MLBTR Chat With Jeff Todd 11-19-15
You've got questions, I might have answers. Ask away.
What does a trade for Matt Harvey bring back?
Sorry, not doing fantasy questions.
But seriously, Harvey is a premium arm. Would be a huge haul. No indication that's happening.
What is an example of a package the Yankees could get back for Andrew Miller?
Now I also don't really buy Miller being shopped in the traditional sense. He could be a part of a re-shuffling deal that better fits parts between teams, but it's hard to really assess that in the way we do when we talk about the prospects that could be returned for a veteran who's being sold off.
Brewers GM David Stearns gets Jonathan Villar from the Astros. Just announced.
Former Astros AGM, of course.
Who would you be most comfortable committing big money to long term: Davis, Upton or Cespedes?
Upton, for me. He is what he is at this point, perhaps, but he seems like he has the least downside of that group and he's the youngest.
Why should I spend 20 million+ per year on a left fielder?
Because it's not your money, it's Arte Moreno's.
But really, not sure you need to. As Alden Gonzalez told me on today's podcast, they will be in on all the options in LF, but could look for value there, too.
So what's your favorite Gardner trade proposal? I personally like: to the Nats for Drew Storen and a pitching prospect, not Cole/Giolito but a grade below.
Also like the Nats as a match, but I'm not sure they need to (or would) give up even that much to even it out.
Can the Giants sign Both a big bat and a top pitcher
They can, yes. Kept the powder dry last winter.
Would a package of Castro + McKinney be enough to get Ross from SD?
For me, Ross has elevated himself to the point where that's light. But I am a big fan of his.
Does Héctor Santiago for Trevor Plouffe make sense?
I think Santiago is too much to give. Plouffe is a nice player but not cheap. Halos are among the best matches for him, though.
Do you realistically see Shelby Miller being moved?
I think it is plenty realistic, yes. Not saying it will happen, but wouldn't surprise me at all.
Do you buy the rumors that the Dodgers aren't spending any money this offseason?
In one sense, yes. As in, they might not spend a ton. And I think this front office is going to go in part where the value assessment leads them.
But they probably also won't shy away from getting the guys they really want, even if that means beating a tough market to get them. So I'm not buying the idea that they are going in with the idea that they just won't spend, if anyone is really suggesting that.
Is there any scenario where the Tigers trade Cabrera?
Eh, maybe that answer was too hasty. Who knows? Not seeing it, though.
Could a Quintana trade bring back more than Hamels got the Phillies?
Absolutely. Cheaper, younger, arguably as good.
Have the pirates missed their window of opportunity?
Don't see why they would have.
Should the Angels trade Garrett Richards to the Rockies for Carlos Gonzalez?
I feel like people are always over-valuing CarGo. That's way too much, from my perspective.
Do the Twins sign any free agents
For sure. I still like them to focus on the relief market.
do you think the braves have lost their minds?
No, they have a plan and know what they are trying to accomplish. It's messy but, arguably, necessary.
It's a lot of fun to watch from the outside, but I can also understand why it sucks to be a Braves fan right now.
Do the O's spend big this offseason or not?
I mean, I think they'll fill up the payroll in one way or another. But I'm still not expecting them to add a nine-figure FA.
On the one hand, Wieters taking the QO took up payroll space. On the other, though, it kind of has to have nudged them toward favoring near-term contention somewhat.
My vote would be to try to build a contender without taking on TOO much in long-term commitments, and be ready to sell off pieces at the deadline (including MW) if it doesn't work.
Are the Nats a surprise player for Greinke or Heyward?
I could see them being a surprise entrant into those markets, sure. But I'm not expecting it.
Does the news of the Brewers acquisition of Villar signify a possible 'bye bye' for Segura?
Definitely could. Villar is a major league option.
Of course, they also might've just seen an opportunity to grab a guy when HOU was looking to clear 40-man space. And it's not at all inconceivable that both players could be on the roster together.
What are the chances of a Padres-Cubs blockbuster?
Still some matches there on paper, but nothing done yet so who knows?
Are the Reds still in a good position to get a good hail for Chapman, or are they coming off as too desperate at this point?
Chapman is unbelievable. He is probably better than Kimbrel at this point, which is crazy. The return will be driven by the multiple teams with serious interest in adding him, not by the Reds' public posturing.
