Chat With Tim Dierkes 9-15-15
Chat about MLB news and rumors with MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes.
Hello! We are testing out some new chat software, and your MLB questions are welcome!
Is Ellsbury's contract unmovable? Or is there at least a bad-contract for bad-contract swap possibility in the offseason?
He's not a $22MM guy and what should have been the best two years of his contract have passed, so I do think the Yankees would have to pay down 30% of it to make it palatable. It's not among the worst bad contracts, but I agree that he has little trade value this winter.
Seems you still think Heyward out-earns Cespedes as a FA? Why?
Heyward being four years younger or so is a pretty huge difference...you're signing up for much more of his prime than Cespedes'. I think eight years is on the table for Heyward, or even nine or ten if he wants to drop the AAV and go for max dollars. With Cespedes, I could see some team reaching for seven or potentially everyone stopping at six. So even if Heyward is eight years at $22MM per, and Cespedes is seven years at $25MM per, Heyward still earns more. That extra year would be hard to overcome.
Also, I just think Heyward is the better player.
Do you think the cubs would be interested in Jordan Zimmerman this winter?
I imagine they'll check in on him. Two concerns I imagine an analytical-type front office would have with him: he's not a huge strikeout guy, and he had Tommy John surgery six years ago. 1,000 post-TJ innings - does that mean that surgery is no longer a concern at all, or that he's used up much of his mileage at the time he'll want a six-year deal?
Could see the Cubs approaching Zimmermann as they did Shields, meaning only on their terms. Like a strong four-year offer.
Your thoughts on the timing of GM dismissals this year? Seems like the teams allowed the outgoing GM's to do the heavy lifting before removing them.
I guess this issue is that there may never be a "good time" to remove your GM. You don't know exactly how long it will take to find the long-term replacement, and you're kind of in limbo while you look even though a team always needs a GM. I suppose if I was running a team, I wouldn't want a lame-duck GM doing anything, but owners have let them do plenty historically.
Presupposing the Mets *do* want to trade Harvey this offseason, what kind of packaged would he command? Would they go more for prospects or established major leaguers?
Three years of prime-age Matt Harvey. The return has to be led by a similar star player, an established Major Leaguer probably with 3+ years of control in his own right. And since the only reason to really consider it is because you'd rather have a position player, I guess that should be the expectation.
As to exactly which players might make sense, I'd have to do some digging. Guys like Charlie Blackmon, Dee Gordon, Yasmani Grandal, Manny Machado, and A.J. Pollock are at least in his service class.
Are you slow at typing or are you blaming the software?
I needed some time on that Harvey question, sorry. But this is a good time to ask for feedback on this software....
I don't love the software. There I said it.
What kind of contract would Joakim soria command considering that he is a set up man but has over 200 career saves?
I figure Soria will want to exceed Luke Gregerson money (3 years, $18.5MM) but can't justify a fourth year. The Brandon League contract seems about right (3/22.5).
Another Hot Dog
The reverse scroll is annoying. I vastly preferred the IRC style scroll (I know, dating myself) of the prior software. Having the comment box at the bottom (static) with the expandable rolling text is ideal. This reads like a 'tweener's blog, poorly.
So you would like the new stuff to appear below the question. I know that at least the transcript appears that way. I think.
I think we're so used to the other style that this is just too different. It also seems like there is a disconnect between host and chatters in it instead of just being in the same thing. I don't know what I'm trying to say.
Hmm, I'm not sure either!
Do you think the big budget contracts will ever slow down in this money rich environment?
I'm no economist, but I do think there must be some sort of (potentially large) bubble that has to burst. I mean, anecdotally, I'm not sure I've noticed MLB to be super-popular, and definitely not with kids as compared to when I was one in the 80s and 90s. I understand on a basic level that the TV contracts drive it, and live sports is one remaining way ads can be forced on people...but at some point people liking baseball less than they did a decade ago should probably result in a slowdown of the money coming into the sport.
I guess what I'm trying to say is I prefer the coveritlive style.
I think the main difference there might be the ordering of the question scroll. But CiL has gotten really expensive for what they offer.
I dont like that you have to scroll up and then read down for the answer, too herky jerky. prefer the old style, or downward scrolling
Thanks for taking time to do all this greatly appreciated, what do you think Cubs will do with castro? I feel like they should wait it out until next year's TD to let him build value?
Hmm, I think he's as good as gone this offseason. Not having brought him into the organization, I think Theo will find him easier to let go. I don't think an awkward situation for a few months in 2016 is going to increase his trade value. He is what he is.
Exactly what saku said, re: new system
I realize the Yankees are not really hitting BUT I think they need to sign a Pitcher like Price. What do you think they need to look at during the off season.
I suppose on the position player side, Ben Zobrist could make sense. The injury risk of the 2016 position players is enormous, so a guy you can plug in anywhere could anticipate that. However, Zobrist himself on a four-year deal is kind of adding fuel to the fire. For example, part of the 2016 problem is that the Yankees stretched to give Beltran the third year.
To your point, they do need to add rotation stability. They can at least see the tail end of Sabathia's deal, even though that 2017 option seems likely to vest. So they should entertain Price and Greinke, and I like the contract Price would sign more.
