MLBTR Chat with Jeff Todd 1-14-16
Jose Fernandez on the trading block or what?
Thanks for your time!
Hector Santiago/CJ Wilson and Nick Tropeano for Blackmon and LeMahieu. Who says no?
Well I hate to end on a hypothetical that I don't like, but ... no way. I'm not in love with either of those Rockies players, but they both look like better assets to me than any of the pitchers you are talking about.
Let me just say this on these two teams to wrap things up:
1) If the Angels want a quality OF that isn't going to bust their budget, they will have to part with Heaney or Skaggs;
2) the Rockies have some real flexibility here and are right to take their time finding the right match ... I wonder if just one arm is going to do enough to move the needle this year, though, so I still think I'd be in favor of trying for a return on CarGo that has a few good, less advanced arms
Do you see cricket star Kieran Powell ever making the big leagues? He held a large tryout yesterday in hopes of making the transition to baseball without ever playing at any level before.
Realistically? No. And I'm no hater of the sport -- I love international games.
This all makes me think of that clip from a few years back when softball pitching legend Jenny Finch just dominated MLB hittes. So much of the art of hitting is related to the deeply embedded, instant reactions that players have from seeing so many danged baseball pitches.
Cricket bowls and softball pitches move differently. So, there's a lot more than just the physical elements (assuming he has top-notch abilities in that regard).
Hi Jeff! Will Cincy trade Jay Bruce or has that ship sailed?
Seems less and less likely. Real question is whether there are any teams that are aching to take on that salary and plug him in right now. Not really looking like it to me.
Could be a situation where their best bet is to hope he has a big first half and then flip him. All the more appealing given the restricted supply we've seen at the deadline in the two-WC era.
Zach Wheeler for Moncada Who hangs up?
You know the biggest issue with prospect-for-prospect trades? (Or, in this case, a guy who is delayed from the big leagues and has similar uncertainties.) It's that there's no urgency to do them. You don't need to fit player X in at the major league level right now, because neither of them would be playing in the bigs right now.
In the rare circumstances they do go down, it tends to be near-term needs. Like, you could say the Souza for Ross/Turner element of last year's Myers+++ trade was a prospect swap. But they were all stepping right into MLB jobs or going to next-in-line type of spots.
How would you rate what the Giants have done this offseason
Really like Span. I'm sure they felt good about the scouting that went into Samardzija. Cueto is just such a wild card ... that could be a stroke of genius, or it could hurt in the long run. But look, that group has a lot of upside for what they paid. You could argue all were buy low type players, even at the big guarantees they landed. It wasn't inconceivably entering 2015 that it would have cost 60+ for Span, 130+ for Shark, and 150+ for Cueto.
Why does it still say you're answering that Jose Fernandez question?
No idea. My answer was:
No, I don't think he'll be traded. And I don't think he'll be extended, either.
Is Alexi the last move the Padres make? do you see/hear anything about them? A.J.'s been pretty quite
Don't see why it has to be. Again, dollars aren't reported yet, but I can't imagine he's going to cost so much that their hands will be tied to pick up another piece or two.
I just wrapped up 3 days of depositions -why am I doing this again?
Hey - are you me from three years ago? You can see how I answered the question!
Do you think my power is sustainable? Or was last year my career year?
You probably assume he steps back a bit but is still productive, right?
Will opt-outs become more common than club options in a few years?
Not more common. But this is all a product of the loosening of constraints on how deals are structure. Increased creativity. It's the money flowing in, but teams looking for ways other than *more guaranteed money* to entice players to sign.
I talked about this a bit way back when on the podcast. Other indications are things like the Hector Olivera deal, the Dodgers' manic international spending, the Nationals' repeated contract deferrals. It's the wild west, and it's awesome.
Rockies just said that CarGo isn't going to be traded this off season. Blackmon , Dickerson or neither gets traded before Opening Day?
They did not say that. Bridich reportedly told CarGo not to worry about the rumors. From everything Bridich has shown us, he's not going to just rule out a move like that.
