MLBTR Chat with Jeff Todd 10-29-15
Howdy. Sorry for the late start -- it was classroom helper day for me at my daughter's school. One of her classmates thought I was Charlie Blackmon.
Start asking questions and we'll get started shortly!
If the Marlins were to trade Marcell Ozuna who do you see as a potential replacement? Move Dietrich to left and Yelich to Center? Or Go FA( Cespedes, Heyward)
Good question. I've not seen much indication that they view Yeli as a CF, but I guess that's hypothetically plausible. I don't see Cespedes or Heyward as reasonable, though, and it doesn't help that neither is really a center fielder (though I'd be more inclined to trust the latter there than the former). There are some buy-low options (Denard Span, Austin Jackson) who could theoretically make sense, but they'll still cost some real money.
I asked Steve this, but I want to get your take too. Chris Taylor+ for Drew Storen. Thoughts?
Not sure the Nats really need Taylor at this point, now that they have Trea Turner and also Wilmer Difo reaching MLB readiness. Remember, also, that Storen has only got one year of control left and won't be cheap, so it'll be hard to pull that kind of value. I can also see the Nats targeting another short-term piece (as they did with Clippard last year) or otherwise asking for further-away prospects.
Is Hanley with the Sox in the Spring?
I think he will be, because they aren't going to have an easy time moving him and he still has plenty of upside. Hard guy to just give up on at this point by selling low.
What would it take for Braves to get Ozuna from Marlins? Maybin (plus all his salary this year) and Ricardo Sanchez do the deal?
I don't think that gets it done, no. But I do like the idea of Miami picking up a CF replacement in a trade if they move Ozuna.
We've been talking about a similar idea with the Cubs, who could add a guy like Kyle Hendricks - who could fill in a trade partner's rotation - if they were to deal for a starter.
Is Roberto Osuna in the MLB rotation, pen, or AAA rotation at the star of next year?
Betting MLB pen for him. He was good there, of course, for an extended stretch. They obviously felt like Sanchez was more prepared to move into the big league rotation, so he seems a better bet to move back there among the two.
Do you see the Twins as making a play for Jonathan Lucroy? And what would a package consist of that the Brewers would agree to?
Lucroy is a hard guy to value after a really rough season, but there's no way Milwaukee will just get what they can for him. I think new GM David Stearns will set his price tag and won't move unless it's met. Lucroy might have a better chance of being dealt this summer.
MIN could certainly be a player if Lucroy is marketed. He won't be cheap, but they have the prospect depth to get it done. I bet the Brewers would want pitching in return.
Would MLBTR make a per team list of players who could receive qualifying offers?
I suggest you listen in to today's podcast when it hits the site (won't be too long from now). Steve Adams and I spent way too long talking through all the marginal QO candidates last night.
Do the Astros extend a QO to Rasmus?
He's a guy we discussed. As Steve put it, you can talk yourself into either approach. He seems like a player who could be uniquely inclined to take it - b/c Houston was a good fit for him after two bad experiences - despite his young age. Do they want him back? Maybe. I could see just having two plans in place, one for if he takes it, one for if he declines. In latter scenario, perhaps they'd feel more compelled to move salary - guys like Chris Carter, Luis Valbuena/Jed Lowrie could be moved, in theory.
Just how much damage is Yoenis Cepedis doing to his free agency in these playoffs series
Not much, if any. Steve and I also discussed this, off the air, last night. Value doesn't swing nearly as drastically as some media members (and, perhaps, some of their over-eager sources) make it out to. I really don't think that general managers are going to dock him $30MM in valuation after watching a handful of games.
Carrasco for Schwarber. Who hangs up first?
I don't know! Vibes from the Cubs' press are that they have no interest in dealing Schwarber, so I feel like they wouldn't. But at first glance these guys are in the same value range I suppose. I guess it depends on how teams feel about these guys. Carrasco really just got unlucky last year, too, because his peripherals are kind of ace-ish and his contract is super cheap. And Schwarber has the positional questions still.
Should the Twins trade Trevor Plouffe to play Sano at 3B? If so, what would his trade market be?
Definitely maybe. He'd get a good bit of interest. Not a guy you're giving up top prospects for just to control for one season at a not-super-cheap price, but you'd definitely have teams lining up for a chance to fill in a solid player in a weak third base market. Could be more an opportunity for MIN to use him to fill another need at the MLB level rather than picking up some hotshot young player.
What do you expect Price to command on the market, and who pays the most for him??
Scherzer-ish money, maybe more (though I doubt he'll blow that contract out of the water). I really couldn't offer a prediction, but teams like the Red Sox and Cubs should be in on him so it's hard to see his market falling too far.