Come on...am i REALLY gonna go anywhere else than stay with the NY METS?? I see their pitching 1st hand, i see their up and coming bats, im OWNING the crowds, the media loves me, and i can hit in that pssht, "pitcher's park" Citifield... as long as the don't lowball, i ain't go nowhere, SON!
This is a guy who specifically, and surprisingly, took less money on his first contract to preserve his shot at prime-age MLB free agency. Cespedes, like 90% of top free agents, will be looking for maximum dollars, plain and simple. Been a while since the Mets won a FA bidding war like that, but made a playoff run could change that.
I actually don't think signing him will be prudent.
Chances of the Jays resigning Price if they put up the money now that Shapiro is president?
Toronto, unfortunately, almost always has to overpay to win free agent bidding. I imagine that would be the case with Price. If the Jays and Yankees each offer him $220MM, he's probably taking the Yankees. I could be wrong - I'm not in his head.
With the questions surrounding Bethancourt, how realistic is a Wieters to Atlanta? And would we want him (he's seems a bit overrated)?
It's mostly nonsensical to me. I mean, I can see how an agent might pitch that, and the Braves did oddly sign Markakis at the market price. But if you sign Wieters with his question marks to a four or five-year deal at top dollar, as one expects with Boras, you have to really value that first year (his age 30 season). With the Braves likely to be bad in 2016, you're burning the most important part of the FA contract. It's just such a bad idea. A little bit like the Cubs signing Edwin Jackson: "We think he'll still be good when we start being good." EJax was never good, but the general idea was flawed.
no no...prudent schmudent, Mets gimme the best chance at winning...use this vast technology that IS "the new mlbtr chat" to start a petition to get me to stay in Queens....6 years, 160... booYAKA
Hey, that's not a bad offer from the player point of view. And you actually have a point - why should fans care? Winning now is way more fun, and he should be good for a few more years at least. I'm not being sarcastic.
What do the Marlins need to do to contend with the rebounding Nationals and the mighty Mets in 2016?
They really need quite a bit...rotation is thin, and while the outfield still looks OK, they're lacking in the IF outside of Dee Gordon. You could burn $300MM on free agents and I'm not sure this team would contend. And I'm not sure they will be super popular for top free agents.
I actually don't mind the software - especially if it saves you guys money. my nitpick would be that its ugly, but the functionality works just fine. I see a question, and I see your response. Thats basically all you want it to do!
Yeah, we can work a bit on the ugly part. It could just be something where chatters haven't gotten used to it yet. Plus, more people may read the transcripts than participate live, which makes sense since it's only for an hour.
Using something like this would also enable us to move to two regular chats per week, which we can't do under CiL.
What teams are best built for contention in the next 2-3 years?
You'll have to excuse the Cubs fan in me, but they're one. Astros jump out. Cards and Pirates seem built to last. Imagine if the Astros had remained in the NL Central? Red Sox have a lot of good young players. Dodgers and Mets are in good shape.
I agree that the Marlins' biggest need is the rotation (I don't see them doing much with the infield, unless they replace Justin Bour for some reason). What might they do to pick up starters - trade, or sign mid-tier FA?
I picture trades as their most likely path, because it removes the whole issue of convincing a Mike Leake to play for them. Given that they are sour on Ozuna, that's the place to start.
Who do you see the Tigers targeting this offseason?
Starting pitching and relief help, I would think. I haven't analyzed their payroll closely, but lot of money on the books as always. Seems like they might need multiple SPs.
David Price to the Cubs this offseason. Book it. Joe and him have history. The Cubs have the money and are ready to win now. A 1-2-3 of Price, Lester, & Arrieta would be insane. Built for the playoffs. Am I right here??
No reason the Cubs shouldn't at least be involved. I think Arrieta will leave after 2017 anyway, so it could make some sense if the Cubs are willing to have that much committed to Lester and Price. It's not as if they have a robust pipeline of MLB-ready pitching prospects.
Seems like Baseball is now the number 3 or 4 sport. Will this change or has our society in need of a faster more violent game?
I think the powers that be have recognized the need to shorten the games. But I wouldn't expect fundamental changes, especially geared toward violence. While I do think its revenue growth has to slow, the sport is still healthy and it doesn't really matter if other sports are more popular.
With the money coming off the books do the twins spend on tier one pitcher. Price
Hard to picture a less Twins move than signing Price, but they did extend themselves on Ervin. They'll be past $80MM once arb raises are accounted for, so I don't see them adding any $25MM players. Maybe a $15MM player.
How much does your wife hate sports?
She doesn't hate them, she just has little interest in them. I can generally get some mild baseball interest out of her come October though.
My only "beef" with this new format is it looks too much like a chat room. I could use the CiL version at work because it was discrete... this is too obvious I'm not doing my work.
Any way to change it?
I suppose that is due to the avatars and live-ness of it? Not sure I could do anything there. May I introduce you to Alt-Tab though, the quickest way to bounce into a spreadsheet when you detect your boss approaching through a carefully placed reflective surface.
With that, I have to close up shop for today. Thanks for jumping in on this impromptu chat. If you could give further feedback on the software in the comments of the post, it would be much appreciated.