MLBTR Chat with Jeff Todd 1-7-16
What's on your mind?
Hmmm ... my avatar got flipped. Oh well.
If you we're AJ Preller, would you blow up the team and rebuild?
You know, I can't help but assume that this was really all part of the plan -- make a run at things last year and then go with the long-term plan if it didn't work out. Sort of a light version of what the Dodgers did/are doing.
But it still doesn't look great from my perspective. The problem, though, is ... what do you do to rebuild? Obviously you could get a great return for Tyson Ross, but otherwise, there aren't a lot of guys who you'd feel good moving right now.
So, I don't think I'm in favor of a full blow-up right now. But at mid-season? Maybe.
What kind of bench help could you see the Mets going after?
I'm still a bit surprised that they settled for Asdrubal and Alejandro up the middle. (I liked the Walker deal.) But there aren't really a lot of needs as things are structured, right? I mean, they are probably all but down to the last member of their bench. And they have options there.
So unless they fill out the bench by adding a starter and bumping others down to a reserve capacity, or swing some kind of trad, then I'm not sure there's really anything to do.
Do you see any way the Reds Trade Joey Votto?
Doesn't seem likely to happen, but they have to listen if someone comes calling with an offer that allows them to shed the salary and get something back to show to the fans.
Could be an injury situation, or mid-season need, that drives a team to make a push.
is my job in jeopardy or can i look suave, play half the time, and collect an overpriced paycheck?
It's in jeopardy. I think he'll end up starting the year as the starter, assuming health, and get some leash. But no promises.
How about you look suave and play like it's a contract year? Because it is!
Was Trevor Hoffman's results a bit stunning?
Guess you can put me in the camp of people who don't understand how he gets more support than Schilling.
Tigers counter that KC signed Gordon and make a play for a LF?
I see DET as one of the most likely teams to put a big payday out there, sure. But I don't think it would be in response to the Gordon signing.
If Atlanta ate 80% of Nick Swisher's salary, what could they realistically expect in return? Other than "not much"?
That makes him, like, a $3MM player. I guess you might find a taker at that price, but there's basically no scenario -- other than a first-half renaissance -- where ATL gets any value back in terms of players.
Dylan Bundy still on the O's roster by the end of the season?
Or the 60-day DL.
Why arnt the Nationals Going for a outfielder
Aren't they? Lots of names left.
Thoughts on the chances Cliff Lee signs with Cleveland? They are contenders and he will fill the number 5 spot nicely and have veteran presence.
Also, how about Upton signing a pillow contract with the tribe?
Well, they did sign Gavin Floyd. If they pulled off a deal for one of their guys, especially, it could make sense. Still, obviously, I wouldn't put money down on it.
As for Upton ... I don't know. There's a lot of talk about pillow contracts, but I'm not sure I see that as a reasonable scenario yet. People want to point to Cruz, but he was a veteran coming off of a non-superstar year. Upton's youth along makes for such a different situation.
Still not sold on Boston with Rusney, JBJ and the rest of the rotation behind Price. Thoughts?
There's some risk there, yeah. But we also tend to write in repeat performances for guys who had big seasons in the prior year. It's harder to, say, look at Porcello and Kelly from a scouting perspective and foresee nice turnarounds.
That's what they paid DD the big bucks to decide, I guess. They could still cash in some more prospects if needed this summer.
Who is going to be the NY Giants next head coach?
They moved to San Francisco years ago, and seem pretty set with Bochy.
How do you Feel about the Dodgers signing Maeda to an 8 year Deal?
Love it. Dude has been outstanding in Japan, and if he's even a solid arm over the life of the deal they should do quite nicely. Interesting strategy they have going on of rolling the dice on some good but (apparently) injury-prone arms.
Is there any other teams going for Chris Davis? If not what's taking so long for him to sign with the Os?
If there are, we haven't seen them really clearly identified. I will not be counting out Boras from pulling something out of his hat, though. (And that's the cause for the wait, I think.)