Is it conceivable for the Braves to go after Cespedes and trade Maybin and play Cespedes in center until Smith is deemed ready?
Other than it being imaginable, in the way most things are, I just don't see this as a plausible scenario.
What do you think Reds should do with middle infield issue Cozart/Suarez/Phillips?
Turn it over to Cozart and Suarez, trade Phillips. He'd definitely draw interest: good defender, improved bat last year, contract no longer looks terrible with just two years left (though they'd probably end up paying some of it down). He makes more sense on another team, in my view.
Tyson Ross or Carlos Carraso for Montero &Coghlan. Fair? Doable?
That's just not remotely close to fair value for those pitchers, though Montero and Coghlan are both nice players. And neither the Pads nor the Indians need a catcher.
My Reds seem like they are doomed Can you give me some hope?
Sure: last year's Simon and Latos deals worked out swimmingly, the club got lots of arms over the summer for guys who were going to be FAs anyway, and some of their remaining trade pieces (Phillips/Chapman/Votto) had really nice years. We all know the issues, but I'm not ready to say they are completely up the creek.
How far-fetched is a Ellsbury-Cano swap?
With Anthopolous gone, are we likely to revisit the Duquette to Toronto debacle again?
No, he would've been an addition more in the Shapiro mold.
what do you think the Mariners do with Logan Morrison? non tender? does he have any trade value?
He's more of a NT candidate than a guy with any trade value.
Why does nobody love me?
I don't know, you certainly look cuddly.
Schwarber for Sonny Gray.. who hangs up?
A's. I love Schwarber, but Gray is an in-prime, controllable ace.
Who would be a better 2B fit for the Braves. Zobrist or Murphy?
I keep seeing questions like this on Atlanta. Just not seeing that kind of addition. I know they went and got Markakis, and I do think they'll be willing to add players, but those are guys who they'd have to chase the market on. I expect they want to see more of Jace Peterson as well as Ozhaino Albies before locking into another older infielder (after getting Olivera).
Hypothetically, what would it take for Padres to get Andrelton Simmons?
Simmons is the kind of player you'd have to pry loose. I'm not seeing what San Diego possesses that would entice Atlanta to do that.
Alex Reyes and Randal Grichuk for Carlos Gonzalez.. who hangs up?
Is Matt Wieters a Brave in 2016?
Okay, since I'm now covering Atlanta in detail ... I guess I can see more merit to a guy like Wieters than most other FAs. (If, at least, they are ready to give up on Bethancourt.) He's the type of guy you might say, "at worst he'll be a solid contributor and will help bring young arms around, and maybe it's just an opportune time to get him." So maybe, but they probably wouldn't be my first choice to land him.
Who will I be playing with next season?
Brett Gardner trade with any fit team? What's need get to player from team?
Lots of teams, yeah. His salary is reasonable, he can play center. Off the top of my head, I could imagine clubs like the Cubs, Nationals, Tigers, Mariners ...
How much time should the Cardinals spend this offseason on Heyward? They already said its their #1 priority but they could potentially miss out on some great FA.
The Cards don't really waste time on guys in FA. They target the guys they want, and move on if they don't get them. I don't expect they'll let a really lengthy bidding war on Heyward prevent them from doing other things. If they think he's going to get more than they are comfortable giving, Mozeliak and co. will probably move on even before he's made a decision. (This is all complete supposition, btw.)
Dominic smith looks like he's for real. How long until he's ready and what do the mets do with Duda when he is?
He had a decent year at High-A. A hot streak in the AFL doesn't really move up his timeline. Duda is only under contract for two years.
All of which is to say: he's not forcing any plans right now. If he turns into a stud, he'll just line up nicely with Duda's own departure. But I'd expect that if they feel Duda is a long-term answer, they'd still try to lock him up. (I expect they'll go year to year or maybe do a two-year arb-only extension with him.)
How much interest around the league would there be for Andre Ethier?
I think he'd draw a good bit of interest, in part b/c teams know that the Dodgers would be willing to eat salary. He's got what, $38MM left over two years? I think he could get a 3-year deal if he were a FA after a 136 OPS+ season, so it's not like his deal is that out of whack for his actual value.
Forgive my naivete, but are sign and trades a thing in MLB? Was thinking that a sign and trade by Baltimore of Chris Davis and Toronto could make a lot of sense. Jays get an upgrade on their weakest position player spot, and they have extra corner outfielders and a pitching prospect or so to send back. Something like Smoak/Pompey/Reid-Foley for Davis?
Nope, they aren't. Free agents aren't eligible to be traded until June 15 of the new season.