Roch Kubatko @masnRoch
Per industry source, #orioles have made offer to Cespedes. Seem to prefer him over Upton at the moment. Nothing new on Chris Davis.
Mike Trout or Clayton Kershaw, which do you prefer?
Trout. The answer is always Trout.
Of course, Kershaw could also end up being one of the very best pitchers ever. Love them both.
Chris Davis has to be better than 50/50 to go back to the Os, right?
In my mind, yeah.
How much value does Alex Wood have on the trade market?
A fair bit, I think. Obviously he's got the questions we've always heard about, but he's been fine and pretty effective. A lot of teams would love to have a cheap and productive arm like that in their rotation.
Answer a Marlins qestion man
Just did much of our podcast on the Marlins, but yes, I should do that.
Is Todd your real last name?
Um, yes. Is it that hard to believe?!
Nathan Karns... James Paxton... 6 Man Rotation, or is someone 'pen bound?
Has any team really ever started the year with a 6-man rotation, let alone run with that all year long? Something is going to give - ST injury, someone struggles, a need opens in the pen and it makes more sense to use player X there, etc.
Who is a good team that no one is talking about?
Cliff Lee to Cubs on a one year deal ?
One of the teams I've thought of, yes. Travis Wood makes that nice swingman to pair with Lee. But there are lots of others, too.
Trade you really want to see happen is....
Carrasco. I want him to go somewhere, anywhere. Because that would mean someone is really betting on him with a legit young OF, probably, and it would be a fun deal to track.
Marlon Byrd to the Nats to platoon with Revere?
Harper is the RF. Werth/Revere/Taylor will mix around for the rest of the ABs. They tendered Tyler Moore. Just no fit at all.
The Rays HAVE to get a bat, right?
There's been a lot of chatter about that. But they did already get Miller and LoMo, if you are buying into their stock. Still seems like they will pull something off eventually -- they have so many different kinds of pitching assets that it just stands to reason something will line up.
Soler for Inciarte?
Status on Doug Fister?
Crickets. He'll have his moment, though.
How do you think Hector Santiago would be valued on the trade market?
Not all that highly, really. I mean, look, this is a world where Kyle Kendrick gets over 5 million dollars (last year). So, he's got excess value, even if you don't believe he'll come anything close to repeating his results. But I don't see him drawing a really top young OF or anything.
It seems like everybody thought revere for storen would be a good swap, and it happened. Are Atkins and Shapiro in this chat right now?
Good reminder ... whoever it was that asked about that specific scenario last week, my hat is off to you!
Obviously losing Zach Greinke was a big blow, but with the moves they have made have the Dodgers put together a solid enough rotation to compete next year?
At what value could you see me dipping into the Upton/Cespedes market?
Cards could be a nice fit for one of these 3/80 + one-year opt-out scenarios, if it comes to that. Not sure I see them going up into the 6/130 type of range though.
What other moves do you see the Dodgers making?
Well, I don't know, but I do have one firm prediction: they'll sign lots of young Cubans before next July.
I'm predicting scary things for the Orioles rotation this year... Agree?
Yeah you have to wonder if the metrics will catch up. It's hard to love that staff. Maybe Gausman breaks out, though?
Jeff Todd's Beard
What is your beard routine? Oils?
Can a trade of Refsnyder get me Nick Tropeano ??
Neither seems too exciting to me -- famous last words, right? -- but I'm also not sure either really moves the needle the way the opposing team would want/need.
What do you think of the Padres' signing?
Seems smart, without knowing the $$$. I love Ian Desmond, but I'm not sure he made the most sense for that organization. (Though I did think SDP was the likeliest team to sign him.) Every possibility that Alexei bounces back and has a solid year -- at least, it's a reasonable risk to take.
Do you see Cliff Lee making an impact this year? If so, for who?
I'll keep beating the Cliff Lee drum. Desperately want to watch him pitch. But who? No idea. Seems he might want a greater promise ($/rotation opportunity) than most contenders can give.