Bryce Harper to the yankees in FA inevitable?
Do you think the deal for Gordon dropped the asking price on the other outfield bats, and if so, will that bring more teams calling Upton and Cespedes?
I don't think that, no. For one thing, unique circumstances (veteran, single franchise, WS win, etc). For another, they are much different age/risk/upside propositions.
Also, remember: the Royals weren't going to sign JUp or Cespy. That means that all the teams that have interest in those teams didn't fill their needs with Gordon and still have the desire/cash they did before. That's good for those guys (and the next ones up - Fowler, Span, Parra, AJax, etc)
Who in the Dodgers rotation gets traded cuz im counting 5 spots for 6 guys maybe 7
Don't have to, but Wood seems most likely to be dealt. He could also become a high-leverage reliever or some kind of long man/swingman.
What kind of contract do you see steve pearce landing? how about dexter fowler?
Pearce ... 2/12-18? Dex ... still like for the 4/56-64 range.
Listening to the podcast I'm curious what would a trade for Cargo or Blackmon look like for them? Have to imagine White Sox would have nothing left in the farm, once again
There's always more than we think. For one thing, you could always put up Carson Fulmer, esp if you are getting someone back with some control. A guy like Erik Johnson could hold appeal. And there are probably dudes that I've basically never heard of who would be interesting, depending on what the Rockies want.
I still am not a huge believer in the value of either CarGo or Blackmon, and I'm not sure the Rockies will really find what they seem to be asking for.
Is it you or Steve that doesn't care for Gotham?
Is it you or Steve that doesn't care for Jordy Mercer?
You mean Cotham?
Either way, um, it's not me. Steve has irrational hatred for many things, I'm sure, but not sure about those guys in particular.
Who is tanking harder, the Reds or the Brewers?
It's an entertaining race to the bottom of the NL Central. Both still have one major, longer-term trade chip left. Fun times!
Seriously, though, they are doing what they have to.
Do you see the Yankees Packaging a Pineda or Nova + Gardner+ Mateo for a #2 Pitcher?
Quantity usually only equals quantity in prospect deals.
Ozuna for Gonzales, Adams, and Reyes
From the Cards? Sounds awfully steep.
Where could u see Austin Jackson ending up if it's a non contender?
Totally quiet market so far ... no idea, really, but I am sure there are teams ready to pounce once the top of the market clarifies.
Rox of Ages
How long does Walt Weiss last in Colorado?
It's still Dick Monfort's team, so he'll last as long as he's happy. Never can tell with him, but I'll go ahead and predict that Weiss is run out at a time that doesn't really make much sense.
Wow, you're not relenting on FA prices it seems. OK. I think there's no reason to still hold onto the notion that all these FAs are still going to get paid well, esp the ones tied to draft compensation. We see pretty clearly that teams have elevated the value of those picks.
I'm not saying they'll all get paid, but the fact that the market is still full of names doesn't really mean that nobody will. When we start out predicting salaries, we are talking about earning power. The market is a fickle thing, and some guys get left out. (Hence, Ervin settling for 1/15 a few years back when arguably lesser pitchers got multi-year deals.)
There's a very good chance that a few guys get left in the cold. But with all these players out there, that also suggests there's greater need, since they obviously all vacated spots with their prior clubs.
Re the draft value ... I agree to an extent, but also you have to remember that some teams will need to wait to know how to value their draft picks. E.g., if you are pursuing a top guy, but miss, then maybe you don't want to punt your top pick to sign a lesser player. But if you get the first guy, maybe you don't mind getting the second.
How often do you ignore a question because you don't know the answer?
All the time.
But really, there are so many, it's a matter of skimming til you find one for which a useful enough answer comes to mind.
Why do no writers think Jeff Bagwell juiced?
I think your question reveals the real issue here ... it's all a matter of what people think, based on how they feel about a host of random observations, etc.