Jose Reyes for Zach Wheeler. Could it realistically happen?
Sorry, but this drastically overvalues Reyes. The TJ ins't great for Wheeler, but no way you give him up for an expensive, aging, underperforming player. Remember, he was going to go with Wilmer Flores to the Brewers for Carlos Gomez, who had (and has) way more trade value than Reyes.
Who would help my Cubbies more, Price or Heward?
Price. I'd call Heyward more of a luxury. They will want to see where Soler and Schwarber go, and remember that Almora and McKinney are coming. It's easier to find good platoon partners and otherwise mix and match in the outfield than it is to get big innings down the stretch and in the postseason.
Where do you see Dominic Brown getting a shot next year?
I don't know, but he's a guy who has some upside from a contractual perspective since you can control him via arb if he works out. And he's hit well against righties, so you could do worse than using him in a corner OF platoon (though his defense is hard to watch).
Could the Pirates trade for Edwin Encarnacion if available?
That doesn't strike me as being realistic, for many reasons. First and foremost, I don't see him being traded. If he were to be moved, it would almost certainly be for a young, talented player who is already in the big leagues. Do you see the Bucs giving up someone like that to upgrade with a player on a shorter-term contract?
Should I be looked at as a starter or a bench piece in Free agency?
I guess you could think of him like a key 6th man in the NBA - a guy who might get even more minutes than some starters. He might not be signed with expectations of simply filling one single position over the course of a year, but he's going to have sufficient market demand to go to a team that will credibly promise to play him basically every day.
Why aren't any of my questions answered?
I have a compulsive dislike for people named Michael. Choose a new name and try again.
What would it take for the Twins to get Ramos back from the Bats?
Now that would be fun. As a DC-area native, I often needle Steve (a Minny native) about the original deal. But Ramos was pretty disappointing last year. The value is obviously down, but I still have a hard time seeing the Nats just sort of giving up on him. Don't see that getting done without another exchange that makes Steve upset.
I don't mean to suggest that Ramos has tons of trade value, btw. He is only under control for one more year and isn't going to be cheap. But you can't just give away a player like that. He could theoretically be swapped for another short-term guy at a position of need -- if the Nats were to sign Wieters or otherwise get a new regular catcher -- but who do the Twins have that would fit that description? Plouffe doesn't look like a good fit.
Is Jordan Zimmerman a more realistic acquisition than Dprice, zgeinke?
I'd view the Dbacks as a dark horse on Zimmermann, especially if his market doesn't develop as hoped. I'd say they have no shot (and won't try to pursue) the other two.
Are Yoenis Cespedes and Daniel Murphy gone? What do you think the Mets look like next season?
I expect both will be gone, yes. The outfield is more or less covered, unless they trade Lagares or something. Without having analyzed it in detail (yet), I think they'll feel good at second (Flores, Herrera) and will look for a short-term upgrade at shortstop to keep the seat warm for Rosario/Cecchini. It's not inconceivable, I guess, that they rely on Reynolds and Tejada (plus the occasional Flores) at the position, but I do think they'll feel the need to add to their team in some way.
So you're cool with mike but not Michael?
Yeah as long as you shorten it, we're good.
Do I hang them up or keep going till I have a heart attack?
For the love of all that is holy, please keep going and don't have a heart attack.
Where does Marlon Byrd land?
No idea, but well played.
How do you become an insider?
No idea, I'm not an insider and wouldn't call myself that. And most people that call themselves "insiders" are not insiders, fwiw.
MIKE RIZZO-TRADE GOD
Strasburg and Storen for Benintendi, Javier Guerra, and Brock Holt?
This is the 20th time this trade proposal has been posted into the chat. So, consider it broadcast to the baseball-loving world.
(Last report I saw said Benintendi was a guy they were going to hold, so not sure he'd be moved for two one-year assets.)
What do you think of sabermetrics?
Incredibly useful, informative, fun. I think that most people who criticize sabermetrics don't understand it. I think most people who analyze statistical data are well aware of the limitations of their conclusions and only want to contribute to general knowledge development and enjoy the game.
I'm of the cumbaya camp here: it makes sense to consider all angles together. "Sabermetrics" helps deepen and contextualize traditional scouting, etc. And vice versa.
The one thing I'd say that has been revealed to have little value: some of the traditional stats. I find it kind of funny when people cling to them and accuse the stats people of being computer nerds. Pitcher wins (for example) are a stat, too, just not a very good one.
I'll add re stats: it's critical that you try to know the limits of what a stat can do when using it. Some proponents of them aren't always able to do that. And sometimes even well-intentioned people will fail despite best efforts (as I'm sure I do).