Odds of Fernandez actually getting dealt?
Very low. Marlins understand public relations. Fernandez is of Cuban descent, had an amazing story, is a photogenic star. And the team wants to win. It would take something truly special to pry him loose ...
... right now, at least. He could end up being dealt eventually. But I think they would really, legitimately have to be overwhelmed with a return that included major league pieces even to consider it right now.
Miguel Montero for C.J Wilson?
Angels would jump on it, can't see Cubs biting.
What can the bucs realistically expect in a Neil walker trade
He's an interesting one. Not entirely dissimilar to Howie Kendrick last year, except Bucs will be more motivated to deal him and he's at least arguably not quite the player. (Though it's arguable that they are about the same value, too.)
I don't think he'll get a top pitching prospect back, but with that precedent I dont think you can rule it out entirely. Ability to recoup a draft pick by QO'ing him after the year should increase the return, too.
Should the Pirates trade for Adam Lind?
Definitely a guy who makes sense on paper, sure. But Lind will appeal to other teams. I expect MIL to shop him around and look to get something they really like in a trade.
Banner chat for transactions ... another move!
Cubs claim Jack Leathersich from Mets. Moving on. ...
Zaidi Hawkins Day
While Braves pitcher would be closest of equal value for Puig?
Miller is their most valuable pitcher. Is he that valuable? Not for me.
Belt for Salazar a fair trade?
Depends if you believe in Salazar. I do, so wouldn't give him for Belt, especially at their cost and with just 2 years of Belt left.
2 most likely to sign with the Angels?
I still like them the most for Daniel Murphy. Lefty bat, can play second, third, or even outfield if needed.
What type of extension would Nolan arenado potentially get from the Rockies?
Mammoth. That's really hard to put a specific number on, but we've got him projected for over $6MM as a super two. Even if he falls a bit shy of that, he's got a huge starting point. And he'll earn big arb raises playing in Coors. All that factors into it, and his new agents are plenty aware of the market value.
Likelihood dombrowski trade moncada or benintendi?
Seems low at this point after the Kimbrel deal, but can't rule it out.
C.J. Wilson + 10 MIL for Neil Walker
No way, for me at least. Don't even know if CJ is healthy yet.
Who could the Giants get for Brandon Belt?
Why are people trying to deal away Belt? Still seems more likely he ends up extended, or just playing out his deal.
Crick and Tomlinson (SF) for Miller (Atl), who hangs up first?
Could you see Adam Eaton being traded? If so for what?
Not seeing this at all, no.
Do the Phillies trade giles
I'll put odds at 40/60 ... think they'll be fully willing to do so, if a big price tag is met. If not, can always cash him in at deadline if he's dominating. Or next winter. No rush, and if I'm Klentak I'm taking the risk to hold out for a big haul.
Chances I hit 25 homeruns on my goodbye tour?
Rather good, from where I'm sitting. You're awesome.
Thoughts on Max Kepler?
Euro ball is fun. Give a listen to my podcast with Josh Chetwynd, Euroball agent (and my friend).
Sorry for shameless plug, couldn't resist.
Otherwise ... he's a nice piece to have on hand and probably played a role in willingness to trade Hicks (for better or worse). Gives them another option now-ish and in the future.
SP most likely added by Jays. Please don't say Mike Leake.
I don't know, but when I saw this and started thinking about it, I didn't think "Mike Leake." So I'm comfortable saying, not Mike Leake.
How many years at what price is realistic for Mike Leake?
We have had him in the 5/80 range for some time and haven't seen any reason to change that expectation. (Same goes for Chen and Shark.)
Where do you see Dioner Navarro ending up?
He's an interesting guy with the lefty bat. Angels, Nationals, White Sox, Tigers, Marlins are among teams that pop into my head as possible destinations. There's just not much on backstop market right now, so he should do pretty well. I guess you could say the same for Avila and the others.
Are you seriously shocked that people are talking about potential trades in the offseason..... on a trade rumors website? You may be in the wrong line of work, Jeff
Best advice for making it through this terrible meeting?
Come up with concrete plan to quit the job that is forcing you into this meeting.
Do you see Phillips moving before the start of the 2016 season?
Yeah I think that makes lots of sense. Good time to sell, slide Suarez over to 2B.