I don't have strong feelings on the hall, but leaving people out when there's no clear proof of anything seems ridiculous to me.
Should the Braves trade Olivera at this point?
They are stuck with him for better or worse, I think, until he puts down more of a big league track record.
Javier Baez for James Shields straight up
Could I get Upton for 5 years at $120m?
Plausible ... you do have to wonder at what point Upton would jump at a big offer, even if it doesn't fully max out his value. Have to imagine personal preferences and risk tolerance, etc, would play in quite a bit though, so it's hard to predict.
How much do you make working for mlbtr
Send in your email so I can get you copies of my 1040.
How do you feel about the Shelby Miller trade ?
I feel like between it and the Greinke signing the D'Backs gave up way too much to get those guys. I agree with their approach -- it's a great time to strike for that org -- but just don't understand their specific choices.
I think it would be funny if someone elected to the hall admitted to.doing steriods. Simply as a result of the potential arguments it would arouse in writers
Earlier today, I was imagining someone copping to it during their induction speech and what the crowd would look like.
Not for Baez, but do you think the Marlins bite on Ozuna for Shields?
Okay, it seems we need to have a talk about the value of James Shields.
He is probably not really worth his contract. I'm sure lots of teams would love to have him in their rotation, but he's just not bringing back a quality young MLB player.
Cespedes for 105 mil/4yrs opt out after second year?
All bets are off now that opt outs are the rage!
Why wouldn't the Hall let Griffey wear his cap backwards? That would've been awesome!
U could of ignored the income question without answering it by ignoring it. LOL..Seriously though how much before taxes??
Less than my law firm used to pay me.
Bum,Johnny Cueto, and the shark! Is that scary ?
If they are all pitching at their career peak levels, then yeah, it sure is.
Do you agree with Halladay or Clemens?
I thought the Reds would get Rich Hill but didn't. Any thoughts on an FA that makes sense for them?
Rich Hill, circa Jan. 7, 2015.
Seriously, though, he's a guy that was being targeted by teams that were looking to win - but cheap. Like the A's. CIN is in a full rebuild.
It's true that most rebuilding teams need to add some veterans to fill out the 25-man, to an extent. But they seem pretty loaded with near-MLB guys who they want to battle it out, right? All over the infield, esp if they keep Phillips. Corner OF. Starters. They have options.
Do I trade Cj Wilson and go get cespedes?
Not sure that saving 4 or 6 or even 8 million on CJ is going to change the math enough, if they are really committed to staying under the lux tax.
There are undoubtedly PED users in the HoF already, right?
Depending upon how you define that, definitely. Or, if not that, then probably.
What is Chris Heston's (SF) trade value? Is he even worth including in a trade package (for Ozuna)?
As a throw-in, sure. When you've seen flashes of good performance and times of struggle, I think the best place to look to assess true talent is the player's own team. In this case, SFG seems to think he might be a long man or spot starter. If they believed in him, he'd be at least talked up as a guy who'll compete for a rotation spot this spring.
What about Bruce for Shields?
Why would guys like Jim Johnson and Kelly Johnson resign with the Braves knowing they will probably be traded again in July?
Because they have a shot (or maybe an outright verbal promise) that they'll get playing time/roles that they couldn't find right now on contenders. These guys want to play baseball, not sit around and lead the cheers on the bench -- if they even would get a guaranteed deal from many contenders. And if they perform, they'll get time on a contender and, if they keep performing, maybe a better opportunity next year.
Odd Halos trade a pitcher (CJ or Santiago) and sign LF FA?
The beat writers all seem to think they'll deal a pitcher, so I'm kind of assuming it'll happen. But there are so many scenarios -- who they trade, what they get back, etc -- that I'm not sure any predictions would be very well conceived.
Sleeper team this year is _______?
The Indians are a team that hasn't done much that's drawn notice but has a lot of talent.