibility as would left field (if they dump Jennings) or the 1B/DH area (if they dump Loney).
What is Andrew Cashner worth?
Not all that much. One year and $8 mil or whatever he's projected at. If you really believe in him and think he's going to deliver a good year, then sure, there's excess value there. But it isn't long-term value b/c he'll be a FA.
I mean, he's obviously not a guy who's just sort of worth his contract, but I have a hard time seeing a club parting with a significant prospect asset at this point.
What can Pedro Alvarez even net the Pirates on the return?
Mostly salary relief.
Will Cano be a Yankee?
I see no reason to think this will happen.
Is there a list of out or option players for 2016 out yet or a place we could find them??
Tim Dierkes always researches and reports on that, but that will probably come in the spring.
Trade or extend Tyson Ross?
Don't know if they'll get traction in extension talks or not -- that's all dependent upon his willingness -- but I'd see if I could get something done with him before dealing him.
I really like Ross and think he would bring back a nice return, though. And keeping him for this year while waiting to decide on a trade til the summer or next winter is hardly the worst plan, either.
Do the Giants spend majority of $ on OF or Pitching?
I expect they will plunk down real cash (and/or trade assets) in both areas. Feel like SP spending has long been all but inevitable, and a significant OF addition became likely when they let Aoki go.
Can Chapman even get the ball rolling on a Pollock trade?
He would be a significant piece of a trade, sure, but he's not worth anything near Pollock.
Chapman is awesome, but one year of control, closer, not cheap.
Will the Rangers try to move Elvis Andrus?
Not worth trying at this point, really. I think they are stuck with him unless/until he shows sustained improvement. He's not cheap, at all.
Why cant the mets just be happy with Flores? he hit 16 homers and his fielding improved as the season went on
They can be happy with him generally, but at SS? They already really indicated they don't like him there when they moved him off the position.
I'm close to publishing the Mets offseason outlook, and I'm now kind of thinking they will trade a middle infielder in some way. Just so many options, none of whom is obviously "the one" (at least not this year).
I kind of expect them to add a veteran on a short-term deal at SS, like Alexei Ramirez. My favorite for Ian Desmond is now the Padres.
Can Mike Rizzo pull off a few crazy trades this offseason to fix bullpen and lineup?
Don't know, but it will be really fun to watch. He's swung some awesome deals before, and there's a lot of possibilities.
Could Tyson Ross to the O's happen? Seems a good match.
Where's the match on the other side, though? Other clubs would be able to and willing to offer more, I think.
Any chance Red Sox sign price and a Zimmerman
Doesn't sound plausible to me.
Do you think Alex Gordon will take a discount to stay in KC?
Maybe a slight one, but not enough to get into the team's comfort zone. (That's my guess.)
Any updates on that Korean closer they call "The Final Boss"?
No, but let us all spend a moment just appreciating that nickname.
Okay, carry on.
Seems like we have heard Dave Dombrowski talk an awfull lot about Ramirez and nothing about Sandoval. Do you think they plan to keep Hanley and are trying to move Papblo??
Not sure how to read the tea leaves on that one, but in some ways I guess I could see Pablo as the more likely guy to change teams -- in large part b/c the third base market is so weak, he's so young, and he drew such wide interest as a free agent.
Still guessing that they end up with both players in Boston to start the year, but trades are possible to imagine.
Let's go mets
Wheeler for betts?
Dream on, dear Mets fan!
Wheeler is still a nice trade chip, don't get me wrong, but Mookie is now one of the most valuable players in baseball.
Could we see a Lawrie for Carassco trade? Seems like Cleveland has a need at third and the A's could use a reliable #2 starter in their rotation.
Way light for Carrasco.
I am the Walrus
Could Ploufee get a 50-100 prospect a plus a decent reliever?
That sounds like the top of his value range to me.
Do you sign extentions for Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion or Josh Donaldson
Donaldson would be the priority, and offers the best value proposition. But you don't do it unless you get the price you want.
Other two guys: pick the one you want, offer something discounted but near market value for what they'll expect as a FA. But don't get desperate to get one or both under contract, because they both carry risk and won't be cheap.
Neil Walker to the Yankees a good fit?
Not really seeing Cashman going for that. He got Ackley for a reason, seems to view him as capable of holding down a platoon with Refsnyder. Think they'd need a more significant upgrade (near term and possibly longer term) to do something at second.
Haven't heard much on J Up. Any news
Not really! Hasn't been much chatter on these outfielders, has there? We have had a very hard time guessing where each of the guys could end up, because there are a decent number of possibilities but few obvious fits.
Still very much up in the air -- feels like a stand-off where everyone (players, agents, teams) are waiting for someone to blink. Could be a player taking somewhat less than the others are asking, a team deciding to go hard for one guy, etc.
Still plenty of time til the real action gets started in Nashville.
Will the Reds trade frazier
Mixed signals still. I think they should, personally.
Strasburg and papelbon for betts, devers, and Christian Vazquez
I have long been a fan of Rizzo, but if he pulls that off I'll become a lifelong devotee and will follow any teaching he makes.
Seriously, though, that might not be a bad exchange for a single year on-field performance, but Stras and Pap both are under control for just one season. Neither is super cheap, but Papelbon is arguably slightly overpaid (arguably well overpaid when considering his bad reputation and incredibly bad judgment late last year).
Meanwhile, Betts is amazing and controlled and cheap and the other guys on the Boston side have worlds of promise and control.
Inciarte, Lamb, and Archie Bradley for Danny Salazar?
Sounds like a lot to give up for Salazar, and this is coming from someone who likes him. But I guess that depends how you feel about Bradley after some rough stretches.