But if you are sitting there with a few 5th starter candidates who could also go to the pen or to Triple-A, why not promise him some cash and a rotation spot to open the year and see what happens? Then you just hope for the best and fill in with in-house options or via trade as needed.
Teheran and Inciarte for Springer and Bregman???
I don't really see why the Astros would do this. I'd rather take Springer's upside, and Teheran is a risk of his own but at a higher cost.
When the Inciarte rumor came up -- which, let's remember, is really a light connection -- my thought went to whether Springer could be dangled for a premium starter. (As in, part of a deal for Carrasco.) I don't see why they'd part with him in this kind of scenario.
Why is Tyler Clippard still out there and what is realistic on his market now?
We really haven't heard much chatter on him at all. I think a lot of clubs would commit good money on a one-year deal, just because it's a limited risk and you know where your budget stands late in the winter.
I'm not sure how to make a prediction, really. Could be there are several teams poking around with two or three year interest and he ends up nearer where we might've expected. Or maybe everyone agrees he has too much mileage and it caught up last year.
Can Johnathon Lucroy bring premium talent in return this winter still?
If Stearns could get what they think is a legitimate return for him now, without taking the risk of running him out there for the first half, I think he would. I just don't think any teams are willing to roll a big enough wager on his health right now, so Milwaukee is doing the gambling that he'll return to form (and that needs will open up somewhere over the season).
C is for Cookie, is that good enough for you?
My son loves you! Thanks for writing in.
What can Boston do with Rusney Castillo?
Let him play and see what happens. Prospects in the holster for deadline moves as necessary.
Braves done Dealing?
I already answered a Braves question. Stop repeating this poor question, please.
Please give me something to be excited about as a Reds fan. Anything...
If a couple of these young pitchers make it, they could have something brewing. If there is excess, can always trade them.
Plus, it's fun to see what Hamilton and Mesoraco will be able to do. Even Homer Bailey! And you still have old favs Votto and Phillips.
I think their more recent moves have steered them clear of the real disaster potential.
Would it be crazy for the Phillies to sell high on Odubel? They have Goedel, Bourjos, Asche, Altherr and Sweeney for the OF with Williams and Quinn on the way
No, not crazy, but you have to find someone who believes his 2015 is his mean going forward. I've not seen any indication that other teams do. Barring some kind of ridiculous return, I think they are better off seeing for themselves if he's a guy who could be a legit first division regular, freeing them to ramp up spending in other areas in the near future.
Any more moves for the Dodgers? Kendrick coming back?
I really never saw the merit to that, myself, at least once they sort of committed to the Hernandez/Utley platoon at second.
His market is kind of hard to figure right now.
Do you think the Jays are going to add another starter to the rotation?
Well, our old friend Ben Nicholson-Smith just reported on continuing interest in Gallardo. Not sure I see the need, myself, but I'd be all for it if a good opportunity arises.
The Nats payroll after projected arb and dead money should be about 25mill below where they were last year. Do you see them making another big move or will Rizzo keep some bullets in the holster to fire midseason after he was handcuffed by payroll last year? Seems like it may be better to be prepared to acquire what you know you will need midseason, rather than what you think you need in the winter
Nats are in a good position to wait at this point, I think. Not sure if they'll hold back salary or not, though ... I do think they kind of set the budget each year, and last season may have been a high water mark they won't go near in 2016.
What is a realistic return I can get for Khris Davis once the outfield market sorts itself out a bit?
Not as much as Brewers fans would hope. My sense is just that nobody really sees him as a consistent, everyday 120 OPS bat type of guy. That could change if he does it this year, but not sure it makes sense for the Brewers to just get what they can for him now.
If he was more highly sought after, I think you'd see more interest happening earlier in the offseason.
Most improved team from 2015 to 2016? Most improved for long term?
Red Sox are an easy choice, in large part b/c they just performed so poorly. Similarly, A's, M's, Marlins could see big jumps in the W-L department, partially from their moves but also just how "bad" they were in 2015.
Long term, I like what the Braves have done on the whole. Hard to argue (for me) with the way the Cubs have gone about things.